Derby Works

[largo1]

So,,,how do you guys judge the last Derby works for this years contenders? I gather that it is good to see a horse work over the Churchill Down surface and seem to like it. I also understand when people say a certain horse has a "bloom", or works like a machine, or really seems to relish the track. But how much stock do you put into the times of each final prep? For instance, Colonial John worked 5 furlongs in 57/change and galloped out 6 in 1:11. By comparison, Adriano worked his 5 furlongs in 59 something and galloped out 6 in 1:14. Both trainers said they were happy with the works. To me, Adriano worked much slower,,, but maybe he didn't need a faster work? Do you guys mostly just look at how fast they got the last quarter? I don't know, I'm trying to learn.

Suzanne

[Scav]

Originally Posted by largo1

So,,,how do you guys judge the last Derby works for this years contenders? I gather that it is good to see a horse work over the Churchill Down surface and seem to like it. I also understand when people say a certain horse has a "bloom", or works like a machine, or really seems to relish the track. But how much stock do you put into the times of each final prep? For instance, Colonial John worked 5 furlongs in 57/change and galloped out 6 in 1:11. By comparison, Adriano worked his 5 furlongs in 59 something and galloped out 6 in 1:14. Both trainers said they were happy with the works. To me, Adriano worked much slower,,, but maybe he didn't need a faster work? Do you guys mostly just look at how fast they got the last quarter? I don't know, I'm trying to learn.

Suzanne

It isn't about the time, it is how they look, and Adriano looked like he wanted no part of the dirt, never leveled off.....

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Scav

It isn't about the time, it is how they look, and Adriano looked like he wanted no part of the dirt, never leveled off.....

Thanks KYRIM

[Scav]

Originally Posted by GPK

Thanks KYRIM

Dude, I watched the work on http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/works

You tell me that horse looks comfortable, he barely beat his workmate, and he was going up in down like a harness horse off stride

[largo1]

Okay, what do you mean by "he never leveled off"?? Was he unbalanced? Didn't get his head down and his shoulder into it? How exactly did he move? (again, I don't know, just trying to learn)

Suzanne

[Scav]

Originally Posted by largo1

Okay, what do you mean by "he never leveled off"?? Was he unbalanced? Didn't get his head down and his shoulder into it? How exactly did he move? (again, I don't know, just trying to learn)

Suzanne

He just never seemed in sync, but I am far from a trained eye in regards to it.

Originally Posted by largo1

Okay, what do you mean by "he never leveled off"?? Was he unbalanced? Didn't get his head down and his shoulder into it? How exactly did he move? (again, I don't know, just trying to learn)

Suzanne

His final eighth indicated he was slowing down before the work was over; he coudn't put away his workmate, and his workmate also showed a stronger gallop-out at the end. In spite of a good overall time, the aforementioned issues have lowered my opinion of his chances. I was going to use him in exotics--now I'm not so sure.

[largo1]

Thanks, thats exactly the kind of insight I'm looking for.

Suzanne

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by largo1

Do you guys mostly just look at how fast they got the last quarter? I don't know, I'm trying to learn.

Suzanne

You probably already know all of this, but just in case......
Works can be especially useful if you can detect a pattern between the way the horse has worked in the past and how he/she has performed in past races. In that respect, times alone CAN be helpful.
A good recent example of people failing to do this seemed to be last week's Lexington Stakes. I have to assume that Tomcito was bet down to the favorite largely because of his very fast work over the Keeneland surface in preparation for the race. People betting on him did not seem to take into account that Tomcito had posted a similar flashy workout over the Gulfstream surface in preparation for the Florida Derby, but then turned in a rather dull effort in that race as well. For Tomcito (and many others) fast works over a surface simply don't translate into fast races. Other horses tend to follow fast works with fast races and slow works with slow races. Like anything, each horse is a little different. Typically workouts only make a lot of sense as a handicapping tool if you know, and take into consideration, that particular horse's works-to-race history.

With synthetic tracks however, I think works have become a little more important in their own right than they were before, because you just have even more horses switching surfaces all of the time. When a colt works like Pyro did in preparation for the Bluegrass, it is a reasonably safe bet that he just didn't like the polytrack surface. So, in the case of the Kentucky Derby, I am very interested to see how colt's with no dirt form (like Colonel John) work over the CD surface, but far less interested in how horses that have more established dirt form look.

[Danzig]

http://www.kentucky.com/302/story/387407.html

see if the above helps clear the air about adriano!!

[sumitas]

paralysis of analysis

[hockey2315]

Adriano hates dirt. . . it's pretty apparent from his workouts. . .

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Adriano hates dirt. . . it's pretty apparent from his workouts. . .

Any thoughts on the Court Vision workout?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by geeker2

Any thoughts on the Court Vision workout?

I'm VERY far from a workout expert. . . But no matter how fast/well Court Vision works I won't be using him at all. . . The fact that he's training well over the churchill surface with blinks added makes me a little more reluctant to toss him - but then I look at his PPs and come to my senses. . .

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm VERY far from a workout expert. . . But no matter how fast/well Court Vision works I won't be using him at all. . . The fact that he's training well over the churchill surface with blinks added makes me a little more reluctant to toss him - but then I look at his PPs and come to my senses. . .

At least has win over track..looking at him for tri/super. Blinks could help put him in the race a bit sooner.