How to bet exotics??

[timmgirvan]

Hey folks: I'm curious as to how the players construct a bet! Especially spreading on a tri-wheel! I've had luck with the 10 super, but am going now strictly on tris'....mainly because Kasept put out the 35-1 shot that gave me a 1753 payout! BUT...I'm concerned that I'm putting too much on the table to try and catch them regularly! I realize that many are WPS bettors here...but in order to make up a ticket(pic6,4,3) you have to come to a conclusion as to who will hit the board anyway! Any thoughts??

Originally Posted by timmgirvan

Hey folks: I'm curious as to how the players construct a bet! Especially spreading on a tri-wheel! I've had luck with the 10 super, but am going now strictly on tris'....mainly because Kasept put out the 35-1 shot that gave me a 1753 payout! BUT...I'm concerned that I'm putting too much on the table to try and catch them regularly! I realize that many are WPS bettors here...but in order to make up a ticket(pic6,4,3) you have to come to a conclusion as to who will hit the board anyway! Any thoughts??

Well the first thing that I try to stay away from is from boxing horses in a trifecta or super. No way should you give equal weight to more than 2 horses. Now I dont mind boxing in an exacta. In fact, I would suggest boxing in an exacta. If I am betting a tri and I find a horse to put on top and the horse is greater than 9-1 I will put that horse on top with all and all (especially if it is a large field). But also keep in mind that you better have win money on the horse. If you have a 10 horse field and you key a horse on top with all and all you are looking at a $72 ticket for $1. $72 to win on a 9-1 horse will yield a profit of $648.00. If your 9-1 is followed by fav and fav then you wont be making much if any at all. This race from Arlington is a perfect example

7 Stormin Gen. Tommy Eduardo E. Perez 20.80 11.00 5.80
10 Outer Bounds Earlie Fires 5.60 3.40
6 Amon Rene R. Douglas 2.40


Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff

$1 Pick 3 4-6-7 (3 correct) 169.30
$1 Pick 4 3/4-4-6-7 (4 correct) 232.30
$2 Exacta 7-10 129.80
$2 Superfecta 7-10-6-4 2,515.80
$2 Trifecta 7-10-6 436.00

For the $1 tri you got back $218. Now this was an 11 horse field. So to go single with all with all then your ticket is $90. $90 to win on the 7 horse would have yielded a profit of $846.00. The reason why I picked this race is because I had the $1 tri and $90 to win. So be careful betting exotics.

[timmgirvan]

Euro: thanks for the input! You're playing with more capital than I do,but the theory I understand.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Trips & supers can be fun.. just dont spend your whole bankroll on them.. and allways remember to place some win bets... I like to hit the first Daily Double..then have some play money for some tri's...Allways remember that the favs dont allways run 1 -2-3... so look for some value... Have fun & dont bet over your head !!

Originally Posted by timmgirvan

Euro: thanks for the input! You're playing with more capital than I do,but the theory I understand.

With small capital you still want to follow the same structure philosophy. Find yourself a single and then narrow the 2nd place horses and make sure to go deep in 3rd. Any horse, no matter how bad they look on paper, can get up for 3rd. Also look for tendencies of horses. If you have a horse that has 21 career starts with 1 win, but has 4 places and 6 shows then that is a good horse to key in 2nd and 3rd. So basically you flip your key to 2nd or 3rd. I would not invest tons in a trifecta. I would not bet anymore than $20. That is a single with 5 with 5. That is a pretty good bet. When I used to bet trifectas, I would structure my tickets like this.

x
with
xxx
with
all

The cost depends on the field. But once you get a bank roll, you will be better serve by betting to win.

[Thunder Gulch]

I play a lot of $27 trifectas with the general format
1,2,3/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5 ....obviously, it varies somewhat from race to race, but I never go over this number of combinations, instead often reducing the first slot to two contenders, or the middle to three. With exactas, I usually only play if I can key one horse over a couple of others.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Thanks for all the ""food for thought""... Nice read, gee Im learning something...

