3rd Derby Future Book Wager

[Kasept]

Horse (trainer) Sts. 1-2-3 Earnings Odds Last start

1. +Adriano (Motion) 7 3-1-0 $387,700 20-1 1st Lane's End
2. +Atoned (Pletcher) 8 2-5-0 $196,757 30-1 2nd Tampa Bay Derby
3. +Big Brown (R.Dutrow) 3 3-0-0 $662,700 3-1 1st Florida Derby
4. +Big Truck (Tagg) 7 3-1-1 $336,880 20-1 1st Tampa Bay Derby
5. Blackberry Road (Carroll) 9 1-2-2 $158,235 50-1 4th Louisiana Derby

6. Bob Black Jack (Kasparoff) 6 3-1-1 $292,925 30-1 3rd San Felipe
7. Colonel John (Harty) 5 3-2-0 $375,300 12-1 1st Sham
8. Cool Coal Man (Zito) 7 4-1-0 $307,531 15-1 1st Fountain of Youth
9. Court Vision (Mott) 5 3-1-1 $292,542 20-1 3rd Fountain of Youth
10. Denis of Cork (Carroll) 3 3-0-0-0 $198,552 15-1 1st Southwest
11. El Gato Malo (C. Dollase) 4 3-1-0 $200,200 12-1 2nd Sham

12. Gayego (Lobo) 4 2-2-0 $123,420 30-1 2nd San Felipe
13. +Liberty Bull (Amoss) 6 3-2-1 $403,592 50-1 1st WinStar Derby
14. +My Pal Charlie (Stall) 6 2-1-0 $161,310 50-1 2nd Louisiana Derby
15. Pyro (Asmussen) 6 3-2-1 $1,056,718 4-1 1st Louisiana Derby
16. +Salute the Sarge (Guillot) 7 4-2-0 $333,340 50-1 1st San Miguel
17. Smooth Air (Stutts) 7 3-2-2 $395,500 50-1 2nd Florida Derby
18. Tale of Ekati (Tagg) 5 2-1-0 $319,200 30-1 6th Louisiana Derby

19. Tomcito (Zanelli) 6 4-1-1 $$154,139 30-1 3rd Florida Derby
20. Visionaire (Matz) 5 3-1-1 $228,260 20-1 1st Gotham
21. War Pass (Zito) 6 5-0-0 $1,433,400 6-1 7th Tampa Bay Derby
22. Yankee Bravo (Gallagher) 4 3-0-1 $202,049 30-1 3rd La. Derby
23. Z Fortune (Asmussen) 5 3-1-0 $186,600 50-1 5th Rebel
24. All other 3-year-olds 15-1

[ShadowRoll]

Some fairly interesting 50-1 shots here.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ShadowRoll

Some fairly interesting 50-1 shots here.

Battaglia is all over the place. I never understand his line-making with this thing at all.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Battaglia is all over the place. I never understand his line-making with this thing at all.

I never understood their choices, either- Adriano's connections SPECIFICALLY stated it is unlikely he goes- why not use the slot on someone else?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

I never understood their choices, either- Adriano's connections SPECIFICALLY stated it is unlikely he goes- why not use the slot on someone else?

Generally agree with that, but as it happens, Don Adam now leaning towards running Adriano. That is as of yesterday via some first hand info...

Motion isn't worried about the horse handling the dirt. He's worried about him becoming unglued because of the commotion. He told me off the air that he doubts the colt can handle the Derby atmosphere.

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Generally agree with that, but as it happens, Don Adam now leaning towards running Adriano. That is as of yesterday via some first hand info...

Motion isn't worried about the horse handling the dirt. He's worried about him becoming unglued because of the commotion. He told me off the air that he doubts the colt can handle the Derby atmosphere.

Holy cow...now that's valuable inside info!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Generally agree with that, but as it happens, Don Adam now leaning towards running Adriano. That is as of yesterday via some first hand info...

Motion isn't worried about the horse handling the dirt. He's worried about him becoming unglued because of the commotion. He told me off the air that he doubts the colt can handle the Derby atmosphere.

Hmmm... interesting. Motion's a damn good trainer and probably knows what's best for his horse- it's amazing more unruly types don't fall apart in the paddock at the Derby, which makes ME come unglued!!!

I guess I feel since like the DFW could be such a great thing with a little bit of work, that we've discussed ad nauseum, that in its current state it's fairly irrelevant.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I guess I feel since like the DFW could be such a great thing with a little bit of work, that we've discussed ad nauseum, that in its current state it's fairly irrelevant.

I don't remember those discussions, Phil. Can you give me a quick recap?

