Any respect for Pyro now?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

exposed, how ?

look at cool coal mans pp's. what has he ever done wrong ?
all he does is run hard, and work bullets.

Cool Coal Man was too close to the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club, so that race is forgivable (though it's not like that race was full of talent). He then beat Golden Spikes in an allowance and was the beneficiary of a pretty good trip in the FOY, which is not exactly coming back as a very strong race. He is an average horse in a below average crop in my opinion.

NT

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

3rd back, for a legend trainer... i thought his effort sat. was sneaky good. I think in the derby they will go even faster, yes the opening quarter was hot in the wood, but 1.11.2, what is that ? he should get 1.09.3 in the derby, and once again it is that key third start back.

Sneaky good? What the hell is sneaky good about being a closer that couldn't win a race that was finished in almost 41 seconds? For Christ's sake, they ran the last five furlongs in 1:06.28!

The three-quarter fraction on Saturday is irrelevant, because the first two fractions were ridiculously quick. Court Vision had everything his own way and ran like a rat.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

They've all been exposed. No one is an auto-toss. Except maybe Anak Nakal.

Then you have good reason to make your favorite bet, a 2$ win on all.

NT

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Cool Coal Man was too close to the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club, so that race is forgivable (though it's not like that race was full of talent). He then beat Golden Spikes in an allowance and was the beneficiary of a pretty good trip in the FOY, which is not exactly coming back as a very strong race. He is an average horse in a below average crop in my opinion.

NT

i would say golden spikes is a decent horse, compared to the others in this crop, and he came back and ran 2nd in a 500k grade 2, court vision came back to run a decent " in my opinion" third in the wood. i just think cool coal man is kinda the horse that everyone is forgetting about, and i think he runs giant this weekend.

[Travis Stone]

If/when Recapturetheglory, War Pass and Big Brown go 22 seconds to the quarter, anyone from the back has a shot.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

2$

You're one of those people...

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Sneaky good? What the hell is sneaky good about being a closer that couldn't win a race that was finished in almost 41 seconds? For Christ's sake, they ran the last five furlongs in 1:06.28!

The three-quarter fraction on Saturday is irrelevant, because the first two fractions were ridiculously quick. Court Vision had everything his own way and ran like a rat.

a rat who finished 3rd? durkin said was sputering and then seemed to surge a little close to the wire. why is the three-quarter fraction irrelevant ? because you say so ? 22.2-46-1.11. and whatever... why does that not matter ? teach me if i am wrong. i thought the first quarter was very fast, second slower, and third slower, so why does he have to close into that.... he will get much much faster ALL AROUND IN THE DERBY. wont he ?

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

If/when Recapturetheglory, War Pass and Big Brown go 22 seconds to the quarter, anyone from the back has a shot.

there is other speed 2, i mean big brown might go 22 on his own, there will be others out there pushing.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i think pyro has a legit chance to clunk up for 5th, i just dont like this horse, and feel good about him not running 1-2-3 in the derby. i rate a number of horses higher.....

war pass
colonel john
dennis of cork
tale of ekati
cool coal man
z humor
even court vision i think can still improve in the key 3rd start off of a layoff, i think court vision will 100% outfinish pyro in the derby

you're kidding, right? pyro hasn't taken a step wrong since the bcj--and i won't bore you to tears with what the runners' up in the bcj have accomplished over the years.
i'd put pyro over any horse on your list. i'm not sure exactly why you think the above are 'better'-only cool coal man imo could prove differently this wknd. war pass has shown limitations-i don't think he can be successful at 10f based on what he did at 9, colonel has surface questions to answer, speculation notwithstanding, tale of ekati, z humor and court vision don't belong in the same discussion at this point.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Assuming Pyro entered the Derby with the same look/feel as he does now, I think the odds shake-out like this for the top four:

Big Brown: 3-1
Pyro: 4-1
Colonel John: 6-1
War Pass: 7-1

Regardless of your opinion of Big Brown, we have to admit there is a massive amount of buzz about him, and that'll drive his price down.

i'd wait til post-bluegrass before settling on pyros odds. based on right now, yeah i think you're right. he wins saturday, he's the favorite on derby day imo.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'd wait til post-bluegrass before settling on pyros odds. based on right now, yeah i think you're right. he wins saturday, he's the favorite on derby day imo.

