4/5 (HAW): Illinois Derby (Gr. II)

[IrishofNDMan]

7th (4:30) Illinois Derby (G2)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 1 Recapturetheglory Baird E T Roussel, III Louie J 122 L 8-1
2 2 Instill Emigh C A Wainwright John C 122 L 15-1
3 3 Z Humor Douglas R R Mott William I 122 L 3-1
4 4 Atoned Bravo J Pletcher Todd A 122 L 4-1
5 5 Denis of Cork Leparoux J R Carroll David 122 L 2-1
6 6 Golden Spikes Thornton T Wolfson Martin D 122 Blk-Off L 5-1
7 7 Real Appeal Graham J Amoss Thomas 122 L 8-1

[jcs11204]

3,4/3,4/7

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

3,4/3,4/7

throwing DofC out, not a wise move.

[hockey2315]

DofC should CRUSH these. . . but i'm starting to get off his bandwagon. . .

[Scav]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

throwing DofC out, not a wise move.

IT IS FINE. he is a bigger mush then you are...

[brianwspencer]

Just based on style, I'd be tempted to give Golden Spikes another shot after liking him in the FOY.

The track hasn't been exactly the conveyor belt up front and inside that it has been in years past, but closing out of the clouds isn't generally a really good idea. Someone within a length or two at the quarter pole should win it, and Golden Spikes might be the one, at a decent price.

Yay a 7 horse derby prep.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Yay a 7 horse derby prep.

Pretty surprised that it only got 7, think people are thinking that Denis of Cork is the real deal.

Brian, that track will be cooked on Saturday, you know as well as I do.

Also note, the return of Louis Roussel III, or at least his name on the program. My guess is that Lara is still doing all the work but he always wins races in Chicago, I would consider Recapturetheglory a little in your exotics....

Why would any owner or trainer with half a sack be scared of Denis of Cork?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Why would any owner or trainer with half a sack be scared of Denis of Cork?

He was pretty fast last time, I don't know, but I doubt he loses against that field....

Originally Posted by Scav

He was pretty fast last time, I don't know, but I doubt he loses against that field....

Just looking at Derby contender pp's I'd say he'll have a hard time catching Atoned if the early pace isn't retarded like it was in the Southwest.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

3,4/3,4/7

Com' on Kryptonite!! Com' on Kryptonite!!

[miraja2]

There are three 8.5f races at Hawthorne on Saturday before the 9f Illinois Derby.
I think it is unwise to settle on how you are going to play this race until you see the results of those three races and can better determine how the track is playing that day.
As Scav seemed to suggest, it seems that the Hawthorne course sometimes plays slightly differently on Illinois Derby day than it does at other times of the meet.........especially if the horses have to contend with ostrich turds in the stretch, as they have in years past.

[swedejxn]

Ostrich turds... that's priceless miraj...

DoCork's recent works AT CHURCHILL... look like Carroll trying to put a little speed in him so he won't close from way way back... Think it's his to lose..
Atoned had a good one first off layoff but just gave out... should be pretty tight for this one... Real Appeal is my value horse 11/24 was a good race.. jumped start and 8 wide???? and then a nice run in Tex Heritage off break...
nice recent work at FG and then under the spires...

[Scav]

Originally Posted by miraja2

There are three 8.5f races at Hawthorne on Saturday before the 9f Illinois Derby.
I think it is unwise to settle on how you are going to play this race until you see the results of those three races and can better determine how the track is playing that day.
As Scav seemed to suggest, it seems that the Hawthorne course sometimes plays slightly differently on Illinois Derby day than it does at other times of the meet.........especially if the horses have to contend with ostrich turds in the stretch, as they have in years past.

Are they having the ostrich racing again, those are pretty classic right there

[Travis Stone]

This race is not exactly packed with speed, on a track which can go speed crazy overnight. It's that reason why I cannot toss Golden Spikes after looking at the race. Otherwise, he's holding something similar to the O2X figure pattern and is sitting on a massive regression.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by swedejxn

look like Carroll trying to put a little speed in him so he won't close from way way back....

Even though he was almost 20 lengths off the pace with four furlongs to go in the Southwest - he was still in mid-pack, in front of more than half of the rest of the field.

Sacred Journey - who is better suited to quarter horse distances than two turn route races......had run off to such an insane margin through such a strong pace that it made everyone from the 4th place finisher back appear to be doing more closing than they really were.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by miraja2

There are three 8.5f races at Hawthorne on Saturday before the 9f Illinois Derby.
I think it is unwise to settle on how you are going to play this race until you see the results of those three races and can better determine how the track is playing that day.
As Scav seemed to suggest, it seems that the Hawthorne course sometimes plays slightly differently on Illinois Derby day than it does at other times of the meet.........especially if the horses have to contend with ostrich turds in the stretch, as they have in years past.

I think the 4th race may give a hint on the 'type' of track we're dealing with. A couple of solid frontrunners and some mid-pack and closers as well. The first is a $4000 claimer and the second is a straight maiden affair. Not sure either of those will be too reliable. I just haven't seen horses make up a ton of ground in the stretch so far at the meet.

[lemoncrush]

If the track is souped up with the inside bias, I'll consider playing Recapture the glory at a nice price. If it looks to be playing fair, I may take a stab at the outside horse, Real Appeal. He nearly won the the KJC last fall with a brutal trip, but I'm wondering how "key" that race really is, with regards to how Anal Nakal and Blackberry Road have failed to progress as many expected.

[favoritetrick]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

DofC should CRUSH these. . . but i'm starting to get off his bandwagon. . .

Not feeling good about Denis of Cork - what I'm hearing second hand from Carroll is that this is not his race choice. His hands are tied - he doesn't listen to the Warrens and the horse is taken away from him, he follows orders and the horse runs bad there and he's to blame.

Besides, he doesn't need to win this race. A 3rd place finish would give him $40,000 and lift his earnings to $190K, which should be sufficient to make the field.