Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pba1817

With that slow pace(which was a given when one read the PP's), why not wait a little longer, save ground, and make a run for the wire in the stretch??

Where are they teaching this approach?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Where are they teaching this approach?

blame the jock university?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

This is not the normal turf course we have here. It's been manipulated for this week.

I think NowNowNow's performance in the 11th will go a long way towards confirming or refuting this claim. He was best last out but had ZERO chance the way the course was playing.

[sumitas]

Seemed like the finishers were all keying on Curlin . Hard to win when you are marked like that. But that's the clarity of hind sight .

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Where are they teaching this approach?

This is the approach Albarado should have taken instead of riding the race like the win was a formality and the only thing in question was how many he was going be ahead by when he crossed the wire.

I do not know where they teach it, but apparently the Euro's are subscribing to it.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Horrible ride, Albarado was out rode by smarter and better jockeys all three in which finished in front of him. It was not the surface either, it was poor decision making and a awful judge of pace.

You're kidding right? The horse who finished just ahead (Tiago) of him hadn't finished within 5 lengths of him in any of 4 starts on dirt. Are you telling me the form magically reversed itself?

With that slow pace(which was a given when one read the PP's), why not wait a little longer, save ground, and make a run for the wire in the stretch??

The horse hasn't come from between horses in 2 years. Good strategy. Let's take the biggest race of the year and change tactics. Not one dirt (ha ha)race was one on the inside paths.
IMO... He rode the horse like the win was a guarantee and the only thing that was of concern was by how many lengths were to be between him and the field.

He rode the race exactly as he had every others on the horse. If you look at the race it bears a striking resemblance to the Man O'War, where he hung late on...............TURF.

To the thread topic, Curlin was/is not the best in 25 years. I would not have thought so if he had won this race by 32 lengths. This field was very questionable, with no real legit G1 winners other than the Euros.

And to use the thread starter's example, Easy Goer beat It's Acedemic, Clevor Trevor and DeRoche.

[Pedigree Ann]

I took a some flak from a certain party for the posting below (on the "discuss the 3 Euros thread"), especially the part about superior milers being able to stretch out. I had watched this horse race on British TV and in person at Newmarket and thought I had something to share. Now may I please gloat a little in his general direction?<that's a paraphrase of a famous line in Monty Python and the Holy Grail>

I'd also like to point out that on the same thread Linny took up the case for Conduit, while pointing out that the better US turf runners include many who had been below the first rank over in Europe. Well done, Linny.

"Raven's Pass is one tough customer; he doesn't go under without a fight. His losses, apart from those at the straight track at Newmarket, are none of them over 1.5 lengths. He was very good early at 2, and was beaten only a head by champion 2yo and subsequent Derby winner New Approach in the Dewhurst S(G1), which is Britain's championship event for 2yos. He went a long stretch over the spring and summer without a win (behind Henry 3 times), but seemed to have taken heart from his G3 win in August to finally peg back Henry in the QEII and may be maturing later than that one. His half-brother Gigawatt certainly seems to have gone through a 'dead zone' at three after having been a SW at 2 before having his best years as an older horse; he was a dirt horse AND a turf horse.

"The major knock against Raven's Pass is that he has never run at a distance beyond 8f. Sire Elusive Quality and half-bro Gigawatt were also milers, so one must wonder about his effectiveness at 10f. But his quality is quite high - they have a darned good group of 3yos in Europe this year - which can carry milers another couple furlongs beyond their optimum trip. And, oh yes, Raven's Pass has also won on a left-handed course."

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by pba1817

IMO... He rode the horse like the win was a guarantee and the only thing that was of concern was by how many lengths were to be between him and the field.

I agree with this. I think he consistently moves early on this horse. He's gotten away with it against Past the Point and Wanderin Boy and thought he could do the same today.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pba1817

This is the approach Albarado should have taken instead of riding the race like the win was a formality and the only thing in question was how many he was going be ahead by when he crossed the wire.

I do not know where they teach it, but apparently the Euro's are subscribing to it.

