mccain's vp

[GPK]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The VP debate is going to be the best thing of the entire season. This is a hilariously awful, desperate choice, and Biden is going to wipe the floor with her.

Just about every woman I've talked to so far sees this for exactly what it is, a cynical ploy that relies on the misguided assumption that women vote with their vaginas, ya know, because they're women and couldn't be trusted with making a sound judgment on anything so they'll be tricked immediately and without question because she is a woman -- even though she is a woman who holds policy views that are anathema to just about everything that actually helps women.

I can't wait for her to stand next to Biden and to get on the stump and try to talk about foreign policy. Obama, for all his so-called lack of experience, has well thought out, well-crafted policy ideas and has surrounded himself with folks like Biden who actually have the serious chops.

At this point, I believe that most well thought out foreign policy idea that came from Palin so far was that she had "heard" about the surge.

This woman, and McCain's reckless choice of her, just delivered this country from the shithole it's been driven into for the last eight years. And I couldn't be happier. Good for her.

The great news is that the GOP has wrapped up the coveted 18-25 male vote that loves MILFs. Early polls reporting record turnouts expected for this demographic.

I talked to 4 people that and they are all voting for McCain.

Top that!!

*blows head off*

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I talked to 4 people that and they are all voting for McCain.

Top that!!

*blows head off*

^^^^

ror!!!!



Obviously read Screwjack.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

In all honesty, what do you think of McCain's choice? Does it not seem a bit desperate?

It's a gamble that could pay off. Biden is a blowhard and a bully and he'll have to be on his best behavior in the debates or he'll come off as a bully and offend the soccer mom's and ArlJim's of the world.

Plus this nomination could sway a few of the feminazi bull dyke Hillary supporters as well as the religious nutters.

Not a bad gamble, IMO.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Stick your puds in your zippers.

It would have to be a blowie and anal only. She's way too fertile.

[geeker2]

Since when is the VP suppose to have such great responsibilites for foreign policy.....oh I see when the guy at the top of the ticket has no clue.

Could be interesting in the debate when they ask Obama about his foreign policy and he says..

"Can I ask the guy with hair-plugs for some help?"

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Since they are next in line to be President.

and the main line of attack on your opponent has been inexperience.

[Mortimer]

All Biden has to do is say.."Show tits."

[Mortimer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Stick your puds in your zippers.

Bite Sighty's tongue.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Plus this nomination could sway a few of the feminazi bull dyke Hillary supporters as well as the religious nutters.

Not a bad gamble, IMO.

The feminazi, bull dykers probably don't like Sarah Palin right off the bat, and absolutely won't once they know anything about her

I think I'm going to end up feeling sad for her, in the same way I felt bad when Ross Perot's V.P. pick was in that debate.

Palin is probably a very nice person, but...

(James Stockdale, died July 5th, 2005)

Originally Posted by Mike

The feminazi, bull dykers probably don't like Sarah Palin right off the bat, and absolutely won't once they know anything about her

I think I'm going to end up feeling sad for her, in the same way I felt bad when Ross Perot's V.P. pick was in that debate.

Palin is probably a very nice person, but...

(James Stockdale, died July 5th, 2005)

White female voters seemed very put off by what they
perceived as a snub by Obama's people at the Democratic
convention. They clearly felt like Hillary got run over, and they
are pissed. Now if they do truly represent Hillary's band of sisters,
they will not take kindly to Biden completely raping Palin in a debate.

I think this might effectively muffle Biden if he makes
any attempt to display that she is unqualified. And Biden
cant help being especially mean. Add to this
Obama's extensive lack of experience in the nuances
of international relations.
The Republicans made the race closer.
If Romney was picked, call Obama Mr. President.

My unqualified take.

And I still think this will be one of the most interesting presidential
elections. The last few had me bored stiff until the voting actually
took place and the Florida mess.

[Mike]

I hope it's an entertaining few months of politics.

