Big Brown - Overrated?

[SniperSB23]

Figured I'd pick the two most overhyped horses of the past several years to compare Big Brown to in hopes that the ridiculous overhyping of this horse to the superlative degree stops.

LITF
103, 109, 102, 105, 105, 110

Bernardini
68, 90, 104, 113, 114, 116 (if you exclude his first race then his next figure was 117)

Big Brown
90, 106, 106, 109, 100, ???

So he doesn't even compare favorably with the last two overhyped horses and people want to compare him to Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Figured I'd pick the two most overhyped horses of the past several years to compare Big Brown to in hopes that the ridiculous overhyping of this horse to the superlative degree stops.

LITF
103, 109, 102, 105, 105, 110

Bernardini
68, 90, 104, 113, 114, 116 (if you exclude his first race then his next figure was 117)

Big Brown
90, 106, 106, 109, 100, ???

So he doesn't even compare favorably with the last two overhyped horses and people want to compare him to Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid?

I think this is Beyer's point which you can't argue.. What you can't argue either is that he has done everything asked of him very easily and his two derby wins Fl and KY are very very impressive. Remember at this point in Slew's career Beyer wasn't exactly popping the Champagne either..

[Rudeboyelvis]

I don't know why everyone is so adamant in trying to find yet another angle to take a dump on this horse - He's undefeated, and a strong candidate for the Triple Crown.
Is the balance of the crop weaker than normal? Sure. But that's the way it goes - Too bad AGS was born a year too soon, He'd be smoking this crop on his way to immortality instead of an afterthought behind Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin.

But BB's accomplishments thus far have been spectacular to watch, and while I am no fan of Dutrow or IEAH, I'm not holding that against the horse. I don't need 115+ BSF's to prove anything - he does what he has to do to get the job done, and does it professionally. That's all you can ask of a horse in my book, it ain't his fault that his competition is sub par.

[slotdirt]

I don't think Lost in the Fog was particularly overhyped. Bernardini was also clearly a superior animal, though with only seven career starts prior to retirement, it would be pretty hard to determine how good he really was. Not as good as Invasor at least, I suppose.

I was just perusing through the Bloodhorse list of top 100 throughbreds of the 20th century, and couldn't help but notice the huge discrepancy between the horses on that list who ran in the 90's (Silver Charm, Cigar, Skip Away, etc.) and the horses we see today. All of those horses ran at least 24 times in their careers. I would think if you put together a top 50 list of the best horses of this decade, most of the names on the list wouldn't have started many more than 10 times.

Anyway, bit of a thread hijack, I know, but it's just interesting to note that while the average number of starts for a horse probably isn't declining, I'd have to imaging the average career starts for stakes horses are declining significantly in the very recent past.

[ArlJim78]

I don't know why when you try to accurately assess a horses true level of ability, its considered dumping on the horse.

[sumitas]

One could say that the factory farms, uh, commercial breeders, have realized their potential over the last 20 + years. Horse racing has not.

Therefore, a ban on enhancement performing drugs is needed. Testing anytime, anywhere. 3 strikes and you're out for cheating trainers. Reduce the length of toe grabs. Have a nationwide off season when there is no racing whatsoever. Eliminate the dirt surfaces. These are just a few things on the table that can be done.

[King Glorious]

I don't think either Fog or Bernardini were overhyped.

Big Brown is a potential superhorse. At this point though, I haven't seen more from him than I have from those two or actually, quite a few others over the past decade. My way of evaluating them is to say that to be even considered a great horse, they have to either beat top competition or run really fast races. It's got to be one or the other, preferrably both. So far, Big Brown has done neither. Maybe there's something to this whole "geared down, not being asked" stuff and there is a lot more in the tank. Maybe not. We all saw Smarty's Preakness. We saw Bernardini's Travers. We saw Point Given's Belmont. These were similar instances where the competition was non-existent but the horse still put on a great performance speed wise. We just haven't seen that yet from Big Brown. I read somewhere that because his career ending is already set and because the Belmont may well be his last race, we may see them let loose with him in that race and then maybe we'll get to see what he's really got. I sure hope so.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I don't know why everyone is so adamant in trying to find yet another angle to take a dump on this horse - He's undefeated, and a strong candidate for the Triple Crown.
Is the balance of the crop weaker than normal? Sure. But that's the way it goes - Too bad AGS was born a year too soon, He'd be smoking this crop on his way to immortality instead of an afterthought behind Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin.

