Weekend Beyers (Revenge 103; Musket 98; POTN 96)

[Kasept]

Carter Handicap: KODIAK KOWBOY-FABULOUS STRIKE 104
Wood Memorial: I WANT REVENGE 103 (West Side Bernie 101)
Excelsior: GIANT MOON 95
Bay Shore: CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN 98

Skip Away: FINALLYMADEIT 101

Illinois Derby: MUSKET MAN 98

Oaklawn Handicap: IT'S A BIRD 107
Apple Blossom: SEVENTH STREET 100

Ashland: HOOH WHY-GOZZIP GIRL 90 (Stardom Bound 85)
Transylvania: STORMALLORY 89

Santa Anita Derby: PIONEEROF THE NILE 96
Providencia: ACTING LADY 95
Potrero Grande: SOUL CITY SLEW 102
Arcadia: DIXIE CHATTER 96
Santana Mile: RAIL TRIP 98

Tampa FL Turf Classic: FEARLESS EAGLE 98



OTHERS:
TP CLM: KICKIN N SCREAMIN 60
AQU ALW: MONTECORE 93
AQU MSW: FLAT BOLD 90

[slotdirt]

What do folks make of West Side Bernie's Wood? Considering how poor he ran last out, I thought it was a nice rebound. His trip wasn't completely clean either.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

His 3rd place finish in the Holy Bull was a very sneaky outstanding performance.

I'd draw a line through the race on that crap surface at Turfway.

[Travis Stone]

I too think WSB has a shot to hit the board (based off his Holy Bull far turn move) but if you take IWR out of Saturday's Wood, look at who WSB is running down. If you were to put some of the other quality horses in that race, I can't see WSB running-up for second against them. But, with some luck, who knows.

[slotdirt]

I'd hope they send him to Churchill - the horse at least deserves a shot. I wasn't sure what their game plan is at this point.

[Thunder Gulch]

The hard thing to figure about Bernie is that he won at Turfway last year. Something just didn't work two weeks ago, but I'm like you guys that think he can get a piece of the Derby with the right setup.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The hard thing to figure about Bernie is that he won at Turfway last year. Something just didn't work two weeks ago, but I'm like you guys that think he can get a piece of the Derby with the right setup.

It sure looked like he didn't care for being pinned down inside at Turfway in the Lane's End..

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'd hope they send him to Churchill - the horse at least deserves a shot. I wasn't sure what their game plan is at this point.

Per Dick Downey, Breen is running a horse Thursday at AQU and will then make shipping arrangements to Churchill.

Up in the air regarding Atomic Rain. He mentioned Preakness but that seems like wishful thinking. Though if you watch the replay, Atomic Rain ran a very nice race Saturday and never stopped running. He was just as trapped as I Want Revenge and even whacked the winner past the eighth pole trying to get out.

Watching the Wood is a riot. You see something new with every viewing.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I've been saying both things here and on PA. I think he would need some real bad luck by a few horses to win, but I think he has a real shot to hit the board in the Derby.

Been against him for the most part but the more I see, the more I like. When IWR went by he tried to rerally in the Wood. Not sure he can win but I think he could hit the board at a big price.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The hard thing to figure about Bernie is that he won at Turfway last year. Something just didn't work two weeks ago, but I'm like you guys that think he can get a piece of the Derby with the right setup.

His win there at age two graded out as a fairly mediocre performance I thought.

[slotdirt]

Don't discount the Turfway-CD angle!

[cmorioles]

The Aqueduct variant was split for the two nine furlong races. All the sprints, before and after, were consistent. The raw times are 12 points apart, yet the figures are only 8 points apart. Personally, I think the older horses were "boosted" four points since the pace was ridiculously slow. However, the argument could be made the Wood is four points too low instead.

[Mike]

That's spectacular news for I Want Revenge fans, as another 105+ speed fig was unnecessary for him, would attract more interest from the casual Derby bettors who may only understand the simplicity of speed figures, thus bring down his value.

In horse racing, as in everything it seems, the public's interest and adoration is short lived. There are still a few (weak) preps that might produce a high Beyer or a touching, feel-good type of horse(y) story that might deflect money elsewhere

With the quarter crack to Quality Road, IWR might be fine value if Quality Road is in the gate and sucking money. ( I agree with another poster on the QR quarter crack thread that betting horses having even minor injury bumps this close to the Derby results in a poor ROI)`

[slotdirt]

I was going to bring up Scat Daddy has a horse with minor injuries leading up to the Derby, but then I remembered that horse just stunk in general.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Carter Handicap: KODIAK KOWBOY-FABULOUS STRIKE 104
Wood Memorial: I WANT REVENGE 103 (West Side Bernie 101)
Excelsior: GIANT MOON 95
Bay Shore: CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN 98

