10/24 (R7): BC Ladies Classic (Final)

[Round Pen]

Originally Posted by Scav

If you believe that dirt numbers transfer over. It is my opinion that synethic numbers are about 2 pts slower then dirt, and that is what I am using when handicapping.

Good Point but this is SA there is not another track in the country that has this type of Suface(Pro Ride). SO I am willing to make a stand Againt Zenyatta being she will be in the 3/5 range.

Right now I am leaning towards Cocoa Beach at 8-1ML that is a square price on a filly who we don't know how good she could be. I love these fillies that come From South America (although she made a trip to Dubai First)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Zenyatta at 3/5
Hystericalady at 15/1, third longest shot in the field.

I love Hystericalady, made an absolute monster bet on her in last year's BC, but she's already proven to be not the same on synthetics.

She's the test case for synthetics vs. real dirt

[SniperSB23]

Carriage Trail over Zenyatta with Hystericalady third and a superfecta moneymaking Santa Teresita running fourth.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Carriage Trail over Zenyatta with Hystericalady third and a superfecta moneymaking Santa Teresita running fourth.

Really? You're buying the hype on this one?

[letswastemoney]

I just looked over this field. This is a good group of fillies and mares!!! Just exactly who has Zenyatta beat anyway? Ginger Punch and Hystericalady? Is it possible Ginger Punch just had an off day that day? Hystericalady can't win on synth....

but can Music Note? can Cocoa Beach? Can Carriage Trail transfer her Keeneland form to Santa Anita?

Zenyatta beat Model by just one length. Carriage Trail beat her by more than 7. Hmmmm

So many questions!!

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Zenyatta beat Model by just one length. Carriage Trail beat her by more than 7. Hmmmm

So many questions!!

Its not that she beat model by a length its how she beat her, with effortless ease. It was hard to win anything by open lengths at del mar routing this past year.

I am concerned that CT is a Kee freak, and this surface is much different then Keeneland. I think Music Note or Cocoa Beach is a much better play in this spot.

[pgiaco]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Zenyatta at 3/5
Hystericalady at 15/1, third longest shot in the field.

Hystericalady on synthetic at any price is a toss for me.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by pgiaco

Hystericalady on synthetic at any price is a toss for me.

She was a toss last year from multiple people because of post and some other BS.

Toss at your own pearl, while her BEST races were on dirt, he synethics are HALF as bad as people are making them out to be

[Scav]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I bet her last year Scavs so I understand what you are saying. And maybe her races on synthetic aren't as bad as people are making it, but she is a completely different horse on dirt. I can see her running second, but how can she win this race?

I don't think she can, just saying, she can fill the exacta/trifecta.

I am a huge Zenyatta fan, but I am starting to question her a little bit based on who she has faced.

Her Oaklawn race was real big, but she was cycling to that effort and Ginger Punch obviously wasn't on her game that day, and I think Ginger Punch likes the synethics, she ran a top on the times that she went to them (at Keeneland)...I don't really have many opinions yet, using the plane ride to sort out everything...

The one thing I am struggling with right now is the Woodbine shippers, because there are a couple that absolutely lay over their fields, figure-wise.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

I don't think she can, just saying, she can fill the exacta/trifecta.
I am a huge Zenyatta fan, but I am starting to question her a little bit based on who she has faced.

Her Oaklawn race was real big, but she was cycling to that effort and Ginger Punch obviously wasn't on her game that day, and I think Ginger Punch likes the synethics, she ran a top on the times that she went to them (at Keeneland)...I don't really have many opinions yet, using the plane ride to sort out everything...

The one thing I am struggling with right now is the Woodbine shippers, because there are a couple that absolutely lay over their fields, figure-wise.

I like Hystericalady a lot, you know that, she CANNOT win this race on the synthetic.


2nd, DO NOT trust Woodbine figures. they are consistently too high, like Delaware- I've been fooled too many times by shippers to Saratoga, Churchill, or the BC.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

I like Hystericalady a lot, you know that, she CANNOT win this race on the synthetic.


2nd, DO NOT trust Woodbine figures. they are consistently too high, like Delaware- I've been fooled too many times by shippers to Saratoga, Churchill, or the BC.

That is what I thought, wasn't 100% sure on it though

Friday there isn't much that is 'interesting' from what I can tell. I am going to use it to form opinions for Saturday, which I see multiple things that I am interested in.

I don't have that 'can't miss' play that I am salivating over. Last year it was Shamiden to run 1-2, don't have that this year.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

That is what I thought, wasn't 100% sure on it though

Friday there isn't much that is 'interesting' from what I can tell. I am going to use it to form opinions for Saturday, which I see multiple things that I am interested in.
I don't have that 'can't miss' play that I am salivating over. Last year it was Shamiden to run 1-2, don't have that this year.

Agree completely on this.

More rooting interests than gambling opinions, although Forever Together will get a bet from me for sure. Besides that, maybe a few fliers.

Have fun out there dude, don't lose your shirt.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Agree completely on this.

More rooting interests than gambling opinions, although Forever Together will get a bet from me for sure. Besides that, maybe a few fliers.

Have fun out there dude, don't lose your shirt.

Lot of weight on Forever Together

Honestly, I like the new setup, I can never figure out fillies/mares and them having their own day helps me, and don't ask me why that is, it is just one of those things, can't figure out woman

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

Lot of weight on Forever Together

Honestly, I like the new setup, I can never figure out fillies/mares and them having their own day helps me, and don't ask me why that is, it is just one of those things, can't figure out woman

LOL

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

LOL

Last night, I got dragged to Nick and Norah's whatever right after shelling out for an unexpected dinner, it was painful, but we were the only people IN THE THEATRE.

Can I get a GUS JOHNSON CALL please.... AAAAAAAHAAAAAAA!!!

[letswastemoney]

If you like Hystericalady, Santa Teresita finished right with her last time and will be twice the odds. I think Santa Teresita could hit the board here.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Really? You're buying the hype on this one?

More not buying Zenyatta as a monster at 9 furlongs and think every other horse in the field with any quality will hate the surface. Carriage Trial has shown form on a synthetic and I like her to be right in the photo with Zenyatta at the end, hopefully on top for the much better payout.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

If you like Hystericalady, Santa Teresita finished right with her last time and will be twice the odds. I think Santa Teresita could hit the board here.

I like her a lot at the bottom of the tri/super at a price. Would love to bet her against Music Note head to head.

[King Glorious]

I can understand playing against her in mutuals but I can't see any logical handicapping angle that would suggest going against Zenyatta as win selection. She gets my vote to win over Music Note with Ginger Punch third and Carriage Trail fourth.

[miraja2]

Zenyatta is of course the most likely winner here, but I don't think any of her races were THAT much better than Carriage Trail's Spinster. Perhaps I am overrating her race that day, but it REALLY impressed me.

I will probably only play this race at the end of a Pick-3.
I am going to single Stardom Bound in the Juvy fillies, go deep in the very tough F&M Turf, and use Zenyatta and Carriage Trail here. I think one of thse two is your winner.