4/5 (AQU): Gr. I Wood & Carter; Bay Shore; Excelsior

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by philcski

In my opinion, pedigree is a great tool to determine what should happen when horses try new things, but once he/she attempts a new task that actual performance should take precedence over pedigree.

Precisely. Kona Gold was bred to win the Belmont, but he was best sprinting. Genetics can be such a funny thing at times - a recessive chestnut shows up after 2 or 3 generations of dominant bays and browns (a Secretariat, for instance); a genuine stayer shows up from a family of sprinter/milers because he takes after dad (Round Table, Damascus).

I liken it to a slot machine with dozens of wheels - you can have lots of stamina, or early maturity, or speed, or good lungs, or good legs on an individual wheel to improve the odds, but there is always the chance that they won't come up for this particular animal.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

weather.com says the rain will stop around 10am in NY today. With temps in the 50s and a breeze, it should dry out the track by the time the Wood is run.

--Dunbar

I like Court Vision in this race, albeit the price will stink. His entrymate will be the one who will beat War Pass, a horse I wont be using at all. Its a tough 4 race sequence and I have to single in at least one race to make this worthwhile. To me Court Vision the most logical single.
War Pass hasnt shown he can rate, and he will have to rate behind Inner Light to win this. At a suspected price of even money, no thanks!

[AeWingnut]

Just read that War Pass had an eventful flight and had to have stiches put in his chin. Another excuse?

I say toss him. Of course - everyone already has.

and thanks for mushing my horse jcs...

tossing Court Vision now

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Gander

I like Court Vision in this race, albeit the price will stink. His entrymate will be the one who will beat War Pass, a horse I wont be using at all. Its a tough 4 race sequence and I have to single in at least one race to make this worthwhile. To me Court Vision the most logical single.
War Pass hasnt shown he can rate, and he will have to rate behind Inner Light to win this. At a suspected price of even money, no thanks!

Timmy?

[Storm Cadet]

New York, New York
Partly sunny. Cool.
54°
Feels Like 46°


Wind Speed: 9 mph
Wind Direction: Northwest
Humidity: 82%
Visibility: 5.00 mi
Barometer: 29.88 in
Dew Point: 48°

Nice outside now, should be close to 60 today at the Big A

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Just read that War Pass had an eventful flight and had to have stiches put in his chin. Another excuse?

I say toss him. Of course - everyone already has.

and thanks for mushing my horse jcs...

tossing Court Vision now

I don't remember Zito making any excuses for War Pass's performance the last time.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Timmy?

What? You didnt think I was capable of liking a horse trained by Bill Mott?

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Gander

What? You didnt think I was capable of liking a horse trained by Bill Mott?

A Gander siting! Welcome back.

[CSC]

Just watched a random amount of replays from Aqueduct since they moved to the outer track, it looks to be favoring speed, horses in the 3 path certainly seem to be getting the best of it.

[Storm Cadet]

NYRA just announced that currently the track is listed as MUDDY...no rain in the forecast but that is not great news.

I'll have to look out for Jeanine Edwards and those great blue eyes now!

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i was thinking that myself, but if he does that, hes done after a half

Pretty much how he won previous 4 races...didn't look very comfortable in the slop/fog last time....similar situation today?

[CSC]

The track has to be fairer than when it was on the inner, War Pass looks like he will get an uncontested lead unless someone decides to play the sacrificial lamb, I can't take on War Pass nor am I going to back him. I'll give him the respect that he will bounce back but there are enough questions in my mind of what exactly did happen to him last time to steer clear of this race.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by CSC

The track has to be fairer than when it was on the inner, War Pass looks like he will get an uncontested lead unless someone decides to play the sacrificial lamb, I can't take on War Pass nor am I going to back him. I'll give him the respect that he will bounce back but there are enough questions in my mind of what exactly did happen to him last time to steer clear of this race.

I would imagine Inner Light is entered in the race for that very reason.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I would imagine Inner Light is entered in the race for that very reason.

Exactly J.

With CC Lopez aboard....who rides for Mott like...never.

He will be told to do what he does best and hope to run WP into the ground.

[ateamstupid]

Weather is gorgeous right now, and it didn't rain all that much yesterday. Should be a fast track.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm not sure Inner Light's presesence will matter much. Breaking from the way outside, with the quick run to the turn, with a rider who misses the break on speeds from time to time. And, I'm not sure he's quick enough anyway.

When CC sends, he'll be quick enough for 3/4's. He may not make the lead, but he'll ensure War Pass has to go fast.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

When CC sends, he'll be quick enough for 3/4's. He may not make the lead, but he'll ensure War Pass has to go fast.

Inner Light makes the lead in here. No doubt about it. When does CC Lopez ever miss breaks? I must not be watching enough races because I never see him miss breaks.

[Travis Stone]

The intentions of Inner Light have been mentioned, and I suppose I do not disagree. But let's be honest in that he was 2 1/2 lengths off the 22 2/5 quarter at Gulfstream and dropped another two lengths farther back to the 44-flat half. Three starts in a row he's been taken off the pace.

So today, they're asking that he not only out-breaks Was Pass, but then steps on it and a reach a speed he hasn't truly seen early in a race since December. If War Pass is good and ready, he'll throw down a sub-23 quarter and Inner Light may never even see the lead. If Cornelio is smart, he'll do exactly what Gomez did not do with Indian Blessing, and just run out and do their thing.

This is the type of prep we like, provided the track is fair. We'll know where many of these horses stand in relation to the others after today. If Inner Light does manage to hook War Pass, and they both cook themselves, any horse not capable of closing with that scenario is an auto-toss in the Derby. Or, we'll learn whether or not War Pass is back to his old self.

[King Glorious]

J Be K
War Pass over Court Vision

[ArlJim78]

regardless of tactics, I don't anticiapate War Pass in the winners circle today.
I like Texas Wildcatter to run a big one.