4/11 (OP): Arkansas Derby; Northern Spur; Instant Racing

wow my first post here, old fashion was injured in the race and will not run in the Derby. love the site and hope to post more often. good luck all.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by arizonadave

wow my first post here, old fashion was injured in the race and will not run in the Derby. love the site and hope to post more often. good luck all.

Leave now if you are smart. You aren't contaminated yet.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

So much for rating Old Fashioned near the front. 22.65

I guess they could care less about the Kentucky Derby, and decided the best way to get the Arkansas purse money was to get a clear lead.

not all horses can be taught how to rate. as for not caring less about the ky derby, i doubt that was their mindset. no doubt they were looking to win yesterday and still get to ky as well. due mainly to the horses way of going, the first didn't happen. due to the injury, the second won't either.

why anyone thought after his last race he would enjoy more distance, i don't know.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Danzig

not all horses can be taught how to rate. as for not caring less about the ky derby, i doubt that was their mindset. no doubt they were looking to win yesterday and still get to ky as well. due mainly to the horses way of going, the first didn't happen. due to the injury, the second won't either.

why anyone thought after his last race he would enjoy more distance, i don't know.

I think anyone who studies the game
would see there were two possibilities going into the Arkansas Derby.

EITHER:
A.) The horse can't be rated, unless clear on a non-existent pace (Remsen)

or

B.) The horse was asked to go too fast early vs. Silver City, and would have more left should he be rated at a moderate pace.


Now , following the Arkansas Derby, We get no answers.
The horse went too fast early again in what looked like jockey urging early speed rather than a runaway brama bull fighting heavy restraint. The jockey may or may not have been caught napping on a breather. AND the horse comes out with a fracture and we don't know when it occured.

Luckily we have DT expert analysts who can conclusively dissect these unknown puzzles.

Can you just share some of your secrets about how you solve these complex problems??

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

What about option C) the horse is going to have trouble winning as the distances keep increasing, because he wants a shorter distance.

right, that is the same as option A.
Meaning there is a possibility that he can't run a good race at the longer distances without having a clear lead on a moderate pace

which could be because of his pedigree or his breathing or anything

and there is other **** too , D) - maybe he actually regressed since his 2yo season

E) - maybe he has had some problems

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I guess there were a few more than two possibilities...

mainly 2

either he cant get the distance, or he was being ridden too fast

of course anything else can happen in a horse race or a career.
And it's easy to say now that we knew OF would get beat in the AD

but we have the Remsen Stakes, we have one of the better trainers, and a switch to a new jockey supposedly for a reason other than frying him out on the lead. I thought there was a chance he would rate on or even near the lead, and run a more balanced race.
Nope, same old run, injury, out ....
NEXT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I think anyone who studies the game
would see there were two possibilities going into the Arkansas Derby.

EITHER:
A.) The horse can't be rated, unless clear on a non-existent pace (Remsen)

or

B.) The horse was asked to go too fast early vs. Silver City, and would have more left should he be rated at a moderate pace.


Now , following the Arkansas Derby, We get no answers.
The horse went too fast early again in what looked like jockey urging early speed rather than a runaway brama bull fighting heavy restraint. The jockey may or may not have been caught napping on a breather. AND the horse comes out with a fracture and we don't know when it occured.

Luckily we have DT expert analysts who can conclusively dissect these unknown puzzles.

Can you just share some of your secrets about how you solve these complex problems??

i guess i didn't think it was a complex problem whether old fashioned would like 9f, so i have no secrets to share.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i guess i didn't think it was a complex problem whether old fashioned would like 9f, so i have no secrets to share.

I thought Old Fashioned would get the 9f at Oaklawn, but I held no illusions about his chances in the Derby.

There were a lot of excuses made after the Southwest, particularly when the Southwest fractions were compared to the fractions of a filly/mare claimer run at a mile two races earlier on the Southwest card. Some even reached back to Smarty Jones's Southwest to put a positive spin on Old Fashioned's Southwest. A Smarty Jones he was not. Probably not even a Rockport Harbor.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

I thought Old Fashioned would get the 9f at Oaklawn, but I held no illusions about his chances in the Derby.

There were a lot of excuses made after the Southwest, particularly when the Southwest fractions were compared to the fractions of a filly/mare claimer run at a mile two races earlier on the Southwest card. Some even reached back to Smarty Jones's Southwest to put a positive spin on Old Fashioned's Southwest. A Smarty Jones he was not. Probably not even a Rockport Harbor.

he almost did get it tho, didn't he? i just wonder how many from yesterday race really go on to do much?

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he almost did get it tho, didn't he? i just wonder how many from yesterday race really go on to do much?

