9/18: Belmont (4th-9th)

[Kasept]

Left irksome Peleliu off the P4 ticket opener Wednesday, while running 2nd-3rd-4th-5th. That came ahead of three straight on top winners, and while the Quad was just $104.50+ ($1), I was still upset that I made the wrong call regarding the wire job frontrunner. Upon second glance, the first off the claim Persaud grey was more dangerous as nearly lone speed than perceived.

The day wasn't lost though, as I was able to offer up a juicy bingo in the feature when "Most Likely" Blitzen Too and "Next Best" Absolute Heaven did their job 1-2 and 45-1 "Exotics Use" Western Slang morphed the triple into a $214.50 score for each dollar ($429.00 for $2). Hope you did OK...

Absolutely terrific Thursday card at Belmont... Deep and challenging fields with superior horseflesh and serious race conditions including 3 ALW's, a state bred turf sprint stake, MSW lawn route and a mind-numbingly deep $25k/N3L at 1 mile on the main. Should be fun!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


Intriguing maiden event, and among those being left out are Baffert's Indian Blessing's brother (#3 Spaniard) moving to lawn, and 15-1 Hennig firster (#5 Awesome Mich) whose dam hit '02 Schylerville board and got good on turf at 4..

4th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Indy World 12-1: Seewald clever; colt OK for lawn.. 11th
Most Likely: #1e Pletcher entry 2-1: More/Ready firster + solid debuting barnmate.. 2nd/7th
Next Best: #8 Pynaformer 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #11 Prince of Wealth 12-1 10th


5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Tricky read here with ML fave #2 Cool Tales (5-2) a bit of a mystery. J. Jerkens wheels back in a week and jumps a condition with mud and turf flops in rear view mirror off break. Always gets bet and looks tough to embrace having faced mediocrities even in his good races..

Most Likely: #4 Defrereoftheheart 9-2 WON ($15.60)
Best Value: #1a (POE) Flash of Victory 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 No More Green 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Ship's Piano 4-1 7th

$1 Exacta (4-1) Paid $48.00
$1 Trifecta (4-1-5) Paid $156.00


6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #5 Ballast 5-1

Most Likely: #3 Al Basha 7-2: Wasn't 100% for West Point try.. WON ($8.30)
Best Value: #1 Whata Ya Mean 15-1: Tired in Travers Day comebacker.. 7th
Next Best: #10 Pick Six 8-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Gran Estreno 30-1 3rd (at 35-1!)


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Success Fee 7-2 WON ($9.50)
Most Likely: #9 Coastal Drive 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Borrowing Limit 3-1 7th
Super Add: #5 See More Spirit 30-1 4th

$1 Pick 3 (4/3/1) Paid $177.75


8th: The Jack Better Be Right, NYB-3yo F, 6f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #3 LOST WITHOUT YOU 5-1 WON-DQ'd to 2nd
Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 3-1 2nd, put up to WIN
Next Best: #6 Remarkable Remy 7-2 3rd

$1 Exacta (1-3) Paid $8.10
$1 Trifecta (1-3-6) Paid $17.70
$1 Pick 3 (3-1-1) 3 Correct Paid $53.25


9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Fanstastic, wide open ALW to end a real day of racing..

Most Likely: #3 Baletti 3-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Baronial 15-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Mr. Sidney 9-2 WON ($7.80)
Super Add: #8 Valtrus 8-1 4th; #5 Rogue Victory 6-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 1-6-9
8: 1-3
9: 1-3-5-7-8-11

2x3x2x6 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (3/1/1,4,7/7,9,13) Paid $367.00


Good luck!
Steve

[swedejxn]

LMAO.... I was hoping to get some guidance on the 9th.... instead I find the form peppered with bird shot.... but I came up with same 5 or 6....lol

[swedejxn]

11-1-7-3 in race 9

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Kasept

8th: The Jack Better Be Right, NYB-3yo F, 6f-IT (DD)

Best Value: #3 LOST WITHOUT YOU 5-1
Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 3-1
Next Best: #6 Remarkable Remy 7-2

Two absolutely perfect trips in a row and now she steps up in class. She's up against it.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Two absolutely perfect trips in a row and now she steps up in class. She's up against it.

