Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Triple Crown Topics/Archive..
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #61  
Old 04-11-2008, 07:07 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
Dee Tee Stables
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Natural State
Posts: 29,939
Default

how do the horses who finish 15-20 enhance the race?
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all.
Abraham Lincoln
Reply With Quote
  #62  
Old 04-11-2008, 07:13 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 5,403
Default

It's not about after the race, but before.
Reply With Quote
  #63  
Old 04-11-2008, 09:30 PM
Cajungator26's Avatar
Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hossy's Mom's basement.
Posts: 10,217
Default

Though I would like to see Big Truck get another win, I have a hunch that Kentucky Bear is going to run big here. I'll probably bet a trillion dollars on him to win if his odds stay generous.
Reply With Quote
  #64  
Old 04-12-2008, 03:14 AM
jcs11204 jcs11204 is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: niskayuna
Posts: 1,861
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Though I would like to see Big Truck get another win, I have a hunch that Kentucky Bear is going to run big here. I'll probably bet a trillion dollars on him to win if his odds stay generous.
why do ppl like kentucky bear ? how many horse run big breaking there maiden then never ever run back to that . and now ppl like this horse to beat this group, i think he has a better chance to run last.
Reply With Quote
  #65  
Old 04-12-2008, 09:46 AM
JJP JJP is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,220
Default

Re: Kentucky Bear, because when one sees a 50-1 shot with a legit shot at crashing the tri.......although realistically I doubt he will be over 20-1. The horse was 4-1 in the FOY.

As for who should like the surface and who shouldn't, while I'm not a fan of synthetics, I've been tracking what stallions' offspring handle it best. Here's who should move up and who should regress:

SHOULD MOVE UP
Visionaire- Grand Slam is one of the top synthetic sires I've seen. GS first time poly has been a strong angle. GS's usually handle dirt or turf.
Cowboy Cal--Giants Causeway another solid synthetic sire. He's only run on dirt once and that was sprinting against a strong field of Sar Mdns
Kentucky Bear--love the Mr. Greeley offspring on synthetic. As a runner, I only remember him running on dirt but his offspring like the fake stuff.

LOOKING TO REGRESS
Big Truck---I really haven't seen many Hook and Ladder runners but he was strictly a dirt sprinter. His turf Tomlinson is solid but he'll have to show me first.
Pyro---he may be good enough to win even if he doesn't really love the stuff. Like AP Indy, most Pulpits would rather run on real dirt or grass.
Cool Coal Man--haven't seen many Mineshafts yet but being by AP Indy, they tend to be overbet on Poly.
Reply With Quote
  #66  
Old 04-12-2008, 11:43 AM
jcs11204 jcs11204 is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: niskayuna
Posts: 1,861
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JJP
Re: Kentucky Bear, because when one sees a 50-1 shot with a legit shot at crashing the tri.......although realistically I doubt he will be over 20-1. The horse was 4-1 in the FOY.

As for who should like the surface and who shouldn't, while I'm not a fan of synthetics, I've been tracking what stallions' offspring handle it best. Here's who should move up and who should regress:

SHOULD MOVE UP
Visionaire- Grand Slam is one of the top synthetic sires I've seen. GS first time poly has been a strong angle. GS's usually handle dirt or turf.
Cowboy Cal--Giants Causeway another solid synthetic sire. He's only run on dirt once and that was sprinting against a strong field of Sar Mdns
Kentucky Bear--love the Mr. Greeley offspring on synthetic. As a runner, I only remember him running on dirt but his offspring like the fake stuff.

LOOKING TO REGRESS
Big Truck---I really haven't seen many Hook and Ladder runners but he was strictly a dirt sprinter. His turf Tomlinson is solid but he'll have to show me first.
Pyro---he may be good enough to win even if he doesn't really love the stuff. Like AP Indy, most Pulpits would rather run on real dirt or grass.
Cool Coal Man--haven't seen many Mineshafts yet but being by AP Indy, they tend to be overbet on Poly.

he will 100% be over 20-1.
there are to many other horses to be bet hard in here.
Reply With Quote
  #67  
Old 04-12-2008, 12:30 PM
Thunder Gulch's Avatar
Thunder Gulch Thunder Gulch is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Southland Greyhound Park
Posts: 1,846
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach Pants
Yes.

I like Monba too.
I'm thinking the same way Big Truck and Monba worked well here and they are two that need this one. Trying to figure some combinations with them around the two chalks.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
Reply With Quote
  #68  
Old 04-12-2008, 12:30 PM
jcs11204 jcs11204 is offline
Churchill Downs
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: niskayuna
Posts: 1,861
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
I'm thinking the same way Big Truck and Monba worked well here and they are two that need this one. Trying to figure some combinations with them around the two chalks.
how does big truck need this ?
Reply With Quote
  #69  
Old 04-12-2008, 12:45 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
Dee Tee Stables
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Natural State
Posts: 29,939
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by jcs11204
how does big truck need this ?

