3/14: AQU; GP; TAM; Magna 5; FG; Rebel; SA

[Kasept]

Simply put, I can't recall a day developing and unfolding with such widespread invitation to wagering action... Plan carefully and budget wisely. It will be a special day for many players. Don't get down if things go against you early. There's too many great chances to win Saturday to lose focus.


AQUEDUCT


5th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Won Great Classic 9-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Temore 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1e Baker entry 10-1 6th


6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Herald Square 12-1 4th
Most Likely: #3 Bebob 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Greenspirit 3-1 WON
Exotics Use: #1 Alexandros 12-1 2nd


7th: NYB-MSW, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Pocket Cowboys 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Big Gavel 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Titletown Tiger 6-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Brock N Roll 20-1 6th


8th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Miller's Mint 4-1 WON
Best Value: #6 B D's Phoenix 8-1 7th
Next Best: #2 SCR
Super Add: #3 Honour Above Self 10-1 3rd


9th: 17th Cicada (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #5 Love That Dance 5-1 6th
Most Likely: #1 Dream Play 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Daily Star 10-1 4th


10th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Federal Deposit 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #11 Flo's Honor 7-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Clonen 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Tony the Terio 6-1 6th


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-3
6: 1-2-3-7
7: 2-6
8: 6-11
9: 1-2-5
10: 8

2x4x2x2x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-6
8: 2-3-6-11
9: 1-2-5
10: 2-8-11

3x4x3x2 = $72



GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


8th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Greatbillsoffire 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Book Says Yes 8-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Trusting Heart 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Jersey Town 10-1 WON


9th: Palm Beach (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stormallory 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 El Crespo 6-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Duke of Homberg 2-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lime Rickey 4-1 2nd


10th: Gulfstream Park H. (Gr. II), 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Smooth Air 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Cool Coal Man 2-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Finallymadeit 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Bribon 5-2 4th


11th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Crazy deep nightcap and note that virtually ANY AND ALL of the AE's would be useable should they drew in..

Most Likely: #8 Chapin Beach 5-1 6th
Best Value: #2 Dr. Smarty Jack 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Reb 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Tizzy 7-2 7th


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-4-8
9: 2-4-5-7
10: 1-4-5-6 $1 P3 Paid $363.10
11: 2-5-8

4x4x4x3 = 192 x .50 = $96



MAGNA 5


POST-SCRATCHES


A) LRL 9th: The Conniver, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #6 Puskita 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Met a Miner 7-2 7th
Best Value: #9 My Little Pretty 20-1 4th
Super Add: #5 All Giving 3-1 2nd


B) SA 4th: 72nd San Felipe (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f

Note that Racing Sec. Rick Hammerle believes Kelly Leak is DOUBTFUL and Feisty Suances 2nd is a POSSIBLE SCRATCH..

Most Likely: #2 Pioneerof the Nile 2-5 WON
Best Value: #7 New Bay 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Shafted 8-1 5th


C) GP 9th: Palm Beach (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f-T

Most Likely: #2 Stormallory 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 El Crespo 6-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Duke of Homberg 2-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lime Rickey 4-1 2nd


D) GG 4th: MSW, 3yo, 6f

Most Likely: #3 Undeniable Truth 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Kalookan Ghost 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Kings Humor 5-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Carbonite 9-2 WON


E) SA 5th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-DHT

Most Likely: #12 Billy Allen 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Prince Atlantis 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Kewen 9-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Street Lights 6-1 12th


<$300/<$150/<$75 Magna 5 Plays:

A: 4-5-6-9
B: 2
C: 2-7 [4-5]
D: 3-5 [1-6]
E: 4-9-10-12

4x1x4x4x4 = $284
4x1x2x4x4 = $128
4x1x2x2x4 = $64



TAMPA BAY DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


9th: 26th Florida Oaks (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Rock Candy 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #6 Don't Forget Gil 9-5 WON
Exotics Use: #4 Ameribelle 3-1 2nd


