Memo to Dutrow, Casino Drive is Godzilla

[pointman]

Originally Posted by CSC

The way Casino Drive is being talked up of late and leading up to The Belmont, Big Brown may be the distant second choice in the race.

I can only pray such a thing could happen.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

Look all you want. You better have it on top and bottom if you want to run 12f and beat a horse with Casino Drive's pedigree.

LOL

Think what you want ... we shall see on June 7th. I don't think the 12 panels is going to be a problem for this horse. As fragile as the Mineshaft's have been, you better hope Casino Drive holds up for a mile and a half.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The horses who have upset the T.C. candidates haven't had to be great. They just needed to finish up well. It isn't about them. The combination of

1) peaking in the Preakness

2) slightly different surface (looser "big sandy" surface)

3) no tight turns they are so used to

4) 12 f

seems to be what beats them....Not other horses.

[Zippy Chippy]

Desormeaux gave Big Brown a hand ride yesterday and crushed the field by five lengths. This horse still has a lot left in the tank, and there really isn't a good reason to think that he can't go 12 panels in three weeks against this competition and win.

Casino Drive may put up a fight, but I don't see Big Brown losing the Belmont.

[Zippy Chippy]

Forgive me for having too much time on my hands, but I was curious to see what the odds of one broodmare foaling the winner of a race like the Belmont three years in a row.

Using an rough estimate of 35,000 foals per year:
The odds of a broodmare foaling one Belmont winner is 1 in 35,000.
The odds of a broodmare foaling two consecutive Belmont winners is 1 in 1,225,000,000.
The odds of a broodmare foaling three consecutive Belmont winners is 1 in 42,875,000,000,000.

I'm no mathematician, so take it for what it's worth. Either way, it could be historic Belmont. If Casino Drive does pull it off, then Better Than Honor will have beaten some incredible odds.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs. Since the last T.C. winner, there have been 11 who have won the 1st two legs. None , so far, have taken the 3rd leg. I do think that Desormeaux's experience in the race helps. Also, I think the trainer's enhancements may help. There are arguments in favor of both sides. There really was not a good argument against him winning the Preakness.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Jazil was very average and won a weak Belmont, although the time was decent IIRC.


Rags beat Curlin because of a slow pace, not stamina or outright ability.


Casino Drive looks like he should be better than Jazil. Is Big Brown better than Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver?
It could be a good race. Brown has that huge tactical speed to go along with his huge ability and stamina.

I'm gonna go out on the limb and say I think Big Brown may be better than Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver. Just a little.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Do you think Bird Droppings was better than Smarty?

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

I'm gonna go out on the limb and say I think Big Brown may be better than Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver. Just a little.

Just a little? I don't know, are you sure? LOL. Ali v. Marciano, Ali v. Tyson, Tiger v. Palmer, Tiger v. Nicklaus, and so on.

Eric

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs. Since the last T.C. winner, there have been 11 who have won the 1st two legs. None , so far, have taken the 3rd leg. I do think that Desormeaux's experience in the race helps. Also, I think the trainer's enhancements may help. There are arguments in favor of both sides. There really was not a good argument against him winning the Preakness.

We wont know for three weeks, but I feel that Smarty and Funny Cide were both pushed in the Preakness a little to hard. They won by open lenghts but I think it took a lot more out of them than Big Brown.

Big Brown didnt even look tired after the race and the only time he actually ran hard were those 5 strides he took to open up 6 on the field. Kent looked like he had a hold of him for like a mile in that race. shoot he even said he was still holding him back around the far turn, and once he opened up Kent eased on him. He looked like he wanted to run 2 miles yesterday.

I may go out on the limb and say there will be at least 6 lengths between Big Brown and Casino Drive at the end of the Belmont, with Big Brown in front of course. I really feel it will be a Point Given / Afleet Alex type Belmont performance.

[Zippy Chippy]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Go back,and you'll see that both Smarty and Funny Cide won the Preakness in similar fashion. Dutrow's "techniques" may get him through the last leg, but this race is not like the other 2 legs.

If I recall correctly, wasn't Funny Cide needlessly whipped all the way to the wire in his Preakness? It seemed like that driving finish sapped him of energy that he would need three weeks later. As for Smarty, I wonder if he was running against a stronger crop with more legitimate contenders. It seemed like they threw speed at him the whole way. I kind of think that Big Brown can rate the speedballs and take over the race once they have burned out.