This is America, Ace. Drafting behind horses is considered getting a POOR TRIP here. Wide, no cover, PREMATURE moves are the norm. This is the land of BIASES. Take the lead on a dirt track and you're typically home. Curlin, the best horse in the land, is outkicked by a couple of milers, as his rider is in a hurry to make the lead by the turn. Great way to go down.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Revidere

And to use the thread starter's example, Easy Goer beat It's Acedemic, Clevor Trevor and DeRoche.

I never said go to the inside, but not go 7-8 wide around the entire turn. The horses who passed him(good, bad, otherwise) employed this tactic.

It worked for 3 of them right?

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

This is America, Ace. Drafting behind horses is considered getting a POOR TRIP here. Wide, no cover, PREMATURE moves are the norm. This is the land of BIASES. Take the lead on a dirt track and you're typically home. Curlin, the best horse in the land is outkicked by a couple of milers, as his rider is in a hurry to make the lead by the turn. Great way to go down.

I thought this was the Socialist Republic of Obamaland... my bad.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pba1817

I thought this was the Socialist Republic of Obamaland... my bad.

Socialist IFF the present administration was buying up banks (and other businesses). They'd certainly know.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree with this. I think he consistently moves early on this horse. He's gotten away with it against Past the Point and Wanderin Boy and thought he could do the same today.

by the same token, they said earlier in the show that it takes longer to catch horses on the awt's. maybe that was his thinking as well?
hard to say. he rode like he had the best horse, and all year, he has had the best horse.
too bad he's going out like this. curlin hadn't lost on dirt since the haskell. er, real dirt.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Has Casino Drive finished yet?

I just saw him with his taillights in reverse going west on the 210 freeway headed to Dubai via LAX.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Danzig

by the same token, they said earlier in the show that it takes longer to catch horses on the awt's. maybe that was his thinking as well?
hard to say. he rode like he had the best horse, and all year, he has had the best horse.
too bad he's going out like this. curlin hadn't lost on dirt since the haskell. er, real dirt.

He made the move that won most of the BC "dirt" races this year. Just wasnt good enough. Losing to Ravens Pass isnt something to be ashamed of. Getting outfinished for third by Tiago is. The last 2 races he won by small margins over weak horses were chalked up to his only doing what he had to do to win. I still believe he just isnt as great as his fans believe him to be and has been fortunate to run in the era of the worst older horses, probably ever. He is a very good horse but not in the top 50 of all time and certainly not the best of the last 25 years. Clever Trevor, by the way, would be a full fledged star nowadays.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Danzig

by the same token, they said earlier in the show that it takes longer to catch horses on the awt's. maybe that was his thinking as well?
hard to say. he rode like he had the best horse, and all year, he has had the best horse.
too bad he's going out like this. curlin hadn't lost on dirt since the haskell. er, real dirt.

And if you believe what "they" say on TV all the time, you aren't very smart. You know better than that!!

It was a bad ride, plain and simple. He sorely misjudged the pace and was out finished by 3 horses, not 1, but 3!!! Getting out finished by 1 would have been acceptable, simply a better horse, but to be out finished by 3 and Tiago as one of them.... not good at all.

[pba1817]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He made the move that won most of the BC "dirt" races this year. Just wasnt good enough. Losing to Ravens Pass isnt something to be ashamed of. Getting outfinished for third by Tiago is. The last 2 races he won by small margins over weak horses were chalked up to his only doing what he had to do to win. I still believe he just isnt as great as his fans believe him to be and has been fortunate to run in the era of the worst older horses, probably ever. He is a very good horse but not in the top 50 of all time and certainly not the best of the last 25 years. Clever Trevor, by the way, would be a full fledged star nowadays.

Agreed.

[pba1817]

Figjam

[Stall Mucker]

Originally Posted by SilverRP

just curious, what size of a ticket did he use

If you're talking about Crist?? Capital OTB gave him a $5000 bankroll to play the pic-6. Don't know how many people qualified but, during the week there were 200+ people that qualified. You had to be present at Teletheater to win.

[AeWingnut]

I had the 1st two legs of the late pick 4
partly because I listened to you

no comment on the rest of the ticket but I just wanted to say you provided me with Raven's Pass.

Thanks for the insight