10th: 11th Hillsborough (Gr. III), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Backseat Rhythm 3-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Mushka 8-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Ballymore Lady 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Communique 4-1 10th


11th: 29th Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Musket Man 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #4 Hello Broadway 3-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Warrior's Reward 12-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Bear's Rocket 8-1 6th


12th: 5th Turf Dash, 3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 2-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Blind River Fox 15-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Fort Prado 5-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Castles in the Sky 6-1 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 2-3-6
10: 3-6-7
11: 2-4
12: 2-3-4-6

3x3x2x4 = $72 $1 P4 (3/6-7/9-2-3) Paid $430.10 (x 2 = $860.20)



FAIR GROUNDS


POST-SCRATCHES

Note that rain appears impossible to avoid in New Orleans today with Sloppy/Yielding reported now..

5th: Bienville, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (.50 P5, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Classify 5-2 4th
Best Value: #9 Coy Cat 8-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Lady Chace 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Taletobetold 4-1 5th


6th: FG Oaks (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #3 RACHEL ALEXANDRA 4-5 WON
Next Best: #2 Four Gifts 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Flying Spur 12-12nd
Super Add: #1 Our Dahlia 10-1 3rd


7th: New Orleans H. (Gr. II), 4+, 9f (P6, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Honest Man 3-1 8th
Best Value: #3 Secret Getaway 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Dry Martini 6-1 4th
Super Add: Good and Lucky 8-1 11th


8th: Muniz Memorial H. (Gr. II), 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: #13 Proudinsky (3-1) and the #1 Frostad entry (6-1) won't appreciate softer footing...

Most Likely: #6 Soldier's Dancer 7-2 4th
Best Value: #10 Nownownow 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Corrupt 10-1 14th
Exotics Use: #4 Golden Yank 10-1 9th
Super Add: #9 El Caballo 20-1 2nd


9th: Louisiana Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, Superfecta)

Will protect favorites in the multi-race wagers but go against within the race; Grab the overlay of your choice..

Best Value: #1 Free Country 12-1 9th
Most Likely: #5 Flying Pegasus 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Terrain 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Uno Mas 12-1 7th


<$100 .50 P5 Play/<$50 P4 Play:

5: 4-5-7-9
----------
6: 3
7: 2-3-10
8: 4-6-10 (8-9-12)
9: 1-3-5-6-9

P5: 4x1x3x3x5 = 190 x .50 = $95
P4: 1x3x6x5 = 90 x .50 = $45


10th: Kenner, 3+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Kodiak Kowboy 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Sok Sok 9-2 WON
Next Best: #2 Ikigai 7-2 8th
Super Add: #3 Greeley's Conquest 6-1 6th


11th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Next Best: #6 SCR
Best Value: #10 Budget 8-1
Super Add: #1 SCR

OFF THE TURF: 13-14-10/WON


12th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #5 SCR
Best Value: #6 SCR
Next Best: #8 Pacific Tsunami 9-2
Super Add: #11 Proteus 12-1

OFF THE TURF: 13/WON-8-3-9


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-3-5-6-9
10: 1-7
11: 1/SCR-3/SCR-6/SCR-9-10
12: 5/SCR-6/SCR-8

5x2x5x3 = 150 x .5- = $75


<$75 P4 Play (With R11-12 OFF THE TURF Selections ):

9: 1-3-5-6-9
10: 1-7
11: 10-13-14
12: 3-8-9-13

5x2x3x4 = 120 x .50 = $60 $1 P4 Paid $410.10



OAKLAWN PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


10th: 49th Rebel (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f

Most Likely: #1 Old Fashioned 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 His Greatness 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Captain Cherokee 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Hamazing Destiny 5-1 8th



SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-DHT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #12 Billy Allen 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Prince Atlantis 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Kewen 9-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Street Lights 6-1 12th


