War Pass out with fracture

[hockey2315]

You seem to be confusing early speed and speed figures

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by Scav

And the hard on continues

Well at least I am not down on my knees in front of Zito with my mouth wide open like some people on this board. And at my age, I will take a hard on anytime.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

For the critics of Recapturetheglory who say he is not fast. He has the second fastest dirt beyer and second fastest rag out of all 3yr old dirt efforts.

Big Brown's Best Beyer 106
Recapturetheglory 102.

Big Brown's best Rag 2
Recapturetheglory best rag 4.

thanks for bringing these facts to light, its looks like you've really done your research.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by whodey17

Well at least I am not down on my knees in front of Zito with my mouth wide open like some people on this board. And at my age, I will take a hard on anytime.

The sad thing is that while you would never be in this situation, you would have tried the same exact thing with War Pass, and it really wasn't because they stretched him out. Horses stretch out all the time.

For you to think Zito ruined this horse, just shows you have a very bias opinion.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What a day for the naysayers?

At what point would you have made a decision differently from what Zito did? It's clear your distaste for Zito blinds you to reality, but where did he make a mistake? The horse's 2YO campaign was perfectly laid out. He brought him back in an easy spot. He ran poorly at Tampa but came out of it OK, then he did what any logical trainer would have, he ran him in the Wood Memorial.

It's perfectly OK to have preferences for some trainer over others and while I'm pissing in the wind even replying to you, why don't you take the blinkers off for a second and realize that injuries happen to horses, even to ones that are being handled with care.

NT

To be fair to Zito, he has done some good training jobs. War Pass was not completely 100% healthy for the Tampa Bay Derby. Then he puts the horse in a spot (The Wood) knowing that it was highly unlikely he would get the distance. Then the horse goes out there and runs blazing fractions in the Wood. I think it is up to the trainer to know what type of horse he/she has (this mistake happens all the time). Zito should have known War Pass was a horse that was better at distances between 7 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Some believe the plan was good for War Pass. But the plan didn't work. Some people on this board believe that when a plan doesn't work then the horse was mismanaged. For me, I think the plan for War Pass should have been a plan that included the Preakness instead of the Derby if you wanted to run in a Triple Crown race. However, he should have been pointed to the Met Mile.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

the track was a conveyor belt. the race was over at the first turn. There is more to horse racing than speed figures.

don't tell them that.! you are giving away secrets, like actually handicapping! like i said on the other thread: if the beyers and speed figs are so accurate how come everyone isn't getting rich and quitting their jobs? why do 2-5 shots lose ? if you are basing all your bets on figs you don't know much about the actual racing part ! i don't care if big brown ran a 140, i don't think he will get 1 mile 1/4 off 3 races with sore feet .

[TheSpyder]

You seem to have good insight. I'm just wondering if you posted this view prior to WP getting injured.

Spyder

Originally Posted by whodey17

To be fair to Zito, he has done some good training jobs. War Pass was not completely 100% healthy for the Tampa Bay Derby. Then he puts the horse in a spot (The Wood) knowing that it was highly unlikely he would get the distance. Then the horse goes out there and runs blazing fractions in the Wood. I think it is up to the trainer to know what type of horse he/she has (this mistake happens all the time). Zito should have known War Pass was a horse that was better at distances between 7 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Some believe the plan was good for War Pass. But the plan didn't work. Some people on this board believe that when a plan doesn't work then the horse was mismanaged. For me, I think the plan for War Pass should have been a plan that included the Preakness instead of the Derby if you wanted to run in a Triple Crown race. However, he should have been pointed to the Met Mile.

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You seem to be confusing early speed and speed figures

No. I am saying a horse with early speed that puts up big speed figures is not just early speed. This horse is very dangerous if left alone on the lead. He isn't going to fold without some pressure. This Cherokee Run becomes much more dangerous without the other Cherokee Run in there. Now Bob Black Jack is the only horse i can see going with him and he seemed to try to rate his last race.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

You seem to have good insight. I'm just wondering if you posted this view prior to WP getting injured.

Spyder

I believe I stated several times that War Pass had distance limitations. I put him in my Derby top 5 because someone would have to pass him and all these horses are pretty bad (see War Emblem). So why not take a shot with a horse that was going to be 15-1 or more who at least will be on or very very near the lead. I didn't post a plan for him because no one asked me.

Originally Posted by whodey17

To be fair to Zito, he has done some good training jobs. War Pass was not completely 100% healthy for the Tampa Bay Derby. Then he puts the horse in a spot (The Wood) knowing that it was highly unlikely he would get the distance. Then the horse goes out there and runs blazing fractions in the Wood. I think it is up to the trainer to know what type of horse he/she has (this mistake happens all the time). Zito should have known War Pass was a horse that was better at distances between 7 furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. Some believe the plan was good for War Pass. But the plan didn't work. Some people on this board believe that when a plan doesn't work then the horse was mismanaged. For me, I think the plan for War Pass should have been a plan that included the Preakness instead of the Derby if you wanted to run in a Triple Crown race. However, he should have been pointed to the Met Mile.

Usually owners call the shots with Derby horses, not trainers. They were smart to do what they did. He always had a small shot if the track came up sloppy. If they didn't try and it rained that day they would never forgive themselves.