This year's pool total for Pools 1 & 2 is the smallest since the first year, 1999. I'm not sure why that is, other than some platforms like YouBet not taking the wager. Is it really so much harder to bet it now than it was in 2000? Or is Churchill Downs promoting it less than they did in the early years?

I'm a little worried Churchill is going to drop it entirely.

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't remember those discussions, Phil. Can you give me a quick recap?

This year's pool total for Pools 1 & 2 is the smallest since the first year, 1999. I'm not sure why that is, other than some platforms like YouBet not taking the wager. Is it really so much harder to bet it now than it was in 2000? Or is Churchill Downs promoting it less than they did in the early years?

I'm a little worried Churchill is going to drop it entirely.

--Dunbar

Basically the thought is how useless having only 23 single entries is, and how easy it would be to include ALL TC nominated horses, which would provide the value required of a future bet. Right now there isn't anything to gain by betting into this future pool other than pride.

[fpsoxfan]

Visionaire has piqued my interest. Where do you folks think he ends up?
Below or above 20-1?

[hockey2315]

Above 20-1 but he won't get the distance. Cool Coal Man will offer the most value when the pool closes imo.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Visionaire has piqued my interest. Where do you folks think he ends up?
Below or above 20-1?

Got him in the 2nd pool.....even though some laughed at me, still think he's a good longshot.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Above 20-1 but he won't get the distance. Cool Coal Man will offer the most value when the pool closes imo.

I took CCM in the 2nd pool... $55.40 payout for $2.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Basically the thought is how useless having only 23 single entries is, and how easy it would be to include ALL TC nominated horses, which would provide the value required of a future bet. Right now there isn't anything to gain by betting into this future pool other than pride.

I'm not sure that's a good idea. Having 400+ entries would mean chaos in the odds. There will be so little money bet on 90% of the horses that you'll have to hope no one else is betting at the last minute like you are.

I also disagree that the current structure can't offer value. In fact, I'm quite certain it can and regularly does offer value.

--Dunbar

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm not sure that's a good idea. Having 400+ entries would mean chaos in the odds. There will be so little money bet on 90% of the horses that you'll have to hope no one else is betting at the last minute like you are.

I also disagree that the current structure can't offer value. In fact, I'm quite certain it can and regularly does offer value.

--Dunbar

I agree with this, and think their might be a happy medium somewhere along the lines of maybe 80-100 horses, at least in the first pool. I think the 3rd pool overall is kind of a bad idea. Maybe just have one pool in early March that would make it more of an event?

Plus, anyone who has access to a Vegas sportsbook can usually get a great price on derby hopefuls they like anytime between October and March

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm not sure that's a good idea. Having 400+ entries would mean chaos in the odds. There will be so little money bet on 90% of the horses that you'll have to hope no one else is betting at the last minute like you are.

I also disagree that the current structure can't offer value. In fact, I'm quite certain it can and regularly does offer value.

--Dunbar

I can assure you handle would be MUCH higher if 400 entries were available. For example... what if you liked Big Brown back in January? Too bad- you're stuck with "all others" at 4-1. Or in 2004, what if you liked Smarty Jones? Too bad, again, you're stuck punching the "all others" at 4-1.

I'd like to see one time where someone actually got the value they were looking for out of the future pool. Funny Cide... MAYBE.

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I agree with this, and think their might be a happy medium somewhere along the lines of maybe 80-100 horses, at least in the first pool. I think the 3rd pool overall is kind of a bad idea. Maybe just have one pool in early March that would make it more of an event?

Plus, anyone who has access to a Vegas sportsbook can usually get a great price on derby hopefuls they like anytime between October and March

Not anymore you can't. Any horse that shows a HINT of ability instantly drops to 25-1... which isn't value in a future wager.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I can assure you handle would be MUCH higher if 400 entries were available. For example... what if you liked Big Brown back in January? Too bad- you're stuck with "all others" at 4-1. Or in 2004, what if you liked Smarty Jones? Too bad, again, you're stuck punching the "all others" at 4-1.

I'd like to see one time where someone actually got the value they were looking for out of the future pool. Funny Cide... MAYBE.

Phil, it's a 16% takeout. Same as race day. Just like on race day, some horses will be overhyped and some will be overlooked. And some people are kind enough to toss money in the future pool even though the horse they are betting on will run before the pool closes. (How much will be bet on War Pass, El Gato Malo, et al before they race this weekend?!) That doesn't happen on race day. Some bets are probably going to have value. All the usual complaints (horses might not make it into the starting gate, etc) don't change the underlying vig. If you truly think no individual horse has value, then "all others" would likely have value.

--Dunbar

[hailrazer]

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

I'll take the field at 15-1 and hope Eight Belles goes in the derby.

That's TERRIBLE value

[Scurlogue Champ]

I have a feeling that the limit of 24 could have something to do with tote...