I agree, but when has Keeneland produced the big effort? Their races are always tight on the wire. We might end-up learning very little about his development on Saturday if the Blue Grass mirrors last years.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

a rat who finished 3rd? durkin said was sputering and then seemed to surge a little close to the wire. why is the three-quarter fraction irrelevant ? because you say so ? 22.2-46-1.11. and whatever... why does that not matter ? teach me if i am wrong. i thought the first quarter was very fast, second slower, and third slower, so why does he have to close into that.... he will get much much faster ALL AROUND IN THE DERBY. wont he ?

The three-quarter fraction is irrelevant because after running :22.46 and :46.07, War Pass was already a sitting duck. He could've run 1:12 and change for three quarters and it would've made minimal difference.

The first quarter fraction for speed horses, especially in route races, is most often the telltale split for what he or she will be able to do late. After War Pass ran :22.46 around a turn neck and neck with a rabbit, Court Vision had all the help he needed.

A faster third quarter in the Derby isn't going to make the difference between an embarrassing performance like that and a win.

You honestly think Pyro wouldn't have won the Wood on Saturday?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I agree, but when has Keeneland produced the big effort? Their races are always tight on the wire. We might end-up learning very little about his development on Saturday if the Blue Grass mirrors last years.

i just think a win in the bluegrass will drive his odds down. a lot of people have short term memory loss, leaping from horse to horse from week to week as preps are run. pyro will be fresh in everyones minds.
i just wonder how much money recapturetheglory will take come derby day. yikes.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

The three-quarter fraction is irrelevant because after running :22.46 and :46.07, War Pass was already a sitting duck. He could've run 1:12 and change for three quarters and it would've made minimal difference.

The first quarter fraction for speed horses, especially in route races, is most often the telltale split for what he or she will be able to do late. After War Pass ran :22.46 around a turn neck and neck with a rabbit, Court Vision had all the help he needed.

A faster third quarter in the Derby isn't going to make the difference between an embarrassing performance like that and a win.

You honestly think Pyro wouldn't have won the Wood on Saturday?

i know you're asking jcs, but i can't think of a race this year that pyro couldn't have won.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Do you really think Recapturetheglory could keep up with Big Brown or War Pass for a 1/4 of a mile, no matter how hard he's sent?

You're actually getting at a good point. Recapturetheglory was simply the quickest horse in a race that was completely devoid of early speed. He was allowed to dawdle in the early stages and had plenty left when the running started. However, it seems clear that if Recapturetheglory runs what seems to be his typical 1/4 and 1/2 mile then he will most likely find himself well off the pace. If he had a craftier jockey than ET Baird one might actually think he could get a good stalking spot in a race that is certainly going to have a fast pace. However, the likelihood of him stalking and pouncing effectively is extraordinarily low.

NT

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Do you really think Recapturetheglory could keep up with Big Brown or War Pass for a 1/4 of a mile, no matter how hard he's sent?

Whether or not he can doesn't matter, it's that he'll try.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Whether or not he can doesn't matter, it's that he'll try.

Agreed- That's all Baird knows how to do.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

He's always been a rat. His Remsen was extremely overrated and he has shown zero this year that could make a reasonable person think he can run a race that has him on the board in the Derby. How much faster do you think they are going to go? Where is all of this speed coming from? He had everything in his favor on Saturday and he had nothing when it mattered. What are you seeing that I am not? What is his excuse for not running 1-2 with everything in his favor on Saturday?

you guys are making it like he ran up the track or something, and the derby will be more like 22 45.2 1.09.3
rather the 22.2 46.1 1.11

in my mind that is a big difference

[hockey2315]

Court Vision is TERRIBLE. He has NO shot to win the derby.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Court Vision is TERRIBLE. He has NO shot to win the derby.

we shall see
what kind of odds do you think im going to get ?