Wow, how much is Dutrow wagering the first Saturday in May?

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I believe that the writer of the story may have taken some literary license in suggesting that BB winning the Derby automatically will have him commanding 100k at stud. Or that Kip DeVille or Benny the Bull will be big time stallions.

Isn't Big Brown significantly "inbred" for a top notch stallion? I might agree that $30 Mil for BB if he wins the Derby might be realistic, but I think $100k at stud is a little much...

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Gander

The thing that concerns me about Z Fortune is why couldnt he get by a tiring Gayego in the Ark Derby? He had every chance too and still couldnt even make the finish close.
He'll have more to deal with than just getting by Gayego.

Here are the splits for the race:

22.71 23.90 24.48 25.86 12.68

The last 1/8th projects to a 25.36 quarter

so, Gayego actually picked it up a bit late (relative to the mile split)

and the only other horse to make a move in the race, Indian Sun, was almost even with Z Fortune at the 6F mark but then backed up significantly in relation to him late ; and, of course, the only other horse that ran EARLY finished 3rd.

so maybe Gayego wasn't tiring as bad as you'd like to think; or, something was holding these horses together late

Not to say that I'm a Z Fortune supporter; just telling it like it is

[Travis Stone]

Z Fortune was also wide on both turns. I think he's potentially sitting on a new top in terms of figures, with the Ark. Derby being a cycle-back. Unless the Ark. Derby was another peak... but I haven't decided on that one yet.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here are the splits for the race:

22.71 23.90 24.48 25.86 12.68

The last 1/8th projects to a 25.36 quarter

so, Gayego actually picked it up a bit late (relative to the mile split)

and the only other horse to make a move in the race, Indian Sun, was almost even with Z Fortune at the 6F mark but then backed up significantly in relation to him late ; and, of course, the only other horse that ran EARLY finished 3rd.

so maybe Gayego wasn't tiring as bad as you'd like to think; or, something was holding these horses together late

Not to say that I'm a Z Fortune supporter; just telling it like it is

Good stuff- I thought Gayego also ran a quality race, and backing out the fractions proves it. He's a decent beast in this group of terribles, I just don't think he's going a mile and a quarter or I'd like him a lot more in 11 days.

Z Fortune may be the Steppenwolfer of this group, just kind of hangs around, not necessarily good enough to win but certainly eligible to outrun his odds.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

And for drawing the far outside post, things weren't exactly really difficult for him. It's not like he was three-wide the whole way. And I don't buy this "he outran everyone" stuff. No one attempted to run with him, so basically, he had it all his own way.

jeez, you guys are ruining it. let the suckers jump on the bandwagon. most of the people that put this horse on top bet once a year or are not following the kentucky derby over the years. or what happens to alot of people that are betting their money, they read the hype and become "fans". the only horse i am a fan of is one that makes me money at a fair price. big brown ain't it !

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by smuthg

Isn't Big Brown significantly "inbred" for a top notch stallion? I might agree that $30 Mil for BB if he wins the Derby might be realistic, but I think $100k at stud is a little much...

if he won't command six figures, he can't sell for 30 million-how would the breeder earn his money back? farms want to 'get out' after just a few years-usually before the 2 yo's start running, since they might not be that fast, and demand will drop like a stone for a sire with slow progeny.