Derby Grid/Graded Earnings

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i'm not sure i understand. can you clarify this?

[northeastbound123]

LMAO

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Well played, sir.

[geeker2]

now that was funny!

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Kasept

i wish you'd stop with all the technical jargon and just say what you mean.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by Gander

I think the last race showed he isnt just a sprinter. And switching to dirt imo would be more beneficial to his running style. He is a better horse when he makes the lead, not when he sits just right off it. I'd like to see this horse get sent to the lead in the Derby. At 15/1 or higher, there are definetely worst stabs in this race, especially now that his chief rival War Pass is out. I also like the fact Solis was so eager to committ to this horse 3 weeks prior to the Derby, instead of playing the waiting game and shopping around, if you will. Lots to like.

Oh God, Gander saying my pick MAY have a shot? Honestly, after his last race I told my husband "I believe that is my Derby horse." It was the first thing that came to my mind. He ran WIDE into the final turn and was still game at the end of the race. I really like this horse.

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by Kasept

So if I understand you correctly, IF the horse runs, he'll be wearing Reeboks. Is this an accepted shoe? If the track is muddy, can he wear Reeboks with mud caulks?

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

So if I understand you correctly, IF the horse runs, he'll be wearing Reeboks. Is this an accepted shoe? If the track is muddy, can he wear Reeboks with mud caulks?

Shouldn't the horse also have a water bottle?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Kasept

AW..

Not coming according to Haskin from Zayat's stable manager guy. (Zabu or whatever they call him). Derby Trial and Woody Stephens intended. That's as of yesterday... (And seems especially probable given that Halo could very likely get in with an injury/defection or two..)

Uh oh, that is bad news. If Massive Drama were to win the Derby Trial and it were Denis of Cork he'd be bumping rather than Halo Najib can you really imagine Zayat not pushing to run him in the Derby?

[slotdirt]

Didn't the Derby Trial lose its graded status?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Didn't the Derby Trial lose its graded status?

Yeah but doesn't make any difference with a horse that already has the earnings.

[philcski]

My current guess on odds using 15% takeout, taking the top 20 earners:
horse takeout odds
pyro 7.5
proud spell 32
tale of ekati 21
colonel john 6
gayego 21
big brown 4
z humor 100
monba 13
court vision 36
z fortune 23
adriano 21
recapturetheglory 25
smooth air 32
cool coal man 16
anak nakal 125
eight belles 25
cowboy cal 30
behind at the bar 32
visionaire 43
big truck 51

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cardus

How did you arrive at these numbers?

I took last year's handle, used standard takeout, and guessed based on how people have been ranking the entrants.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

My current guess on odds using 15% takeout, taking the top 20 earners:
horse takeout odds
pyro 7.5
proud spell 32
tale of ekati 21
colonel john 6
gayego 21
big brown 4
z humor 100
monba 13
court vision 36
z fortune 23
adriano 21
recapturetheglory 25
smooth air 32
cool coal man 16
anak nakal 125
eight belles 25
cowboy cal 30
behind at the bar 32
visionaire 43
big truck 51

Like what you are doing here, but it seems weighted towards the 20-30 range, where they are probably 3-4 horses that will be in the 50 to 80/1 range

[Gander]

Originally Posted by philcski

I took last year's handle, used standard takeout, and guessed based on how people have been ranking the entrants.

They look pretty spot on to me. Thanks for posting those.

I do think Visionaire and Court Vision will be considerably lower than the ones you predict at maybe 25/1 and 18/1 respectively.

[hockey2315]

16-1 on Cool Coal Man looks low. . . At least it'll mean that my future bet on him at 20-1 actually offered value. . .

[IrishofNDMan]

I agree with Scavs and expect a couple of them to be higher in the 45 or 50-1 range. I was thinking Monba will be higher than 13-1, and recapturetheglory is one of the horses that will be 40-1.

[hockey2315]

It would be hard to imagine Recapturetheglory being 40-1 coming off a win with a relatively high fig. . .

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It would be hard to imagine Recapturetheglory being 40-1 coming off a win with a relatively high fig. . .

who do you think will be lower than my guesses? remember this was done with the true math included, so for every horse that's higher odds there's got to be one lower.

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by philcski

who do you think will be lower than my guesses? remember this was done with the true math included, so for every horse that's higher odds there's got to be one lower.

I predicted recapturetheglory at 40-1 rather than 25-1, and Monba at 20-1 rather than 13-1.

I would say that Gayego will be about 14-1 instead of 21-1 (I'm not touching either way) and I think Smooth Air will be in the 20's instead of 32-1.

Don't get me wrong I think it's a great list you made, I wanted to just add some of my opinions.