But BB's accomplishments thus far have been spectacular to watch, and while I am no fan of Dutrow or IEAH, I'm not holding that against the horse. I don't need 115+ BSF's to prove anything - he does what he has to do to get the job done, and does it professionally. That's all you can ask of a horse in my book, it ain't his fault that his competition is sub par.

He's a very nice horse and I don't fault him for that or for not having competition. But until he proves otherwise with a huge performance I don't want to hear people calling him the best since Spectacular Bid or up there with Secretariat and Seattle Slew when that is so far from the truth.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

He's a very nice horse and I don't fault him for that or for not having competition. But until he proves otherwise with a huge performance I don't want to hear people calling him the best since Spectacular Bid or up there with Secretariat and Seattle Slew when that is so far from the truth.

Who called him that?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Who called him that?

Billy Turner and Ken McPeek among others:

http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories...date=5/19/2008

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

- Too bad AGS was born a year too soon, He'd be smoking this crop on his way to immortality instead of an afterthought behind Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin.

HA HA HA HA HA

Oh LORD, I needed a good laugh today.

you really should hook up with DanG over at PA; he's got it bad for AGS as well.

[Bobby Fischer]

Saturday had those two races(haskell/dwyer) where he was Ghostzapper, and the rest of the season he was Bluegrass Cat.

Tampa Derby was pretty awesome as well.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

BB's figures are lacking almost as much as his quality of opposition is.

However, he hasn't had anything close to the kind of trip or circumstances that leads to a big figure.

* In his return at GP, from a long layoff, off of just two works, he got mixed up in a pace battle with a couple of speedy horses and won stylishly anyway - his pace rivals were a badly fractured last and 2nd to last as the 2nd and 3rd choices in the betting.

* In the Florida Derby he was marooned out in post 12 at GP. He was wisely ridden hard out of the gate - but was still caught wide enough on the first turn.

* In the Kentucky Derby he broke from post 20 and won despite being hung wide throughout. Showing the ability to rate kind and finish strong at a Classic distance

* In the Preakness, the two pacesetters tried to box him in and race ride. With the bullseye on him, he had to rate his way off the inside and out into the clear. The two pacesetters finished 11th and 12th in a field of 12 - more than 7 lengths behind the 10th place finisher. The pace was decent and he fractured his pace companions with his move.

If you look at the big figures this year - they are a 119 by Commentator and a 118 by Monetarry Jazz. Both came when allowed to crawl on uncontested leads, through absurdly slow 1st quarters, at a middle distance, in races TOTALLY lacking speed.

I believe that BB's best distance is a middle distance. He's just winning these races at Classic distances because he's overwhelmingly superior to the bums he's facing.

He's certainly a better horse than Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday. Through five career races - I'd also give him a slim edge over Curlin.

Even though I'm certain we haven't seen Big Brown's good race yet - and we won't see it in the Belmont - his numbers aren't much - and if a forgotten type horse like a Captain Bodgit would have been in the '08 Preakness instead of the '97 Preakness he would have been defeated for sure.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Saturday had those two races(haskell/dwyer) where he was Ghostzapper.

He took advantage of a dream trip in a paceless Dwyer.

In the Haskell he rode a live rail - while a stumbling start and the hopeless Cable Boy prevented Hard Spun from getting the lead where he runs his best races from.

Curlin was returning from a layoff - and is a wide running type horse who was up against it with the way the track was playing that day.

AGS's best race was open lengths inferior to Ghostzapper's average race.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

BB's figures are lacking almost as much as his quality of opposition is.

However, he hasn't had anything close to the kind of trip or circumstances that leads to a big figure.

* In his return at GP, from a long layoff, off of just two works, he got mixed up in a pace battle with a couple of speedy horses and won stylishly anyway - his pace rivals were a badly fractured last and 2nd to last as the 2nd and 3rd choices in the betting.

* In the Florida Derby he was marooned out in post 12 at GP. He was wisely ridden hard out of the gate - but was still caught wide enough on the first turn.