Skip Away: FINALLYMADEIT 101

Illinois Derby: MUSKET MAN 98

Oaklawn Handicap: IT'S A BIRD 107
Apple Blossom: SEVENTH STREET 100

Ashland: HOOH WHY-GOZZIP GIRL 90 (Stardom Bound 85)
Transylvania: STORMALLORY 89

Santa Anita Derby: PIONEEROF THE NILE 96
Providencia: ACTING LADY 95
Potrero Grande: SOUL CITY SLEW 102
Arcadia: DIXIE CHATTER 96
Santana Mile: RAIL TRIP 98

Tampa FL Turf Classic: FEARLESS EAGLE 98



OTHERS:
TP CLM: KICKIN N SCREAMIN 60
AQU ALW: MONTECORE 93
AQU MSW: FLAT BOLD 90

Rachel Alexandra: 101

She bounced off of the 103 in the FG Oaks.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I've been saying both things here and on PA. I think he would need some real bad luck by a few horses to win, but I think he has a real shot to hit the board in the Derby.

I don't know man. I'd be shocked with an ITM run by WSB in the derby, unless of course, the faves keep dropping.

[Kasept]

Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figure from last week's stakes races:

*Oaklawn (OP): It's a Bird (M. Wolfson/J. Leparoux) - 107

*Carter (Aqu): Kodiak Kowboy (J. Jones/J. Velazquez) - 104
*Wood Memorial (Aqu): I Want Revenge (J. Mullins/J. Talamo) - 103
*Potrero Grande (SA): Soul City Slew (J. Carava/M. Baze) - 102
*Skip Away (GP): Finallymadeit (J. Negrete/E. Nunez) - 101
*Fantasy (OP): Rachel Alexandra (H. Wiggins/C. Borel) - 101
*Apple Blossom (OP): Seventh Street (K. McLaughlin/R. Maragh) - 100

*Princess of Palms (TuP): Shesa Private I (B. Hone/J. Barton) - 99
*Bay Shore (Aqu): Capt. Candyman Can (I. Wilkes/J. Castellano) - 98
*Kinsman Turf Classic (Tam): Fearless Eagle (E. Plesa Jr./E. Trujillo) - 98
*Illinois Derby (Haw): Musket Man (D. Ryan/E. Coa) - 98
*Santana Mile (SA): Rail Trip (R. Ellis/J. Valdivia Jr.) - 98
*Primonetta (Lrl): Access Fee (L. Murray/L. Garcia), Cammy's Choice (E. Lehman/J. Pimental) - 96 (*dead-heat)
*Arcadia (SA): Dixie Chatter (R. Mandella/T. Baze) - 96
*Santa Anita Derby (SA): Pioneerof the Nile (B. Baffert/G. Gomez) - 96
*Providencia (SA): Acting Lady (D. O'Neill/V. Espinoza) - 95
*Excelsior (Aqu): Giant Moon (R. Schosberg/E. Prado) - 95
*Las Flores (SA): Sweet August Moon (B. Koriner/A. Gryder) - 94
*Hilton Garden Inn Sprint (Tam): On the Vineyard (L. Scace/W. Martinez) - 92
*Wildcat (TuP): Allegre (M. Chambers/J. Barton) - 91
*L and D Farm Turf Distaff (Tam): Quiet Meadow (C. Brown/E. Trujillo) - 91
*Ashland (Kee): Hooh Why (D. Dupuy/C. Lanerie) - 90

*Smart Coupons (Aqu): See More Spirit (J. Hertler/S. Morales) - 89
*Central Bank Transylvania (Kee): Stormalory (W. Mott/J. Leparoux) - 89
*Yerba Buena (GG): Restless Soul - GB (B. Cecil/C. Schvaneveldt) - 88
*OBS Sophomore (Tam): Bee Cee Cee (E. Plesa Jr./D. Centeno) - 87
*Dowd Mile (Fon): The Nutz (S. Hall/D. Leeds) - 86
*Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf (Tam): Tamborim (W. Mott/D. Centeno) - 83

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

*Wood Memorial (Aqu): I Want Revenge (J. Mullins/J. Talamo) - 103

I originally was expecting that they might fudge the beyers upwards in this race, because I Want Revenge came in as a good horse, and didn't get to run to his final time potential because of the trip, and will be scored higher on the performance type of ratings.

You kind of had to score the beyer according to the place horse, and give IWR a couple pts higher than whatever the place horse should have got...

WSB = 101 ... It's debatable that they did [slide it up a few pts], but it certainly is not flagrant, if they did it's probably only 3 or 4 pts.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I originally was expecting that they might fudge the beyers upwards in this race, because I Want Revenge came in as a good horse, and didn't get to run to his final time potential because of the trip, and will be scored higher on the performance type of ratings.

You kind of had to score the beyer according to the place horse, and give IWR a couple pts higher than whatever the place horse should have got...

WSB = 101 ... It's debatable that they did [slide it up a few pts], but it certainly is not flagrant, if they did it's probably only 3 or 4 pts.

Why would you have to slide it up depending on the place horse? It's based on the time, not the trip the horse has right?