[timmgirvan]

Yeah....I was using triboxs' and the started to spread when I just missed a big one(Saratoga was a bitch last week) to usually 18 bucks....but my wins went down...so I'm rethinking my approach for money management and efficient bet strategy.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by timmgirvan

Hey folks: I'm curious as to how the players construct a bet! Especially spreading on a tri-wheel! I've had luck with the 10 super, but am going now strictly on tris'....mainly because Kasept put out the 35-1 shot that gave me a 1753 payout! BUT...I'm concerned that I'm putting too much on the table to try and catch them regularly! I realize that many are WPS bettors here...but in order to make up a ticket(pic6,4,3) you have to come to a conclusion as to who will hit the board anyway! Any thoughts??

I agree with Eurobounce that in general you don't want to put too many horses on top. You may have a situation where you have it down to 4 or 5 horses but you think that some of these horses aren't likely to win but could get a piece. In a situation like that, you may just want to use your top two picks on top, your top 3 or 4 picks in the 2nd spot, and then maybe your top 4 or 5 in the 3rd spot.
Do you realize that if you played a $1 trifecta using your top 2 picks on top, your top 4 picks in the 2nd spot, and your top 5 picks in the 3rd spot, that ticket would only cost you $18. If you boxed all five horses, it would cost you $60.

If there is a 25-1 shot that you think might get a piece, but you doubt that he could win, there is no reason to give him as much weight on your ticket as a 4-1 shot that you love. If you box all the horses, then you are giving the 25-1 shot equal weight on the ticket. I'd rather not use him on top if I don't think he can win.

[Thunder Gulch]

My typical pick 3 strategy is three seperate bets where I try to key one horse in each with 2-4 in the others. Three $9 bets would look something like this: 1/1,2,3/1,2,3 + 1,2,3/1/1,2,3 + 1,2,3/1,2,3/1. If I can catch keys on two of the three races, you are in great shape to hit two pick 3's. If you only hit one, still a good shot at coming ahead. I do this and roll them through the card when I like the races. Probably not the best strategy, but I'll even play some races I don't like if I see something interesting in the other two legs.

[timmgirvan]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

My typical pick 3 strategy is three seperate bets where I try to key one horse in each with 2-4 in the others. Three $9 bets would look something like this: 1/1,2,3/1,2,3 + 1,2,3/1/1,2,3 + 1,2,3/1,2,3/1. If I can catch keys on two of the three races, you are in great shape to hit two pick 3's. If you only hit one, still a good shot at coming ahead. I do this and roll them through the card when I like the races. Probably not the best strategy, but I'll even play some races I don't like if I see something interesting in the other two legs.

OK...I can see that....it'll be useful for pik3s Thanks

[ceejay]

I'm still working on my intrarace methods (and I have a hard time figuring who will finish 3rd or 4th) but a few things are clear to me:
Leave the favorite out of the 3-hole. As I understand it, statistically the fav is less likely to finish 3rd than first and the 3-hole in the Tri isn't a show bet. Also, the payoff will be underlaid.
Don't use the ALL key anywhere. That is saying you have no idea and hoping for a longshot. If that's what you want just put the longshots in the 3-hole.

Because I'm better at picking winners than third finishers I'll go deeper in the 3-hole. Something like 1,2/1,2,3,4/2,3,4,5,6 for $22 if the 1 is a favorite. or throw the 1 in the bottom for $2 more if not the favorite.

[ceejay]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

My typical pick 3 strategy is three seperate bets where I try to key one horse in each with 2-4 in the others. Three $9 bets would look something like this: 1/1,2,3/1,2,3 + 1,2,3/1/1,2,3 + 1,2,3/1,2,3/1. If I can catch keys on two of the three races, you are in great shape to hit two pick 3's. If you only hit one, still a good shot at coming ahead. I do this and roll them through the card when I like the races. Probably not the best strategy, but I'll even play some races I don't like if I see something interesting in the other two legs.

I like this too. I add the 2,3/2,3/2,3 to it too sometimes.