* In the Kentucky Derby he broke from post 20 and won despite being hung wide throughout. Showing the ability to rate kind and finish strong at a

* In the Preakness, the two pacesetters tried to box him in and race ride. With the bullseye on him, he had to rate his way off the inside and out into the clear. The two pacesetters finished 11th and 12th in a field of 12 - more than 7 lengths behind the 10th place finisher. The pace was decent and he fractured his pace companions with his move.

If you look at the big figures this year - they are a 119 by Commentator and a 118 by Monetarry Jazz. Both came when allowed to crawl on uncontested leads, through absurdly slow 1st quarters, at a middle distance, in races TOTALLY lacking speed.

I believe that BB's best distance is a middle distance. He's just winning these races at Classic distances because he's overwhelmingly superior to the bums he's facing.

He's certainly a better horse than Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday. Through five career races - I'd also give him a slim edge over Curlin.

Even though I'm certain we haven't seen Big Brown's good race yet - and we won't see it in the Belmont - his numbers aren't much - and if a forgotten type horse like a Captain Bodgit would have been in the '08 Preakness instead of the '97 Preakness he would have been defeated for sure.

Such genius

[lemoncrush]

Comparing Big Brown to LITF is apples and oranges.
It doesn't seem fair to compare a sprinter who pretty much only ran 6F races over dirt, to a horse trying for the Triple Crown.
I can see the Bernadini comparison, but again...he only ran in 1 triple crown race. I'm not overhyping Big Brown, but I think a fair comparison right now would be other horses at this stage of their career (mid-way through their 3-yo campaign).

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

BB's figures are lacking almost as much as his quality of opposition is.

However, he hasn't had anything close to the kind of trip or circumstances that leads to a big figure.

* In his return at GP, from a long layoff, off of just two works, he got mixed up in a pace battle with a couple of speedy horses and won stylishly anyway - his pace rivals were a badly fractured last and 2nd to last as the 2nd and 3rd choices in the betting.

* In the Florida Derby he was marooned out in post 12 at GP. He was wisely ridden hard out of the gate - but was still caught wide enough on the first turn.

* In the Kentucky Derby he broke from post 20 and won despite being hung wide throughout. Showing the ability to rate kind and finish strong at a Classic distance

* In the Preakness, the two pacesetters tried to box him in and race ride. With the bullseye on him, he had to rate his way off the inside and out into the clear. The two pacesetters finished 11th and 12th in a field of 12 - more than 7 lengths behind the 10th place finisher. The pace was decent and he fractured his pace companions with his move.

If you look at the big figures this year - they are a 119 by Commentator and a 118 by Monetarry Jazz. Both came when allowed to crawl on uncontested leads, through absurdly slow 1st quarters, at a middle distance, in races TOTALLY lacking speed.

I believe that BB's best distance is a middle distance. He's just winning these races at Classic distances because he's overwhelmingly superior to the bums he's facing.

He's certainly a better horse than Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday. Through five career races - I'd also give him a slim edge over Curlin.

Even though I'm certain we haven't seen Big Brown's good race yet - and we won't see it in the Belmont - his numbers aren't much - and if a forgotten type horse like a Captain Bodgit would have been in the '08 Preakness instead of the '97 Preakness he would have been defeated for sure.

Couldn't agree more with your trip analysis.

Tough to compare him with Hard Spun, Street Sense, & Curlin at this point in his career (he's definitely better than Any Given Saturday however). I'd put him ahead of all three, but not by the margins you seem to be thinking.

[the_fat_man]

In my 30 years of watching races

BB is to most horses

what a geared bike is to a fixed gear bike.

When you ride geared, the gears do a good deal of the work for you; you can stop and start and coast with relative ease. Riding fixed gear, YOU do all the work, and stopping and starting takes a significant amount of energy; and you can't coast.

All the other stuff is irrelevant or banal.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

In my 30 years of watching races

BB is to most horses

what a geared bike is to a fixed gear bike.

When you ride geared, the gears do a good deal of the work for you; you can stop and start and coast with relative ease. Riding fixed gear, YOU do all the work, and stopping and starting takes a significant amount of energy; and you can't coast.

All the other stuff is irrelevant or banal.

Hey FAT - Barbaro, Bernardini, Curlin or Brown ??
in what order

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Hey FAT - Barbaro, Bernardini, Curlin or Brown ??
in what order

Curlin/Brown/Barbaro/Bernardini