5/2: Churchill Downs (Oaks Day)

[Kasept]

Oaks Day and no end in sight to stalemates that are blocking accessibility of card to horseplayers in many venues. From DRF's Matt Hegarty Thursday:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/94176.html

"If the stalemate is not broken, the only account-wagering operations that will be able to offer wagering on the Derby/Oaks undercard are those that restrict betting to in-state customers. The list of sites includes those run by New York OTBs, the New York Racing Association, the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority, Philadelphia Park and Penn National Race Course in Pennsylvania, and operations based in Virginia and Louisiana."

While many are outraged and frustrated by the situation, the solidarity of the horsemen in the dispute is a major accomplishment and they deserve horseplayer's support. In the meantime, those with opportunity to wager Friday and Saturday should have the chance to make money on cards with full, solid fields.

It's been a pleasure to bring the Derby seaon to ATR listeners and DT.com readers the last 2 weeks. Enjoy Oaks-Derby Weekend...


CHURCHILL DOWNS


5th: 14th Aegon Turf Sprint (Gr. III), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Mr. Nightslinger 2-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Demarcation 8-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Salute the Count 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #1 Atticus Kristy 10-1 3rd

$2 Exacta (6-5) Paid $28.40
$2 Trifecta (6-5-1) Paid $135.20


6th: 23rd Louisville (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Note that #2 Lear's Princess will SCR if the track is muddy..

Most Likely: #7 Ginger Punch 1-1 WON
Best Value: #1 SCR
Next Best: #6 Leah's Secret 6-1 2nd

$2 Exacta (7-6) Paid $17.80


7th: 24th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Zee Zee 7-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Magger Bags 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Grace and Power 3-1 4th
Exotics Add: #8 My Baby Baby 9-2 2nd

$2 Exacta (1-8) Paid $36.40
$2 Trifecta (1-8-3) Paid $385.00
$2 Superfecta (1-8-3-6) Paid $1,392.20


8th: 5th Alysheba (Gr. III), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Magna Graduate 3-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Giant Gizmo 5-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Wanderin Boy 5-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #6 Chelokee 3-1 DNF


9th: 17th Crown Royal American Turf (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Sailor's Cap 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Blackberry Road 8-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Halo Najib 8-1 4th
Exotics Add: #10 Boss Lafitte 6-1 6th


10th: 134th Kentucky Oaks (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 9f (KO-KD Double, DD, Super Hi-5, Super)

1 Golden Doc A (Desormeaux/Abrams) 12-1: Cal-bred looks fabulous physically and has done little wrong getting here; Highly viable exotics option..

2 Absolutely Cindy (Leparoux/Kinmon) 20-1: Nice Arch filly beat the boys at Turfway and should be looking towards lucrative summer grass campaign; Can't fault for taking shot but hard pressed tyo embrace..

3 Awesome Chic (Albarado/Ramos) 20-1: Tampa-Suffolk invader is bred to run forever, and is especially bred to run forever on wet; Cracked 90+ BSF in first 2 turn event, a signal that this trip can produce positive results; Not impossible underneath in tris/supers..

4 Elusive Lady (Coa/Kimmel) 30-1: Grey gal got good early for Kimmel but hasn't been able to advance juvy form much; Just one of a wide middle group behind the top pair..

5 Rasierra (Theriot/Tracy) 50-1: Quietly confident Pacific NW horseman shows up late with supplement of stunningly handsome daughter of Kafwain (via a Moscow Ballet mare); Working up a storm and is as fast as any in the group that will be one-third her price; May not be good enough, but do not leave off any exotic tix..

6 Country Star (Bejarano/Frankel) 4-1: Has obviously had issues with Frankel moving her towards this in fits/starts; Left her off Ashland plays where she was exposed and see no reason to change view of her p[rospects today..

7 Little Belle (Maragh/McLaughlin) 8-1: A.P. Indy miss from KMc has improved but got extremely in Gr. I win last that connections admit they didn't expect; Anticipate a return to reality in this spot, on this surface..

8 Proud Spell (Saez/Jones) 7-2: Toss poly-hating Ashland third and you have best or second best filly in the country; Deserving fave with stablemate running Saturday and looms very tough to stop here..

9 A to the Croft (Borel/McPeek) 20-1: McPeek says forgive prior pair as Menifee miss compromised; Tough to see scenario that gets her a check, though slop would be one thing to her advantage..

10 Bsharpsonata (Camacho/Salzman) 6-1: Pulpit bay is a wonderment, successfully negotiating whatever capable Salzman throws at her; Dirt, turf or synth no issue for bay who is most logical upsetter to ML choice..

11 Pure Clan (Prado/Holthus) 6-1: Chestnut goes third/break for veteran conditioner who was 4th this event in lone prior try; Shouldn't be bothered by wide berth, but may need to get involved earlier as event lacks much front end zip..

