Travers Winner Runs Friday

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I'm excited to see him run, but "Travers Winner Runs Friday" is probably going to elicit some negativity.

In general it's a little silly but right now he's not far from the early favorite.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In general it's a little silly but right now he's not far from the early favorite.

If he runs a similar race tomorrow, I'll be on the bandwagon.

By the way, I was gonna bet Stormy Mirage, but I got no value.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think it's funny that most everyone has been talking about how weak this year's 3YOs have been and yet when an exciting one finally appears people are suggesting that the morass of mediocrities are somehow going to beat him.

i have looked over the race again, i would be shocked if mint lane beats him... the horse to watch is zitos, 2 horse race in my opinion

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Some horses that ran behind Unbridled's Heart have come back to improve dramatically off that race. Impressive firsters can be flashes in the pan but I will be very surprised if Unbridled's Heart doesn't accomplish some serious things if he stays sound. I have seen very few debut performances, at least in the last few years, as impressive as his.

For what it's worth he was schooling in the Belmont Paddock during the day yesterday.

do you believe in the "key race" theory?

[pick4]

Three horses came back to win from both the 5/3 race11 @CD, and 5/10 race5@Belmont. They were quick to change Unbridled's Heart from a Darley to a Godolphin. This looks like an outstanding race with the improving Mint Lane, and Unbridled's Heart making his return to the races after that very impressive first time run earlier in the meet.

Unbridled's Heart will be heavily wagered on and might be a very good horse. But aren't you suppose to try and take a shot against him in this spot? Admirality is coming of a win at NW1X could be a good bet at around 5-1.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

do you believe in the "key race" theory?

As Pete Sampras was (and still is) fond of saying: "As long as I have my right arm, I'm a threat at Wimbeldon".

[Bobby Fischer]

UH won vs a bunch of maidens in an easy lead. I don't CARE what they came back to do. In the only UH race they didn't participate in the dynamics. They were irrelevent. It doesn't matter if they won the ARC or went 0-for 50, in the maiden race they played no part of opposition.

"Today", Unbridled's Heart faces Allowance/3yoUngraded Stakes level animals. He also face Mint Lane, a comparable pace factor, and Pascal - an opportunist who will participate in the pace if at all possible.

The most interesting thing about this race is probably how well UH rates behind and just outside of Mint Lane before drawing off to win.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by pick4

Three horses came back to win from both the 5/3 race11 @CD, and 5/10 race5@Belmont. They were quick to change Unbridled's Heart from a Darley to a Godolphin. This looks like an outstanding race with the improving Mint Lane, and Unbridled's Heart making his return to the races after that very impressive first time run earlier in the meet.

Unbridled's Heart will be heavily wagered on and might be a very good horse. But aren't you suppose to try and take a shot against him in this spot? Admirality is coming of a win at NW1X could be a good bet at around 5-1.

You're probably supposed to avoid betting the race. . .

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

UH won vs a bunch of maidens in an easy lead. I don't CARE what they came back to do. In the only UH race they didn't participate in the dynamics. They were irrelevent. It doesn't matter if they won the ARC or went 0-for 50, in the maiden race they played no part of opposition.

Wrong.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

do you believe in the "key race" theory?

Not the way most do.


I care how horses from a race come back to run....not necessarily whether or not they win. Most people lazily label races key races to their detriment because they aren't willing to do the work to really understand the race.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Wrong.

The race I watched , UH went to an easy lead and the others never factored. Did you see something else?

[pick4]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You're probably supposed to avoid betting the race. . .

You are probably correct. But a big fig maiden winner coming back against multiple winners is usually worth playing against. This race is pretty much a non winners of 2x. He is the most likely winner and he's moving up in class. What will you get paid if he wins? What if he regresses a bit and loses an overlayed horse might pay a nice price.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by pick4

You are probably correct. But a big fig maiden winner coming back against multiple winners is usually worth playing against. This race is pretty much a non winners of 2x. He is the most likely winner and he's moving up in class. What will you get paid if he wins? What if he regresses a bit and loses an overlayed horse might pay a nice price.

debatable IMO. If you are trying to beat the races, you pass unless you have a really strong case against UH or for another. The colt looked good and ran big in the lane after decent fractions. Just having fun? Yea take a shot for a few bucks to win a couple hundred.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by pick4

Three horses came back to win from both the 5/3 race11 @CD, and 5/10 race5@Belmont. They were quick to change Unbridled's Heart from a Darley to a Godolphin. This looks like an outstanding race with the improving Mint Lane, and Unbridled's Heart making his return to the races after that very impressive first time run earlier in the meet.

Unbridled's Heart will be heavily wagered on and might be a very good horse. But aren't you suppose to try and take a shot against him in this spot? Admirality is coming of a win at NW1X could be a good bet at around 5-1.

admirality is the play, zito scratched him belmont day for this spot... i liked him belmont day with julian and i think he was either 12-1 or 15-1 that day.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Not the way most do.


I care how horses from a race come back to run....not necessarily whether or not they win. Most people lazily label races key races to their detriment because they aren't willing to do the work to really understand the race.

what is your cold exacta in this race ? please !

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

debatable IMO. If you are trying to beat the races, you pass unless you have a really strong case against UH or for another. The colt looked good and ran big in the lane after decent fractions. Just having fun? Yea take a shot for a few bucks to win a couple hundred.

I wasn't talking about making a big wager against him. Taking a small shot to win a lot is what I was talking about.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by pick4

I wasn't talking about making a big wager against him. Taking a small shot to win a lot is what I was talking about.

i think he's far from a lock...and this is a decent group so if he crushes these, then i'd say he's special

[pick4]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

admirality is the play, zito scratched him belmont day for this spot... i liked him belmont day with julian and i think he was either 12-1 or 15-1 that day.

He might be a good play but it will depends on how the rest of the players wager on the race.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by pick4

He might be a good play but it will depends on how the rest of the players wager on the race.

should sit the trip... tons of speed with contessa, and mint lane and the favorite.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i think he's far from a lock...and this is a decent group so if he crushes these, then i'd say he's special

It looks like a good overnight stakes race and I agree that he's far from a lock but I would not be surprised to see him put away Mint Lane and cruise. On the flip side I would not be surprised to see crack under pressure. Hence my reason for taking a small shot against him.