DERBY PACE MUST READ: Moss' Preview/Review

[Kasept]

Do not miss Randy Moss' great Pace Preview/Breakdown, as well as his Historical Review...

They will help you understand the way the Derby is likely to unfold or at least give you something to work from to help you generate a scenario where the horse you like does well...


PREVIEW:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...bypreview.html


HISTORICAL REVIEW:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...byhistory.html

[TheSpyder]

Steve,

Excellent tout, read it inside and out and has to impact your view of the race. As hyper Derby information abounds, this is vital stuff.

Spyder

[Thunder Gulch]

I have a lot of respect for Moss and think he is by far the best handicapper ESPN has employed. I see it a few ticks worth of Derby pressure faster than Moss, but everyone has an opinion. I also see another 3 who could decide to contest the two he talks about for the lead.

[geeker2]

Moss is great...but when it comes down to heading for the windows I find it hard to believe he will place his $2 win bet on Visionaire..... when he does I will be right next to him sending it in on Colonel John and asking him "Have you ever thought of trying Rogaine?"

[the_fat_man]

Why is it that just about everyone assumes that Big Brown needs the lead?

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why is it that just about everyone assumes that Big Brown needs the lead?

Because this is a stampede.
And as the best horse in a race with speed,
there is trouble almost everywhere else.

Which is of course why this race is so difficult to win.
This is not the Florida Derby.

He really does not need the lead. But if he finds himself
in a group... Target practice. All he needs is a good trip.
And I cant think of another race in the US where the
probability of getting a bad trip is so relevant.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why is it that just about everyone assumes that Big Brown needs the lead?

He may not need the lead. . . But he may just not have anyone faster than him early to run at. . .

[the_fat_man]

Then there won't be a problem, will there?

I'm looking at the chart for the Bluegrass, and I'm shocked that someone with pace experience can see something positive about Visionaire's performance. He gained but since when is last moving a tired bunch, and passing horses that are BACKING UP, a good effort?

[hockey2315]

I'm getting more and more afraid that he just cruises all the way around. . . So hopefully he gets the 1 post and gets squeezed so we can actually make some $. . .

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Then there won't be a problem, will there?

I'm looking at the chart for the Bluegrass, and I'm shocked that someone with pace experience can see something positive about Visionaire's performance. He gained but since when is last moving a tired bunch, and passing horses that are BACKING UP, a good effort?

I agree. For Keeneland, that pace was actually reasonable and even a little on the fast side. He should have gained a lot more than he did under those circumstances.

Now, I can see the argument that the race is best ignored because of the surface, but not trying to use the performance is an indicator of some hidden ability.

[fpsoxfan]

I liked Visionaire's race in the Wood. Although it was foggy, and you really couldn't see how the whole race played about, he did have a nice closing kick in the slop to beat Texas Wildcatter. Obviusly his Tomlinson (204) for the distance sticks out as a big negative, I think Matz will have this one ready to finish in the money..

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

I liked Visionaire's race in the Wood. Although it was foggy, and you really couldn't see how the whole race played about, he did have a nice closing kick in the slop to beat Texas Wildcatter. Obviusly his Tomlinson (204) for the distance sticks out as a big negative, I think Matz will have this one ready to finish in the money..

that was the gotham. tale of ekati defeated war pass in the wood.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm looking at the chart for the Bluegrass, and I'm shocked that someone with pace experience can see something positive about Visionaire's performance. He gained but since when is last moving a tired bunch, and passing horses that are BACKING UP, a good effort?

I strongly agree - I watched the replay a bunch of times to try and see what moss was seeing and couldn't find it. . . looked to me like the horse just sucked up past a bunch of tired poly-haters. . . he wasn't moving very fast at all - they were just moving slow.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I strongly agree - I watched the replay a bunch of times to try and see what moss was seeing and couldn't find it. . . looked to me like the horse just sucked up past a bunch of tired poly-haters. . . he wasn't moving very fast at all - they were just moving slow.

He did the same thing in his win at Gulfstream at the beginning of the meet. He dropped back to the rail off a hot pace and then flew home b/c the leaders were so tired from running hot early fractions. I also have concerns about him getting a mile and a quarter. He's a toss for me at this point.

[Kasept]

Be careful tossing horses like this (Visionaire) from the bottom of your exotics tix...

Think Steppenwolfer.. Jazil.. Imawildandcrazyguy.. et al. When many are dead tired and stopping, horses like this can keep going at their one-paced speed and get third or fourth.

May not be Visionaire Saturday, but "passed tired rivals" isn't such a bad quality when searching out Derby exotics fillers...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Be careful tossing horses like this (Visionaire) from the bottom of your exotics tix...

Think Steppenwolfer.. Jazil.. Imawildandcrazyguy.. et al. When many are dead tired and stopping, horses like this can keep going at their one-paced speed and get third or fourth.

May not be Visionaire Saturday, but "passed tired rivals" isn't such a bad quality when searching out Derby exotics fillers...

Right....but that's a sort of " after the fact " kind of thing....as well as obvious.

I think the point being made is that Visionaire may not have been so much as closing in the Blue Grass but not falling apart like many of his rivals in that race. The contention is obviously not that some of the exotic fillers in the Derby will be " passing tired rivals " but that Visionaire only gave the illusion of running OK in the Blue Grass....when in fact he wasn't.

[hockey2315]

At 10F I expect Visionaire to be one of the "tired rivals"

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right....but that's a sort of " after the fact " kind of thing....as well as obvious.

I think the point being made is that Visionaire may not have been so much as closing in the Blue Grass but not falling apart like many of his rivals in that race. The contention is obviously not that some of the exotic fillers in the Derby will be " passing tired rivals " but that Visionaire only gave the illusion of running OK in the Blue Grass....when in fact he wasn't.

I think this is something that needs to be considered in general. In a large field, with the possibility of a contested pace, and middle moves, there's always the possibility that some late runner will pick up the pieces. But you can't handicap this way because the ONLY WAY this type gets up is with a complete collapse of the race. Typically, this type can't run otherwise. So, in the Bluegrass, for example, Visionare would've need the speed, the chasers, the middle movers, AND all the other late runners to COLLAPSE, in order to win the race. (This is not to say that Visionaire is this one dimensional, only that his last effort was of this type.)

Typically, there are other horses who have shown that they don't need ABSOLUTELY PERFECT SETUPS to run credibly. These are the ones I focus on.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash

He did the same thing in his win at Gulfstream at the beginning of the meet. He dropped back to the rail off a hot pace and then flew home b/c the leaders were so tired from running hot early fractions.

This is not true. While the pace was fast, he did some serious running that race. I suggest you reevaluate this race.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I think this is something that needs to be considered in general. In a large field, with the possibility of a contested pace, and middle moves, there's always the possibility that some late runner will pick up the pieces. But you can't handicap this way because the ONLY WAY this type gets up is with a complete collapse of the race. Typically, this type can't run otherwise. So, in the Bluegrass, for example, Visionare would've need the speed, the chasers, the middle movers, AND all the other late runners to COLLAPSE, in order to win the race. (This is not to say that Visionaire is this one dimensional, only that his last effort was of this type.)

Typically, there are other horses who have shown that they don't need ABSOLUTELY PERFECT SETUPS to run credibly. These are the ones I focus on.

Then the Colonel must be in the picture for you. I think this horse has shown that he can win under a variety of placements. More than any other horse in the race. Looks like he is gonna get in trouble and he just eases into another pace or spot without problem. He will be the 2nd choice. Probably not worth the win. But I have a hard time seeing him out of the exotics. PP pending.