I just saw Palin on tv, and her nipple was showing through her white blouse. I would have thought they(the Repubs) would want to stop this kind of stuff

They got Biden simply saying "She's good looking" on cnn.com like it's an obscene remark, and it does show, like you say, that Biden will have to be very careful not to seem condescending or chauvinistic

Perhaps she'll be the mother figure we need during this New Orleans Gustav Show they're putting on for us, though I don't think it will amount to much

[GBBob]

Biden will be walking on eggshells (Jane..you ignorant slut)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The VP debate is going to be the best thing of the entire season. This is a hilariously awful, desperate choice, and Biden is going to wipe the floor with her.

I actually think she could be a very tricky match-up for Biden.

Biden is a better debater than Obama and is great at ruthlessly slicing and dicing people up all while maintaing a big smile.

Like Pants says, if he doesn't change his style he could very easily come off as "a bully who offends the soccer moms and ArlJim's of the world"

You get the same comparitive scoring in debates that you tend to get from people in rounds of boxing matches - if it's close, and not obvious who the winner is, the person coming into the contest overmatched will get the edge in scoring. I expect you'll hear Palin to be declared the winner as long as she can avoid saying something stupid.

Obama is now heavily favored to win this election. His odds have fallen below 50 cents on a dollar. McCain's odds have risen above 2-to-1.

Unless that margin begains to tighten - I would think Biden is going to be sent into that debate playing mr. nice guy to such an extreme that you'd think he was going out of his way to try and make Palin look good. I don't expect him to try and bait her into saying something stupid either.

As a strong favorite, they have nothing to gain and possibly something to lose by sending an attack dog with a smile out to savage her.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pgardn

The Republicans made the race closer.

No they didn't.

The shift in betting odds offshore and the exchange markets indicate the opposite.

when you make a decision that causes you to go from a slightly less than 3/2 underdog to a slightly more than 2/1 underdog - you actually lessened your chances significantly.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No they didn't.

The shift in betting odds offshore and the exchange markets indicate the opposite.

when you make a decision that causes you to go from a slightly less than 3/2 underdog to a slightly more than 2/1 underdog - you actually lessened your chances significantly.

What were the odds with Romney as VP?
The Republicans made the race closer.

Exchange markets?
What does that have to do with the price of Key Lime Pie?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm going to assume you are trolling me and not serious.

Still, I'll explain odds to you in horse racing terms. This was the result of a study that had a monster sample size of over 1.7 million starters.


Odds Group: ----- Starts: ------ Wins: ------ Win %:
.10 and .49 5,232 3,279 62.7%
.50 and .99 37,832 17,810 47.1%
1.00 and 1.99 127,878 42,384 33.1%
2.00 and 2.99 160,770 38,130 23.7%
3.00 and 3.99 146,444 26,658 18.2%
4.00 and 4.99 120,926 18,133 15.0%
5.00 and 5.99 99,186 12,451 12.6%
6.00 and 6.99 86,216 9,524 11.0%
7.00 and 7.99 75,891 7,330 9.7%
8.00 and 8.99 67,300 6,018 8.9%
9.00 and 9.99 60,439 4,692 7.8%
10.0 and 10.9 53,115 3,852 7.3%
11.0 and 11.9 47,781 3,127 6.5%
12.0 and 12.9 42,650 2,601 6.1%
13.0 and 13.9 37,929 2,097 5.5%
14.0 and 14.9 34,558 1,786 5.2%
15.0 and 19.9 131,289 5,699 4.3%
20.0 and 29.9 161,552 4,922 3.0%
30.0 and 39.9 94,676 1,696 1.8%
40.0 and 49.9 60,113 839 1.4%
50.0 and 59.9 40,150 391 1.0%
60.0 and 99.9 66,946 393 0.6%
100 & Greater 15,977 40 0.3%


As you can see - even money shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 2/1 shots, 2/1 shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 3/1 shots, 3/1 shots are always going to win at a higher clip than 4/1 shots and on and on.

Ok, so let's change Obama's name to Wait A While and pretend he's a horse. Let's change McCain's name to Black Mamba and pretend he's a horse. They are going to have a match race and the betting odds will reflect a big takeout reduction.

