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#1
09-04-2006, 03:58 PM
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Mark it down: Scat Daddy WILL win the BC Juvenile
....here is the start of controversial thread #3 this week, as I'm sure many will disagree with their OPINIONS - which we all have.
Scat Daddy had yet another poor trip in the Hopeful, first going down to his knees after stubling significantly out of the gate and then having to recover and rush up into contention through a fast first quarter....then, Johnny V. makes another middle move up the inside through a VERY stout half mile in 44 and change, but the horse - being still green as all inexperienced 2-year-olds - flicked his ears up ad backed himself out of the tight spot created on the rail and Zito's horse in the two-path....you could clearly see the horse suck himself out of that situation out of intimidation, which simply comes from not doing it very often as a result of being a juvenile.... Then, he falls a good 3-4 lengths back, losing ground now, as they pick it up rounding the far turn.....Unbridled Express, who got a dream trip stalking on the outside, moved up under Prado and I loved the way Scat Daddy responed under a drive when losing groundads out-paced the talented Unbridled Express to the 3-wide position....Now, Scat Daddy - who had stumbled, been used in two or three different spots down the backstretch, and lost significant ground - had to rally between two very nice babies in Pegasus Wind and Unbridled Express,ad he was clearly moving better than the two when legthening his pretty stride - until Pegasus Wind, who is not a small horse by any means, came in bumped Scat Daddy VERY hard, knocking him off stride and pushing him out a path....Yet, Scat Daddy dug in and still out-finished that pair with noticably better strides and ability... Obviously, the damage had been done and stablemate Circular Quay, who enjoyed a dream trip under Gomez, mowed them all down late and won going away after saving all the ground and letting 3 nice colts duel themselves into submission through a grueling pace... To me, while everybody will look at the closing final quarter-mile of Circular Quay as the most impressive run of the race, I believe that Scat Daddy's middle quarter-mile was the most impressive..I haven't calculated it yet, but go back and watch the replay.... Circular Quay may be a better one-turn horse than Scat Daddy, but I really like what I see out of Scat Daddy in many departments and really believe he might have won this with a better trip and will beat his stablemate around two-turns....I know that Circular Quay is a Thunder Gulch, but I still have reservations about whether or not he'll display the same sort of closing lick around two-turns....you rarely see it with horses who close like he does around one turn....that kick gets really flat around two turns....just my opinion...we will see...I'll tell you this, his mother, who I was a big fan of (Circle of Life), was better around one-turn and was better at two than three....food for thought... Scat Daddy is bred deeper on the bottomside for stamina and I really think he proves best of this generation with better luck and a bit more distance....I'd like to see him relax in the clear for once and make that ONE good run for a 1/2 to 3/8s of a mile like Circular Quay did - instead of being put in tough situations for 2-year-olds where he has to do to many things to win the race.... Won't take anything away from CQ though.he's a nice colt, obviously...just think Scat Daddy is better and I bet if you asked Pletcher and actually got a square answer out of him he would probably echo the same thoughts...I've seen all 4 of these colts that I mentioned train at CD this spring and summer and they are all nice horses......Bernie's horse is talented but he goes awful in his left/front...wings it out really badly, but man what a nice-looking horse....he is an Unbridled's Song though so there's a great chance that soundness will be an issue at some point....I think Lukas' horse will be a nice sprinter/miler type down the road...he reminds e of this year's Henny Hughes (although probably not near as good as Henny of course)... The great thing about Scat Daddy is that he may also lose the Champagne to Circular Quay because iit is a ONE-TURN mile-and-a-sixteenth, which will only juice his price for the BC Juvy when it counts... Cue the critiscism in 5....4....3....2...  Last edited by Cunningham Racing : 09-04-2006 at 05:03 PM. 
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#2
09-04-2006, 04:09 PM
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you are much more rational on the radio than on this site. the truth is that the top 3 horses all ran great races and any of them can beat the other if the race is run a certain way. the problem is you are discounting all the other 2yr olds out there. right now circular quay is the top 2yr old but they are 2yr olds and can progress quickly. i would not say any horse in that race today is any more impressive than principle secret or even tiz wonderful. circular quay deserves to be the front runner though. i also would like to see soaring by, city snitch, out of gwedda and the frankel winner at belmont, before saying any 2yr old is going to win the bcj.
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#3
09-04-2006, 04:19 PM
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If E Z Warrior makes it back,he will take the Champagne.Haven't heard about him lately(since they shut him down because of a minor shin thing.)
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#4
09-04-2006, 04:23 PM
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good analysis. I agree that Scat Daddy ran a great race considering all the trouble he found. CQ also broke very poorly spotting the field 10-15 lengths (whether by design or not). I think the biggest difference between CQ and Scat Daddy is that CQ has already appeared to have figured this racing thing out. SD is still learning. Of course, it's impossible to predict how each one will mature, but SD should at least close the gap a little with more experience.
In the end, I still think CQ is better and will be down the road.. in my opinion. Either way, I hope we see these two hook up several more times in the future. CQ 4 the BCJ!!!
__________________
Alcohol, the cause and solution to all of life's problems. -Homer Simpson
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#5
09-04-2006, 04:24 PM
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#6
09-04-2006, 04:27 PM
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#7
09-04-2006, 04:27 PM
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#8
09-04-2006, 04:28 PM
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#9
09-04-2006, 04:42 PM
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Nonetheless a good race analysis Cunningham. I likes. Even if I have not seen the race which I will now attempt to do.
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#10
09-04-2006, 04:45 PM
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#11
09-04-2006, 05:31 PM
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#12
09-04-2006, 06:08 PM
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hold on...looking it up to make sure. if it wasn't her, it was a damned similar name!
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln Last edited by Danzig : 09-04-2006 at 06:11 PM.
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#15
09-04-2006, 06:12 PM
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#16
09-04-2006, 06:13 PM
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dunno, looking on drf...i remember seeing the article and thinking i should put it up here...but i didn't.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#19
09-04-2006, 06:16 PM
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sorry guys if i had ya worried...
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#20
09-04-2006, 06:19 PM
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then who is it in the eighth at Del Mar today?
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