8/10: Saratoga (Day 17)

[Kasept]

This increasingly unusual Saratog meet approaches the halfway point Sunday after a glorious Saturday that combined a great crowd, beautiful weather and cheap but fun racing. Came away from the day feeling like it had potenial to be an incredibly lucrative afternoon, but the biggest multi-race opportunities proved elusive. Caught the Late P4 ($219.00); Eternal Star's James Marvin trifecta ($101.50) and the 8th race triple ($130.00) which helped smooth out misses of the early Quad, Saratoga and 60 Min. P6. Day hinged to a great extent on KMc's Darkside Holiday in that MSW 8th. At a well overlaid 12-1, the firster was a key horse for me in all plays. A win by him skyrockets the P4 and earns 3 consos on my P6 play... Got little accomplished at Arlington. Hope you did well on the day!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


Pre-SCRATCHES


1st: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Wolfson 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Hawkwood 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Dr. W 3-1 5th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Precursor 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Charitable Man 7-2 WON
Exotics Use: #6 Trevelyan 3-1 5th
Best Value: #1e Zito entry 6-1 2nd


3rd: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2e Pletcher entry 2-1 2nd (for betting purposes)
Best Value: #1 (POE) Kamboo Man 5-1 WON/2nd
Next Best: #5 Defrereoftheheart 5-2 7th


4th: 29th Yaddo H., NYB-F&M, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Rewrite 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 You Go West Girl 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 SCR


5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #5 She Can Dance 4-1 5th
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #6 Offhand Remark 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 (POE) SCR


P4 Play:

2: 3-5-6
3: 1-2-5
4: 4-(5)
5: 5-6 (1-3-9)


6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Casanova Move 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #8 Belle Jour 9-2 5th
Super Add: #5 SCR


7th: 29th West Point H., NYB-3+, 9f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Al Basha 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Gimme Credit 9-2 4th
Next Best: #8 Banrock 5-2 WON
Super Add: #5 My Man Lars 20-1 3rd


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 SCR
Most Likely: #4 Swept the Series 7-2 9th
Next Best: #6 Unicorn Girl 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Demaliat 8-1 2nd


9th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 SCR
Best Value: #2 Sizzling Saint 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #4 Democrat 15-1 3rd


10th: OC/C, 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Screen to Screen 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Squeeze Now 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Discreet Treasure 5-2 2nd


11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Best Value: #3 SCR
Most Likely: #4 Sandstorm Cat 4-1 7th
Next Best: #7 It's Not for Love 3-1 8th
Super Add: #8 SCR


P4 Play:

8: 1-4-6 (5)
9: 2-(7)
10: 2-6-7
11: 4-7 (3-8)

3x1x3x2 = $18


Good luck!
Steve

[hockey2315]

I'm all over Hough's horse in the 6th. . . also like Weaver's piece in the nightcap.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Day hinged to a great extent on KMc's Darkside Holiday in that MSW 8th. At a well overlaid 12-1, the firster was a key horse for me in all play.

Hey, BBB, how could a firster be considered " overlaid? "






I know......when he's already run twice.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Steve, we've landed on a lot of the same horses today....don't know if that's good or bad! see you this afternoon

[CSC]

I kind of like 'You go West Girl' today in the Yaddo, she was beaten by only 5 lengths by a pretty good horse in Genuine Devotion at Churchill in her last race. She now drops in against the familiar state bred horses that seemingly take turns beating themselves. She looks interesting at her ML 9/2. Proctor has good shipping stats.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm all over Hough's horse in the 6th. . . also like Weaver's piece in the nightcap.

Like that one too.

[Storm Cadet]

NYRA site says track is fast but sealed for am works...just looked at radar in Albany and huge storms are only minutes away from track at 11 am

[Betsy]

I hope this question won't sound stupid, but why do they announce MTO scratches with the other early scratches? If there's heavy rain in the forecast, why not wait until later in the day so that, if the races do come off the turf, at least you will have decent fields?

thanks!

[CSC]

Chestoria is out of the Yaddo, makes this a little less interesting. Only 5 go as it stands now.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I hope this question won't sound stupid, but why do they announce MTO scratches with the other early scratches? If there's heavy rain in the forecast, why not wait until later in the day so that, if the races do come off the turf, at least you will have decent fields?

thanks!

They haven't scratched any MTO's yet today.

They keep an eye on the weather and usually scratch MTO's in the early pick 4 races when the scratches are announced early. They do usually wait until later in the day for the late MTO's, but when the P6 starts, they make their decision and scratch them or take the races off the turf.

Also, I am sure there are race day medications and procedures (detention barn) that trainers need to consider and do not want to wait until the last minute to scratch.

[TheSpyder]

Race 1: #1 3rd
Race 2: #1 2nd
Race 3: #2 2nd
Race 4: #1 2nd
Race 5: #5 nada
Race 6: #1 nada
Race 7: #9 nada
Race 8: #4,5,6,7, super
Race 9: #4 3rd
Race 10: #1 win
Race 11: #1 win

Play the #1 and you'll win money today!

Sorry I don't feel like pontificating like other posters but I don't have a lot to say....hangover !

Spyder

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

They haven't scratched any MTO's yet today.

They keep an eye on the weather and usually scratch MTO's in the early pick 4 races when the scratches are announced early. They do usually wait until later in the day for the late MTO's, but when the P6 starts, they make their decision and scratch them or take the races off the turf.

Also, I am sure there are race day medications and procedures (detention barn) that trainers need to consider and do not want to wait until the last minute to scratch.

Thanks, Bigsmc!

You make good points that I hadn't considered. It makes sense now...........

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

TOGA ABOUT TO GET HAMMERD
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/ra...=9999&smooth=0

[Bigsmc]

Braving the weather with an early P4:

2 - 3,5,6
3 - 1,2,5 (1 is a late add as they both like it wet)
4 - 1,3,4
5 - 1,5,6

GL

[fantini33]

Race 3) $2 Pick 3 --- 1 4 / 1 4 / 1 3 4 = $24
$10 DD --- 1 / 1 = $10
$10 Ex Box --- 1 4 = $20

[Mike]

I think it's Mission Approved in the 7th, on or off turf as lone speed. Mission's dirt form must have been good, and the Caro(Ireland) influence is good for wet dirt, if I recall correctly

[fantini33]

Nosed out of a $75.30 exacta x5...

[fantini33]

Races 5 & 11 Off The Turf

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Hey, BBB, how could a firster be considered " overlaid? "

I know......when he's already run twice.

Gee... 6-1 ML and 13-1 during the betting. Looked like an overlay to me. And, it was.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Races 5 & 11 Off The Turf

That really sucks they did this after the early pk4 already began. Look for MTO's, they have been underbet for the most part thus far as this meet.