Wait A While with jockey Joe Bravo up is the early favorite. Black Mamba with a jockey TBA is the underdog at 7/5 odds.

Ok, Now, it is being announced that Shannon Uske has been named as the jockey for Black Mamba.

Subsequently, the odds tail up, Black Mamba is 8/5 after a few hours. 9/5 the next day, and finally drifts up to 2/1 odds.

Now, did the naming of Shannon Uske to ride Black Mamba increase the chances of victory? Clearly not.

Now, if you think Black Mamba is just plain better than Wait A While regardless of jockey, you are thrilled because you've got yourself a better price.

McCain is obviously not trying to cash a bet. He took Palin because he thought she would give him the best chance to win. The offshore betting lines and exchange markets are a better overall indicator of probability than anything else.

McCain simply took a gamble and it has backfired on him. Had he been able to move from the 7/5-to-3/2 range into the even money-to-6/5 range with his VP pick - I would have called it a brilliant move on his part even though I personally don't like Palin at all.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm going to assume you are trolling me and not serious.

Still, I'll explain odds to you in horse racing terms. This was the result of a study that had a monster sample size of over 1.7 million starters.


Odds Group: ----- Starts: ------ Wins: ------ Win %:
.10 and .49 5,232 3,279 62.7%
.50 and .99 37,832 17,810 47.1%
1.00 and 1.99 127,878 42,384 33.1%
2.00 and 2.99 160,770 38,130 23.7%
3.00 and 3.99 146,444 26,658 18.2%
4.00 and 4.99 120,926 18,133 15.0%
5.00 and 5.99 99,186 12,451 12.6%
6.00 and 6.99 86,216 9,524 11.0%
7.00 and 7.99 75,891 7,330 9.7%
8.00 and 8.99 67,300 6,018 8.9%
9.00 and 9.99 60,439 4,692 7.8%
10.0 and 10.9 53,115 3,852 7.3%
11.0 and 11.9 47,781 3,127 6.5%
12.0 and 12.9 42,650 2,601 6.1%
13.0 and 13.9 37,929 2,097 5.5%
14.0 and 14.9 34,558 1,786 5.2%
15.0 and 19.9 131,289 5,699 4.3%
20.0 and 29.9 161,552 4,922 3.0%
30.0 and 39.9 94,676 1,696 1.8%
40.0 and 49.9 60,113 839 1.4%
50.0 and 59.9 40,150 391 1.0%
60.0 and 99.9 66,946 393 0.6%
100 & Greater 15,977 40 0.3%


As you can see - even money shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 2/1 shots, 2/1 shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 3/1 shots, 3/1 shots are always going to win at a higher clip than 4/1 shots and on and on.

Ok, so let's change Obama's name to Wait A While and pretend he's a horse. Let's change McCain's name to Black Mamba and pretend he's a horse. They are going to have a match race and the betting odds will reflect a big takeout reduction.

Wait A While with jockey Joe Bravo up is the early favorite. Black Mamba with a jockey TBA is the underdog at 7/5 odds.

Ok, Now, it is being announced that Shannon Uske has been named as the jockey for Black Mamba.

Subsequently, the odds tail up, Black Mamba is 8/5 after a few hours. 9/5 the next day, and finally drifts up to 2/1 odds.

Now, did the naming of Shannon Uske to ride Black Mamba increase the chances of victory? Clearly not.

Now, if you think Black Mamba is just plain better than Wait A While regardless of jockey, you are thrilled because you've got yourself a better price.

McCain is obviously not trying to cash a bet. He took Palin because he thought she would give him the best chance to win. The offshore betting lines and exchange markets are a better overall indicator of probability than anything else.

McCain simply took a gamble and it has backfired on him. Had he been able to move from the 7/5-to-3/2 range into the even money-to-6/5 range with his VP pick - I would have called it a brilliant move on his part even though I personally don't like Palin at all.

holy sh*t doug

[Mike]

So what does all this mean with regards to the odds that little Caylee is still alive?

[Cannon Shell]

I'm still stunned that people here actually watch the vice presidential debate or think it will have any bearing on the race.