mccain's vp

[GPK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No they didn't.

The shift in betting odds offshore and the exchange markets indicate the opposite.

when you make a decision that causes you to go from a slightly less than 3/2 underdog to a slightly more than 2/1 underdog - you actually lessened your chances significantly.

Doug....called me stupid and slow, but just how are offshore betting odds and exchanges markets indicative of how the American people are gonna vote come Nov?

If I could get over 2/1 that McCain/Palin will win come Nov, I'd be quite happy with it.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by GPK

Doug....called me stupid and slow, but just how are offshore betting odds and exchanges markets indicative of how the American people are gonna vote come Nov?

If I could get over 2/1 that McCain/Palin will win come Nov, I'd be quite happy with it.

Yeah, they were all over Hillary in the ESPN preseason poll...oops sorry Doug...

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm going to assume you are trolling me and not serious.

McCain is obviously not trying to cash a bet. He took Palin because he thought she would give him the best chance to win. The offshore betting lines and exchange markets are a better overall indicator of probability than anything else.

McCain simply took a gamble and it has backfired on him. Had he been able to move from the 7/5-to-3/2 range into the even money-to-6/5 range with his VP pick - I would have called it a brilliant move on his part even though I personally don't like Palin at all.

I am trolling you?
I thought I posted an opinion and you rejected it based on
betting odds which I totally understand, but you did not
prove anything about the odds with Romney, which was
the candidate I had made the comparison with.

And again, the exchange markets...?
Relevance?

I think there are a large number of white democrats that won't vote for Obama for an undisclosed reason and overlooking this reason is giving the american people the benefit of the doubt. Don't be foolish.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I think there are a large number of white democrats that won't vote for Obama for an undisclosed reason and overlooking this reason is giving the american people the benefit of the doubt. Don't be foolish.

Well, disclose this reason please

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Mike

Well, disclose this reason please

It ain't HC

and I think he's right

Originally Posted by Mike

Well, disclose this reason please

I think the word white has something to do with it.

Obama is going to get a whole lot of the "kids" voting
in record numbers.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by GPK

Doug....called me stupid and slow, but just how are offshore betting odds and exchanges markets indicative of how the American people are gonna vote come Nov?

If I could get over 2/1 that McCain/Palin will win come Nov, I'd be quite happy with it.

www.ehorsex.com

Right now you can get over $3,000 worth of action on John McCain winning the presidentcy at 2/1 odds.

They are only offering you $1,300 worth of action on Obama winning and at odds of slightly less than 1/2 favortisim.

I think McCain is sucker bait at 2/1 - I'd hold out for a bigger price if I were you.

im guessing Hillary Clinton.

HC

[GPK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

www.ehorsex.com

Right now you can get over $3,000 worth of action on John McCain winning the presidentcy at 2/1 odds.

They are only offering you $1,300 worth of action on Obama winning and at odds of slightly less than 1/2 favortisim.

I think McCain is sucker bait at 2/1 - I'd hold out for a bigger price if I were you.

Thanks for the link.

But help me out please. How are those two things indicative of how people are gonna vote? I guess Im not seeing the relevance here.

Originally Posted by GPK

Thanks for the link.

But help me out please. How are those two things indicative of how people are gonna vote? I guess Im not seeing the relevance here.

If I might.

I think he is assuming the betting public that would take on this sort of political wager will be a good indicator of how people are going to vote. I dont find this unreasonable.

I would like to learn about the exchange market theory though...

[GPK]

Originally Posted by pgardn

If I might.

I think he is assuming the betting public that would take on this sort of political wager will be a good indicator of how people are going to vote. I dont find this unreasonable.

I would like to learn about the exchange market theory though...

But what % of that money is being wagered by Americans? I would think there has to be a huge margin of error based on the amount of money coming in from overseas.

Originally Posted by GPK

But what % of that money is being wagered by Americans? I would think there has to be a huge margin of error based on the amount of money coming in from overseas.

I would agree.
But they may be betting based on polls they feel are reliable at this point in the race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by GPK

Thanks for the link.

But help me out please. How are those two things indicative of how people are gonna vote? I guess Im not seeing the relevance here.

The same as how the odds of a horse race are indicative of how the horses will finish.

The same as how the odds on a boxing match are indicative of how the outcome of the fight will be.

The same as how the money line of a football game is indicative of who will win the game.

Why exactly did the betting go the way it has since Palin was named McCain's VP choice? How the hell would I know. However, people who think that she has made this a much tighter race are out of their mind. That much is clear.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I would like to learn about the exchange market theory though...

http://www.pollingreport.com/lvw_bet.htm

[GPK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The same as how the odds of a horse race are indicative of how the horses will finish.

The same as how the odds on a boxing match are indicative of how the outcome of the fight will be.

The same as how the money line of a football game is indicative of who will win the game.

Why exactly did the betting go the way it has since Palin was named McCain's VP choice? How the hell would I know. However, people who think that she has made this a much tighter race are out of their mind. That much is clear.

Im not trying to be a pain in the ass...but don't you think its harder to put faith in those type odds when the people that will be doing the voting (american citizens) have their money in the same "pool" as everyone else world? I could see if the offshore betting site had a seperate pool for american citizens and based their odds upon that. Those odds are reflective of how people worldwide feel who will win. Fortunately for us, people throughout the world don't vote to determine our president.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why exactly did the betting go the way it has since Palin was named McCain's VP choice? How the hell would I know. However, people who think that she has made this a much tighter race are out of their mind. That much is clear.

You dont know this at all.

Again, you dont have the odds if McCain chose Romney.
Is it possible McCain would take a dive no matter who he chose?
I say hell yes its possible.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

http://www.pollingreport.com/lvw_bet.htm

Very interesting.
And this is what I was basically thinking.
Imo they are giving way too much credit to those people have lots of money actually
understanding what they are doing with it. They are gambling like any other market,
only this type of gambling is very volatile and might be ridden with thrill seekers.

I thought you were typing about the exchange rate of the dollar or something
on the other topic.
My bad.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by GPK

Im not trying to be a pain in the ass...but don't you think its harder to put faith in those type odds when the people that will be doing the voting (american citizens) have their money in the same "pool" as everyone else world? I could see if the offshore betting site had a seperate pool for american citizens and based their odds upon that. Those odds are reflective of how people worldwide feel who will win. Fortunately for us, people throughout the world don't vote to determine our president.

I would expect the vast majority of the money wagered is being done so by Americans.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Again, you dont have the odds if McCain chose Romney.
Is it possible McCain would take a dive no matter who he chose?
I say hell yes its possible.

No, in my opinion it's not possible.

Had McCain selected Romney - as expected - I don't think the market and betting lines would have moved a penny.

The markets and lines have been actively trending towards Obama since the morning it was announced McCain took Palin.

What you don't know is why such a move.

Most likely it's just a sustained betting overreaction to an unexpected and seemingly bad choice.

If it keeps moving and moving and moving - at that point you would start to smell a rat.

Palin went to the University of Idaho in the 80's... perhaps there are very compromising pictures of her that were laying around in someone's basement that are on the verge of being made public.

There are rumors that her supposed 5th kid was really her 17-year-old daughters kid. The daughter was taken out of school for several months with mono while Palin announced she was 7 months pregnant despite not showing. She took an 8 hour flight to Alaska after saying her water broke. Maybe there is something to the rumor.

There are reports that someone with the Obama team who does opposition research went through the archives of the Valley Frontiersman, Palin's hometown newspaper, and were the first ones to do so - meaning no one with McCain did. It might be possible they found something very compromising and are holding it.

She is under investigation in Alaska for abuse of power. Perhaps there is more to that story.