for the money.
Reply With Quote
  #70  
Old 04-12-2008, 01:29 PM
Cajungator26's Avatar
Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hossy's Mom's basement.
Posts: 10,217
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
for the money.
I figured he was in off his Tampa Bay Derby win. ???
Reply With Quote
  #71  
Old 04-12-2008, 01:39 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
Dee Tee Stables
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Natural State
Posts: 29,939
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
I figured he was in off his Tampa Bay Derby win. ???
tagg says it's close, that there are other preps, and other horses who could move in ahead of big truck.
Reply With Quote
  #72  
Old 04-12-2008, 01:50 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
Default

I don't really understand how people can be backing Pyro at anything close to even money in a full field when he has no form on synthetics, Pulpits have not done well on synthetics, Lapenta has already said that Stevil is there to get in Pyro's way as much as possible, and he doesn't need the earnings like some others so won't be fully cranked. You already have four horses with decent synthetic/turf form in Monba, Cowboy Cal, Halo Najib, and Medjool that at 15/1+ on the morning line all make for far better plays. Plus if Kentucky Bear goes off anywhere near 50/1 he's a great play. Honestly, I think considering the circumstances that Pyro is only about 50/50 to even hit the board.
Reply With Quote
  #73  
Old 04-12-2008, 01:54 PM
JJP JJP is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,220
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
I don't really understand how people can be backing Pyro at anything close to even money in a full field when he has no form on synthetics, Pulpits have not done well on synthetics, Lapenta has already said that Stevil is there to get in Pyro's way as much as possible, and he doesn't need the earnings like some others so won't be fully cranked. You already have four horses with decent synthetic/turf form in Monba, Cowboy Cal, Halo Najib, and Medjool that at 15/1+ on the morning line all make for far better plays. Plus if Kentucky Bear goes off anywhere near 50/1 he's a great play. Honestly, I think considering the circumstances that Pyro is only about 50/50 to even hit the board.
You are 100% correct about the Pulpits on synthetic. He's by AP Indy and I don't like AP Indys on the fake stuff. I'm hoping Pyro doesn't handle it; will definitely help his price for 3 weeks down the road.
Reply With Quote
  #74  
Old 04-12-2008, 02:10 PM
pgardn
 
Posts: n/a
Default

I have to think Pyro has a very
good chance of winning mainly because he
is the best horse. No I would not bet it at
the prices given. And maybe it is a fairly
meaningless race for him other than
a workout. But maybe the horse does
not know this.

So they roll down the stretch, and Shaun B.
feels Pyro telling him lets go. The horse knows what
he is supposed to do. So S.B does not
ask him?
Reply With Quote
  #75  
Old 04-12-2008, 02:10 PM
Danzig Danzig is offline
Dee Tee Stables
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: The Natural State
Posts: 29,939
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JJP
You are 100% correct about the Pulpits on synthetic. He's by AP Indy and I don't like AP Indys on the fake stuff. I'm hoping Pyro doesn't handle it; will definitely help his price for 3 weeks down the road.
ap indy is #6 on the top synthetic sires list, so he's not a throw out. pulpit on the other hand....

by the same token, pulpit is #6 for turfers, ap indy nowhere to be found. but many think that turf = poly and vice versa, so who knows?

i don't think pyro is an automatic toss, but i wouldn't bet him either-not at the odds he'll be.
Reply With Quote
  #76  
Old 04-12-2008, 02:22 PM
nfliehman nfliehman is offline
Sam Houston
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Middletown, Ohio
Posts: 18
Default

I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?
Reply With Quote
  #77  
Old 04-12-2008, 02:24 PM
SniperSB23 SniperSB23 is offline
Hialeah Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Albany, NY
Posts: 6,086
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nfliehman
I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?
Everyone but Stone Bird stands a shot to hit the board here.
Reply With Quote
  #78  
Old 04-12-2008, 02:26 PM
Cajungator26's Avatar
Cajungator26 Cajungator26 is offline
Keeneland
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Hossy's Mom's basement.
Posts: 10,217
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
Everyone but Stone Bird stands a shot to hit the board here.
Stone Bird = Belmont winner.

All kidding aside, probably not ... but it would be ironic.
Reply With Quote
  #79  
Old 04-12-2008, 02:34 PM
pgardn
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Because its on the rubber,
I think Sniper is right.

But I think people might be wishing a bit
too much also. Bettors and Owners.
The main reason we got 13 horses going
against Pyro is the rubber (and that there
is a possible intention to use this as a training
session before the real event). If this were a dirt
event and Pyro needed the money to get in,
the field would be much shorter of course.
A few would be thrown in because its the last
chance for some of these to get enough earnings.

There would be no other horses I like enough
to go against the best horse in this race. I wish I
had strong feelings about one other as a winner but
I personally do not. Its neat to read the views of others.
Reply With Quote
  #80  
Old 04-12-2008, 02:35 PM
JJP JJP is offline
Gulfstream Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 1,220
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Danzig
ap indy is #6 on the top synthetic sires list, so he's not a throw out. pulpit on the other hand....

by the same token, pulpit is #6 for turfers, ap indy nowhere to be found. but many think that turf = poly and vice versa, so who knows?

i don't think pyro is an automatic toss, but i wouldn't bet him either-not at the odds he'll be.
THat's on money won, correct? And how much of that was from AP Excellent? Since I started tracking, of 34 AP Indy runners making their first start on synthetic, only 3 won and that returned about $28. That's well below $1.00 returned for every $2 wagered.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:12 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.