6th: CLM, 4yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Deep Pockets 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Quityerbellyaching 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 High Intellect 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Roar of Eagles 9-2 4th


7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-DHT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Market at Midday 5-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Favoloso 8-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Silent Stalk 7-2 WON
Super Add: #5 Magic Roberta 9-2 2nd


8th: 72nd Santa Margarita (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Life is Sweet 7-5 WON
Best Value: #7 Model 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Santa Terasita 7-2 2nd


9th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Wild Diplomat 9-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Pearl Fisher 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Cavanal 6-1 11th
Super Add: #7 Trumpet Player Jay 7-2 6th


10th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 5.5f (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 So Pink 7-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Misstrailcityzone 12-1
Next Best: #2 I Swear 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Ivy by the Shore 5-2 2nd
High 5 Play: #1 Telatrish 8-1


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-4-9-10-12
6: 1-2-4-6-8
7: 4
8: 2
9: 5-9
10: 5-9

5x5x1x1x2x2 = 100 x $2. = $200


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4
8: 2-6-7
9: 3-5-7-9
10: 5-9

3x3x4x2 = $72 $1 P4 Paid $152.20


Good luck!
Steve

[ironprospect]

Aqueduct post 2:54

5th $2 Pick-6 $40 $30,000 carry

2 3

3 4 5 6 7

3

2 11

1

8

Magna LP 9th $1 Pick 5 $96 $136 $218,000 carry

6 7

2

2 5 6 7

2 3 5 6

1 9 12

Santa Anita 5th $2 Pick 6 $192 $328 $378,000 carry

1 9 12

6 8

4 10

2 6

7 9

3 9

[3kings]

Steve,
The last leg of the M5 is brutal. I missed the show yesterday, did any of the guests have any particular insights? I'm four deep right now and the only horse we have in agreement is the 9.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Steve,
The last leg of the M5 is brutal. I missed the show yesterday, did any of the guests have any particular insights? I'm four deep right now and the only horse we have in agreement is the 9.

Hammerle likes the elder, experienced runners. He started with Billy Allen. Ron Anderson, G. Gomez' agent, said he thought it was totally wide open. Forwardly placed runners continue to do well coming down the hill as Brad Free highlighted last week...

[Stickhorse]

Wow Steve...... just stopped in, to take a break from prepping for my fantasy baseball draft, to take a look around.

You are amazing!

'Capping from sea to shining sea. Looks like at least 31 races on your plate. Sadly this is one of the few Saturdays I'm out of action with my baseball commitment. Well I will have my laptop with me and should be able to get on Twin Spires TV for some of the big ones.

Hit a homer buddy!

[MaTH716]

Wow Steve just amazing,
but what time could we expect the Los Al picks?

[gales0678]

Musket Man gotta keep the faith with Derek Ryan , look for a bouce back today

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm shocked that Steve picked Smooth Air.

I thought there was a Grade 1 with his name on it.....and being that this was merely a Grade 2 I just assumed it was a prep.

[Darrrr7]

Steve,


I think your pick 6 ticket at Santa Anita is $400.00 5x5x2x1x2x2=200X2 =$400.00

[CSC]

I love Steve's picks in the LA Derby, an abundance of alternatives here to the favorites.

[Scav]

Word is only 45 minutes of light rain in the NOLA area, suppose to be on/off rest of the day, possibly dodged a bullet as they should be on the turf

[herkhorse]

What a great day. Off to Gulfstream to enjoy the action.

Magna 5 play: (throwing in some bombs that probably have no shot)

4-5-6-7-8/2-7/1-4-5/3-6/3-9

SA pic 6:

3-5-9/6-7/2-4/2/5/3-9
6-12/6/4/2/5/3-9
5-9/6/3-8/2/5/3-9
5-9/6/4/4-6/5/3-9
5-9/6/4/2/9-10/3-9
5-9/6/4/2/5/5-10

Good Luck today!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Darrrr7

Steve,


I think your pick 6 ticket at Santa Anita is $400.00 5x5x2x1x2x2=200X2 =$400.00

Thx Darrrr. Had intended 2nd single but didn't adjust. Fixed now. 5x5x1x1x2x2.