Zito already has an older horse that is targeting the Met Mile and there is no reason to run 3yr olds against older horses that early in the year.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

The term IMBECILE comes to mind here......and I'm not talking about Mr Zito.

LOL.

Eric

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

There are a few subjects that - for whatever reason - inspire incredibly heated debate here. Off the top of my head this list includes:

1) Lost in the Fog
2) Polytrack
3) Perfect Drift
4) Nick Zito
5) Bernardini

There are probably more that I am forgetting, but basically these subjects generate big arguments because there are certain individuals here that have very strong opinions either for or against these topics. Once they stake out their extreme positions, other people argue strenuously with them. In the case of Zito, it is basically just whodey taking every conceivable opportunity to take a shot at Zito. Add in the fact that Zito has some staunch supporters (and in some cases, friends) on this board, and you have yourself a recipe for acrimony.

Funny Cide, Sheik Mo and favorite racecaller probably deserve a spot on your list. they consistently draw a crowd.

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

Usually owners call the shots with Derby horses, not trainers. They were smart to do what they did. He always had a small shot if the track came up sloppy. If they didn't try and it rained that day they would never forgive themselves.

Zito already has an older horse that is targeting the Met Mile and there is no reason to run 3yr olds against older horses that early in the year.

I would normally agree with your statement that owners call the shots. But LaPenta values Zito's opinion greatly and I am sure Zito could have talked him out of running War Pass in the Derby. I would say the blame should be shared between the two of them. And if Zito has a horse already being pointed to the Met Mile, then run War Pass in the Preakness. Heck, they have Cool Coal Man for the Derby. If Cool Coal Man wins the Derby then they have two for the Preakness. If CCM doesnt win the Derby, then you have War Pass for the Preakness and CCM for the Belmont with a 5 week layoff.

all-all-4-all.

3 out of 4.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

For the critics of Recapturetheglory who say he is not fast. He has the second fastest dirt beyer and second fastest rag out of all 3yr old dirt efforts.

Big Brown's Best Beyer 106
Recapturetheglory 102.

Big Brown's best Rag 2
Recapturetheglory best rag 4.

Listen, the bottom line is that the colt has no chance to win the race and only about a 0.0000001% chance of hitting the board. In a race with very few tosses, he is absolutely one of them.
The colt is 2 for 2 lifetime on the Hawthorne strip and 0 for 4 everywhere else. You can cite all of the BSFs you want too, but with the kind of trip he got in the Illinois Derby, it sure means a lot less than it otherwise would. I hope you know that there is absolutely no way he'll run a 102 going 10f at CD. He'll be lucky to top 90.
At this point I don't think I'll be betting on Big Brown either, but comparing him to Recapturetheglory is a little nutty in my opinion.

[hi_im_god]

illinois derby gets an inflated beyer every year and then the winner takes up space in the churchill gate and somehow turns into a goat when it opens.

this horse isn't war emblem, he's cowtown cat.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

illinois derby gets an inflated beyer every year and then the winner takes up space in the churchill gate and somehow turns into a goat when it opens.

this horse isn't war emblem, he's cowtown cat.

Exactly.
DrugS posted this awhile ago, but I guess it needs to be reposted for some people here.


"The Ill Derby has a history of front end winners producing crazy fast figures.

* Last year, Cowtown Cat went wire-to-wire and was given just a 98 Beyer figure after running a time that suggested he ran significantly faster. BRIS didn't adjust there figure...and had him running faster than Holy Bull ever had on there numbers - he went on to finish 20th in the Derby while having the highest last out BRIS fig in the entire field.

* Two years ago, Sweetnorthersaint sat second less than a length off of pace setter Mr. Triester (who stayed on to finish 2nd) - he put him away, won by 9, got huge figures from all figure makers and was bet to Derby favortisim.

* Three years ago, Greeley's Galazy stalked the pace from up close and won with a 106 Beyer that might have been reduced a little if I recall. He never ran back to it.

* Four years ago, Pollards Vision went wire-to-wire and ran a 107 Beyer. He returned to run 17th beaten 40 lengths in the Derby."

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Do you watch many races at Hawthorne?

The pace propelled him to victory, not some rail or speed bias on Illinois Derby day. There wasn't one.

[King Glorious]

I'm not sure why it's so easy for people to remember this about the Illinois Derby.

Anyway, I have read a few people saying that if anyone was Zito's position, they would have done exactly the same with War Pass that Zito did. I don't agree. I was of the belief that something was way wrong with War Pass after the Tampa race. I wouldn't have pressed on to the Wood after that. And even if for some reason I had, after the Wood, I was strong in my opinion that the Derby chase should have ended right there. Yet Zito was continuing on saying it was a day by day thing and that the Derby was still a consideration. I'm not saying Zito is wrong or that I'm right here because he knows the horse better than I do. But from all I was able to see, I think I would have taken a different approach.

Is it redboarding or 20/20 hindsight when you predict a horse will be done and he's done one race later than you predicted?

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm not sure why it's so easy for people to remember this about the Illinois Derby.

I was of the belief that something was way wrong with War Pass after the Tampa race. I wouldn't have pressed on to the Wood after that.

So you know more than Zito about his own horses?

There was nothing wrong with him in the TB Derby. He just didn't handle the track and he couldn't get the lead.

The horse got hurt in the last 1/16th in the Wood. He ran a fine race in the Wood, it was just too far for him.