12 Eight Belles SCR

Selections:

1. (Most Likely) #8 PROUD SPELL WON
2. (Next Best) #11 Pure Clan 3rd
3. (Best Value) #5 Rasierra 8th
4. (Exotics Add)#10 Bsharpsonata 4th
5. (High 5 Play) #1 Golden Doc A 5th


<$50 Oaks/Derby Double:

$4: 8 with 9-10-12-16-20 = 5 x $4 = $20
$2: 8 with 1-2-6-11-14 = 5 x $2 = $10
$1: 1-5-10-11 with 9-10-12-16-20 = 4 x 5 = $20

Total: $50


$4: 8 with

9. Pyro, 111.60
10. Colonel John, 109.60
12. Smooth Air, 739.20
16. Denis of Cork, 448.40
20. Big Brown, 75.60


$2: 8 with

1. Cool Coal Man, $436.00
2. Tale of Ekati, 312.20
6. Z Fortune, 143.60
11. Z Humor, 644.80
14. Monba, 281.60


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-6-8
8: 2-3-5
9: 6-7-9
10: 5-8

4x3x2x2 = $72


11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Great Thought 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 SCR
Next Best: #7 Light Showers 5-1 9th
Exotics Add: #6 Allseas 15-1 4th


Good luck!
Steve

[SCUDSBROTHER]

How the hell we gunna "enjoy it" if we can't bet it? Every time they open a meet somewhere they got this stupidity.Who do they expect to pay these purses? There's already too much take-out,and the horsemen want 7%? It's outrageous.The total take-out should be about 10% including horsemen,state,and track(all together,) and the horsemen alone want 7%? We should just bet sports,and to hell with them.Have a few less stakes,and increase the purses of the lesser horse races by that method.Steve,we pay way too much take out as it is.We shouldn't be paying a penny over 10%,and these people want 7% just for themselves? They don't deserve my support,and they don't have it.It's too much.This is the major problem with racing.You aren't gunna get a lot of new players,because there just aren't enough stupid people willing to simply piss away 17-30% of what they bet.It's way too much.They've already done irreversible harm to their image.They come off this week looking like greedy pigs.They shouldn't be getting purse money..Why are they getting purse money if they aren't allowing the money to come in to help pay the purses?They should have stopped running races if they aren't gunna allow the track to get money to pay purses,or pay them just the purse money that can be paid from on-site betting at Churchill.Real easy to do this when they keep getting purse money.CUT THE PURSE MONEY OFF IF THEY WON'T ALLOW BETTING ON-LINE.THEY ARE BASICALLY ON STRIKE WHILE GETTING PAID FULL SALARY....REAL BRAVE.They better get this done in the next 6-8 hours.The horsemen aren't gunna be forgiven if they don't allow people to bet these 2 days.To take purse money without allowing the money to be made to pay for the purse money? Real Cute...real cute.

[Kasept]

I understand the complaints, but the takeout issue (14-25%) isn't the horseman's fault or problem. The state governments have been allowed to rob racing blind for years thanks to back room politics. The horsemen are the ones who get hurt FIRST in the financial equation in ways the fan and horseplayer do not see.

Hope you can find a way to play the cards..

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I understand the complaints, but the takeout issue (14-25%) isn't the horseman's fault or problem. The state governments have been allowed to rob racing blind for years thanks to back room politics. The horsemen are the ones who get hurt FIRST in the financial equation in ways the fan and horseplayer do not see.

Hope you can find a way to play the cards..

Taking it out on the players that pay these purses is unacceptable,and will never be forgiven.They are ruining the biggest week of the year.Just because they are greedy.It better get done in the next 6 hours or so,because fans are gunna blame the horsemen,and they will never ever forgive them.They have stole money for 5 days now.They shouldn't be getting paid purse money if they aren't willing to allow on-line betting to pay for the purses.Should have shut the track down on them.They should cancel this whole weekend.Nobody should get this weekend,if the fans don't get to enjoy it,then cancel the whole damn thing.I'm willing to have them strike,but not while getting paid.They can't have it both ways.Cancel it all,because the horsemen shouldn't be getting to enjoy the weekend if they aren't willing to have betting on it.I'M fine with solving it ,or cancelling it,but not with them getting money without the betting to pay for the purses.They've already stole money for 5 days now.I have no idea why these cards weren't cancelled starting last saturday.They should have been.Both these days need to get cancelled if this isn't solved in the next 6 hours.Paying them purse while not allowing betting is like getting paid while on strike.Track needs to play hardball,and cancel the weekend right now.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I understand the complaints, but the takeout issue (14-25%) isn't the horseman's fault or problem. The state governments have been allowed to rob racing blind for years thanks to back room politics. The horsemen are the ones who get hurt FIRST in the financial equation in ways the fan and horseplayer do not see.

Hope you can find a way to play the cards..

The 2 cards need to be cancelled unless the agreement gets done.Enough of this bullshit of paying them their purses.No betting ...no purses.They won't settle if they are getting their baby bottle purse money.That has to stop right now....today.They should not have Oaks day without allowing the betting that pays purses.

[blackthroatedwind]

So, Steve, you've spent a week and a half talking to trainers, and believing everything they say, and now, suddenly, you think horseplayers should be supporting them?

I have just one question.....since when, as a group, have they supported us?

[ArlJim78]

i can't think of anything more destructive than having various groups holding the derby hostage every year and screwing the players who use adws.