Being a stalker helps earn those perfect trips. Does a horse need to change its' running style to gain "respect"?

The scratch of Canadian Ballet changes the pace scenario here quite a bit, but I'm quite content to anticipate successful runs from horses like Lost Without You regularly.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Being a stalker helps earn those perfect trips. Does a horse need to change its' running style to gain "respect"?

The scratch of Canadian Ballet changes the pace scenario here quite a bit, but I'm quite content to anticipate successful runs from horses like Lost Without You regularly.

The last two class jumps off layoffs of this duration have seen the LWY move forward by 5 TGH points winning both as the comp. became tougher Today's setup implies that there is a 60% chance she will either match her top or move forward even further, either of which will win this race. Whether it's been Hill, Prado or today JR it doesn't matter the horse should win this race and is probably the best bet on the card and worthy of a single in the multi's....

[docicu3]

And of course Matt,,,,errrr Hooves has the exacta for the 4th from his free selections on his page. Should have felt the ghost of Sambino in the room with this last race....Nice Job matt

[docicu3]

Nice call on the triple in the 5th Steve....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Nice call on the triple in the 5th Steve....

Thx DD..

Always feels particularly good getting it right when excluding a horse (Cool Tales) you find suspect as chalk.

[declansharbor]

My horizontal plays for the day:

P4: 1,3,4,10 / 1,6,9 / 3,6 / 35

P3's starting in R7:

1,3,7,9 / 1,6 / 3,5 and 1,4,9 / 3,6 / 3,5,6,8,10,11 and 1,3,6,7,9 / 1,3,6 / 5

$118 total...R9 vertical plays to come.

GL all!!

[TitanSooner]

steve on fire!

[declansharbor]

Taking a shot with the balance in my account, so hopefully, I hit these or the P3's or else my weekend wagers will be VERY limited. Will be at Pha for The Cottilion with a few buddies.

$1 tri key 5 in all 3 spots with 1,3,8,10 and key again with 3,7,11
$4 tri 3,5 with 3,5 with 8,10,11
$5 ex box 5 with 3,8
$5 ex box 1,5
$14 to WIN on 5

$122 total, which leaves my account bone dry @ .40 cents. Need a winner, winner, chicken dinner!!

GL all!!

[fpsoxfan]

Wow. Nice job by Castellano riding the #10 and the #6.

[fpsoxfan]

The correct call.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Taking a shot with the balance in my account, so hopefully, I hit these or the P3's or else my weekend wagers will be VERY limited. Will be at Pha for The Cottilion with a few buddies.

$1 tri key 5 in all 3 spots with 1,3,8,10 and key again with 3,7,11
$4 tri 3,5 with 3,5 with 8,10,11
$5 ex box 5 with 3,8
$5 ex box 1,5
$14 to WIN on 5

$122 total, which leaves my account bone dry @ .40 cents. Need a winner, winner, chicken dinner!!

GL all!!

And that, folks, is how you piss away money!! Congrats to anyone who had the triple or the super, for they were rewarded with a nice payoff.

Nice job on the P4 Steve!

[fpsoxfan]

Nice job with the Pick-4 Steve!

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

The correct call.

Nice to see you back any plans for B.C. party? only a few weeks away.

P.S. the Chiefs are awful!

and so are the Seahawks !

[booner]

Good job today Steve. Not a bad Pick 4!

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

Nice to see you back any plans for B.C. party? only a few weeks away.

P.S. the "Chiefs" are awful!

and so are the Seahawks!

It's kind of funny...I got knocked out of two pools in two weeks. It was dumb for me to pick the stinking Chiefs, but after watching Oakland the week before I thought they'd be a sure winner. Oh well! Yes, BC party at Tom's again this year.......................JUST Bring the EARPLUGS because you know who will be there.

[ateamstupid]

Nice work w/the P4 SLB.