[ateamstupid]

Steve, it's probably a moot point but I disagree that soft ground moves Proudinsky down. He won last year's Muniz over yielding turf and German horses often are used to boggy courses. I think he runs well in California despite the surface, not because of it. With that said, I don't want any part of him from the 14-hole.

[Kasept]

AQU SCR'S:

8TH: 2 Mr. Shortcake Early

10TH: 3 Ten Carrot Nikki Early

[Kasept]

Gulfstream -- Saturday, March 14, 2009

Track: Fast Turf: Firm Rail: 84 Feet

Race 2:
Jockey Change #2 Jose Rivera II

Race 3: Scratch #5

Race 4: Scratch #4
Jockey Change #10 TBA
Overweights: 1A-+4 #2 +1 #5-+2 #8-+1 #11-+1

Race 5: Scratch #3
Overweights: #8 -+1

Race 6: Scratch #1A (POE)

Race 7: Scratch #2 #4 #7

Race 8: Scratch #5 #14 #15

Race 9: Scratch #6
Overweights: #1 -+2 #3 -+2 #4 - #2

Race 10:
Overweights: #2 - + 1

Race 11: Scratch #11 #14 #15 #16
Jockey Change: #1 Manny Aguilar
Overweights: #1 - +2 #5 - +1
#3 - Is A Colt

[Kasept]

Tampa Bay Downs -- Saturday, March 14, 2009

TRACK: Fast
TURF Firm
Portable Rail: at 0

Weather: Sunny – low 80’s

Super High 5 CARRYOVER: $0
Pick 6 CARRYOVER: $0

Scratches

4 1 Tarheel Girl
4 12 French Social
4 13 I Love to Say Yes

5 1 Catalina Express (POE)
5 2 Alice's Halo
5 7 Smooth Valentine

7 1 Up Mayo

9 3 Royal Ballade

10 9 Waquoit's Love

11 11 Top Seed

12 11 My Best Pal Red
12 12 Crowned General
12 13 Dukes Flying Tiger
12 14 Mr. Flatter

13 11 Sheikh
13 12 Somes Sound
13 13 Shanclif
13 14 Asgoodasshelooks

[Kasept]

Fair Grounds SCR'S

REVISED.. Added SCR and more possible. SloppyYielding..

Race 1 #5 Cobrador, #6 Northern Scene, #12 Tactical Weapon, #13 Gold Bells Spin, #14 Sultry Approval
Race 2 #6 Chief Jay
Race 5 #6 Precious Kiss
Race 7 #2 Golden Yank, #5 Brothers Nicholas, #7 El Caballo
Race 9 #10 Nowhere to Hide
Race 11 #1 Devil Dance, #2 Didn't He Ramble, #6 Colonel Klink, #11 Gamblers Reward
Race 12 #12 Extreme Warrior, #14 Inflight

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Fair Grounds SCR'S

Race 1 #5 Cobrador, #6 Northern Scene, #12 Tactical Weapon, #13 Gold Bells Spin, #14 Sultry Approval
Race 2 #6 Chief Jay
Race 5 #6 Precious Kiss
Race 7 #2 Golden Yank, #5 Brothers Nicholas, #7 El Caballo
Race 9 #10 Nowhere to Hide
Race 11 #1 Devil Dance, #2 Didn't He Ramble, #6 Colonel Klink, #11 Gamblers Reward
Race 12 #12 Extreme Warrior, #14 Inflight

Xpressbet showing Colonel SCRATCHED??? Not seeing that elsewhere, is that wrong?

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by philcski

Xpressbet showing Colonel SCRATCHED??? Not seeing that elsewhere, is that wrong?

just saw it on the FG feed, he's scratched.... also yielding and sloppy, what a bummer

-bt-