[hailrazer]

I don't follow the intricate workings of track management and horsemens finances so it would be difficult for me to place blame or support on one side or the other in this dispute. I have used Brisbet (now Twinspires) for years and have dumped way more money than I can afford into the pockets of all concerned. But for the next 2 days, I will be betting on Bodog and I'm pretty sure no one associated with horse racing is going to see a penny of my money. I will receive a rebate sometime next week enabling me to bet a couple of "free" races. I can't say for sure if I'll go back to betting through the track's pools in the future, but there has to be some fallout from this mess and I wonder if there will be any winners when this race is over....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So, Steve, you've spent a week and a half talking to trainers, and believing everything they say, and now, suddenly, you think horseplayers should be supporting them?

Yeah.. exactly. Can't believe I never spoke to a trainer before these last 10 days... I've learned a lot.

To hell with all the groups. I hate the herd mentality.

[Rootdog1]

Question: Can you play a $1 oaks Derby Double or is it a $2 bet?

[Oaklawnfan]

Originally Posted by hailrazer

But for the next 2 days, I will be betting on Bodog and I'm pretty sure no one associated with horse racing is going to see a penny of my money. I will receive a rebate sometime next week enabling me to bet a couple of "free" races. I can't say for sure if I'll go back to betting through the track's pools in the future, but there has to be some fallout from this mess and I wonder if there will be any winners when this race is over....

I will too. First because of where I am, it's a necessity. With this kind of stuff going on, it's going to take more than Jim Rome owning a horse to promote the sport.

[SentToStud]

I am with the horsemen. If for no other reason that they haven't caved and are using their leverage as strongly as possible. Why shouldn't purses reflect an even split of the ADW revenue between tracks, horsemen and ADW companies?

Churchill no doubt will win the PR battle and people will blame the horsemen. But this has been out there for months and the plain fact is Churchill execs can't get the job done. Dunn is the falll guy.

I'm going to the Bahamas for the day and night. Hopefully Merv Griffin's place will be kind to me.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

I am with the horsemen. If for no other reason that they haven't caved and are using their leverage as strongly as possible. Why shouldn't purses reflect an even split of the ADW revenue between tracks, horsemen and ADW companies?

Churchill no doubt will win the PR battle and people will blame the horsemen. But this has been out there for months and the plain fact is Churchill execs can't get the job done. Dunn is the falll guy.

I'm going to the Bahamas for the day and night. Hopefully Merv Griffin's place will be kind to me.

Since you obviously know a great deal about this situation, maybe you could enlighten the rest of us by telling us what percentage of handle the horsemen currently get through purses and what rates Churchill charges for its signal. It will be much easier then for you to explain to us how the horsemen are getting an unfair split.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

Question: Can you play a $1 oaks Derby Double or is it a $2 bet?

i tried on twinspires.com to bet it for $1 and this is the message:

There was an error with your bet.
Response: REQUESTED BET AMOUNT IS NOT ALLOWED

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i can't think of anything more destructive than having various groups holding the derby hostage every year and screwing the players who use adws.

I can... imagine living in a state, like say MISSOURI, where you have to drive out of state to make any bets.

[Rootdog1]

Anyone else try to be a $1 oaks derby double

[ateamstupid]

Program Changes for KENTUCKY OAKS DAY, Friday, May 2, 2008 (day 6 of 52)

Last updated: 10:28 a.m. ET

Main Track: FAST
Turf Course: FIRM (Lane 1, on the hedge)
Post time: 11 a..m. EDT

Race 1 - Pick 4 begins (races 1-4)
#5 Spirit Lane +3

Race 2
Jockey change #2 Quiet Meadow - Rafael Bejarano
#4 Carnival City +3
#5 French Kiss +3
Scratch #8 Youthquake

Race 3
Scratch #2 Biker Boy

Race 4
#4 Major Advantage +1
#8 Citystepper +1

Race 5 - 14th running of the $100,000-added Aegon Turf Sprint/Pick 6 Begins (races 5-10)/Carryover $12,391
No changes

Race 6 - 23rd running of the $300,000-added Louisville Stakes (GII)
Scratch #1 Silver Knockers
Scratch #4 Bayou's Lassie

Race 7 - 24th running of the $150,000-added Edgewood/Pick 4 Begins (races 7-10)
Scratch #9 Summer Courtship

Race 8 - 5th running of the $150,000-added Alysheba (GIII)
#2 Wanderin Boy +1

Race 9 - 17th running of the Crown Royal American Turf (GIII)
Scratch #11 Cape of Storms

Race 10 - 134th running of the $500,000-added Kentucky Oaks (GI)/$1 Super Hi-5 (no carryover)
Scratch #12 Eight Belles

Race 11
#5 Tates Queen +2
Scratch #8 No Warning
#12 Voice +1

Frankel must be PISSED that Bayou's Lassie scratched, so now Ginger Punch has nothing to run at..

[cassie]

where the kentucky killers picks hes not going to leave us now is he

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by cassie

where the kentucky killers picks hes not going to leave us now is he

He's at the Downs, so I guess we're going to have to navigate the races alone today!