[ELA]

I won't debate the Preakness aspect itself, but with Funny Cide -- he was becoming sharper and sharper, and more unmanagable as they got closer to the Belmont. His final work before the Belmont was merely the culmination of what had been going on. This is no reflection on Tagg by the way as I think he is an excellent horseman, and he is very well respected by his peers.

Eric

[Ogygian]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

Big Brown will be 1-9. Take it to the bank. Casino will probably be 4-1, just like Rags. I suspect Casino will do to Big Brown what Rags did to Curlin. The better horse won't win this race but the better 12f horse will win this race. I don't think Big Brown will want that last 1/4.

As for people saying Casino won't be close enough to Big Brown, Casino is a stalker or a front runner. He will be glued to Big Brown the entire way and then we will find out who wants to run 12f. I think Casino will run a solid 226 time. If Big Brown can top that then he deserves to win. This isn't going to be some cakewalk though where Big Brown can run a 228 and win. A sub 110 beyer probably won't do it against Casino at 12f.

Only two horses since Secretariat have gone 126..Easy Goer and AP Indy,there is no WAY Casino Drive runs a 126...the horse has run two times...two times, let me say it again TWO times and somehow you and these other goofballs think he is a monster. I am hoping to at least see a triple crown winner in my lifetime, hoping to see a good race and BB crosing the line first.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Better Than Honour

Big Brown will be 1-9. Take it to the bank. Casino will probably be 4-1, just like Rags. I suspect Casino will do to Big Brown what Rags did to Curlin. The better horse won't win this race but the better 12f horse will win this race. I don't think Big Brown will want that last 1/4.

Depending on how many enter, if Big Brown is 1-9, I don't think it's possible for another horse to be less than 7-1 or so.
With Casino Drive, Denis of Cork and perhaps a few more fresh horses coming in, I highly doubt Big Brown would be 1-9. Even casual fans know how difficult it is winning the triple crown, and many will be trying to beat him on Belmont day.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by ELA

I won't debate the Preakness aspect itself, but with Funny Cide -- he was becoming sharper and sharper, and more unmanagable as they got closer to the Belmont. His final work before the Belmont was merely the culmination of what had been going on. This is no reflection on Tagg by the way as I think he is an excellent horseman, and he is very well respected by his peers.

Eric

Thats right... I forgot and he was rank as hell in the Belmont... who knows what may have happened if he could settle. It would have been tough beating Empire Maker though.

I dont think Casino Drive is anything like Empire Maker... or Birdstone for that matter. or Victory Gallop.. or Touch Gold... I can go on and on.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,we are due for a T. C. Winner. I do know if he doesn't want the full 12f, then he we be found out. I think, compared to the tracks he has been running on, this actually will feel like a mile and 3/4 race. He may want that, and he may not. The fact that Jazil looked like did(against horses he already faced in the Derby) should show you how different it is from the other 2 legs. Certain horses either adore the surface, or the distance. People don't realize some really like the change to this surface.

[Ogygian]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Do you think Bird Droppings was better than Smarty?

On that day he was...was Coastal better then the Bid?, was Sarava better then War Emblem?

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Well,we are due for a T. C. Winner. I do know if he doesn't want the full 12f, then he we be found out. I think, compared to the tracks he has been running on, this actually will feel like a mile and 3/4 race. He may want that, and he may not. The fact that Jazil looked like did(against horses he already faced in the Derby) should show you how different it is from the other 2 legs. Certain horses either adore the surface, or the distance. People don't realize some really like the change to this surface.

I love Jazil but the reason he won is because he was the only horse capable of running the 12f. The 95 beyer was incredibly slow but the pedigree usually wins out in the belmont.

[pgiaco]

Who is going to make Big Brown run for more than maybe 3 furlongs of the Belmont? Certainly no one we've seen so far, and if you say Casino Drive will press him from when they kick it I will puke.

[Better Than Honour]

Originally Posted by pgiaco

Who is going to make Big Brown run for more than maybe 3 furlongs of the Belmont? Certainly no one we've seen so far, and if you say Casino Drive will press him from when they kick it I will puke.

Why wouldn't Casino press him? Casino is obviously talented. More talented than anything Big Brown has faced. Casino's mother has also won this race 2 years in a row with her offspring. Did you think Rags would beat HOY Curlin in last years Belmont?