He probably would have won if he hadn't thrown down that 22 and change opening quarter. I give him credit for putting up a fight in the stretch after his earlier efforts. I don't see a winner of a Triple Crown race from the rest of the bunch. Papa Clem will go on to win his share of stakes, and could clean up on the minor (Iowa-West Virginia-Pennsylvania-Indiana-Super) Derby circuit. Summer Bird ran well in only his third career run and second time around two turns, so he might develop into a nice horse.

What do you make of the one mile Northern Spur run two races earlier? Fast fractions of 22.69, 45.79, and 1:10.98, and the horses 1-2-3 at those calls finish 1-3-4. The final time was slightly faster than the time for the one mile Instant Racing, but the closing quarter for the Instant Racing was almost two seconds faster.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

He probably would have won if he hadn't thrown down that 22 and change opening quarter. I give him credit for putting up a fight in the stretch after his earlier efforts. I don't see a winner of a Triple Crown race from the rest of the bunch. Papa Clem will go on to win his share of stakes, and could clean up on the minor (Iowa-West Virginia-Pennsylvania-Indiana-Super) Derby circuit. Summer Bird ran well in only his third career run and second time around two turns, so he might develop into a nice horse.

What do you make of the one mile Northern Spur run two races earlier? Fast fractions of 22.69, 45.79, and 1:10.98, and the horses 1-2-3 at those calls finish 1-3-4. The final time was slightly faster than the time for the one mile Instant Racing, but the closing quarter for the Instant Racing was almost two seconds faster.

it seems oaklawn has been favoring early speed as it did in years past. it's telling on the quality of the two who were up front early behind OF in my opinion. they faded to last and second to last i believe. jones said that he made an 11th hour change due to how the track was playing; that he had expected to lay off papa clem thru moderate fractions but changed tactics. ooops
i had the tv on for the spur, but only half paid attention to it. completely missed the instant racing.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by DaTruth

He probably would have won if he hadn't thrown down that 22 and change opening quarter. I give him credit for putting up a fight in the stretch after his earlier efforts. I don't see a winner of a Triple Crown race from the rest of the bunch. Papa Clem will go on to win his share of stakes, and could clean up on the minor (Iowa-West Virginia-Pennsylvania-Indiana-Super) Derby circuit. Summer Bird ran well in only his third career run and second time around two turns, so he might develop into a nice horse.

yea that was a weak field. Win Willy almost went off at 2nd choice. Papa Clem had a slow lead in the slop in La. Derby and barely held 2nd there. (Which could be debated the Papa Clem hates the slop.)

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

not all horses can be taught how to rate. as for not caring less about the ky derby, i doubt that was their mindset. no doubt they were looking to win yesterday and still get to ky as well. due mainly to the horses way of going, the first didn't happen. due to the injury, the second won't either.

why anyone thought after his last race he would enjoy more distance, i don't know.

Didn't he indeed handle more distance in the Arkansas Derby than he did did in the Rebel? It's not that people walked away after his last race thinking "boy, I can't wait til they stretch him out further." It was pretty evident that running a similar kind of race to the Rebel, chasing another fast pace, would not serve him well. I can't speak for others but the reason that I thought he was going to run huge in the Arkansas Derby was because with Silver City out, I projected him to be on the lead and able to control things and as often happens in racing, when you let a horse get away loose on the lead, they can often go further than what you might think is their best distance. Hard Spun, Lion Heart, and Intercontinental are examples that jump out at me. OF's problem was that he just couldn't relax but he still ran a hell of a race in defeat and resisted, even came back at, a better horse in Papa Clem than he did Win Willy at a shorter distance.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

OF's problem was that he just couldn't relax

Now you and Danzig have stressed this point several times as fact.

Also have seen Danzig say that Jones "switched his tactics" and had originally wanted to rate just off Papa Clem , but adjusted to the speedway track and decided to try and steal the race.

So was it tactics or a rank uncontrollable horse?

obviously a moot point, but this stuff is interesting

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Now you and Danzig have stressed this point several times as fact.

Also have seen Danzig say that Jones "switched his tactics" and had originally wanted to rate just off Papa Clem , but adjusted to the speedway track and decided to try and steal the race.

So was it tactics or a rank uncontrollable horse?

obviously a moot point, but this stuff is interesting

I never heard Jones say anything like that. I only heard Thompson being intereviewed on the track and he said pretty much what was expected, that he'd let his course of action be decided by the break and if Papa Clem was sent, he'd try to rate off of him but if not, he'd just let his horse go where he naturally wanted to go. I expected him to be on the lead all along because I thought he had more natural speed than anyone else in the field. I don't think the horse was rank and uncontrollable though. Just that he wants to run fast and that it's in your best interest to let him do what he wants to do and not fight him because then you take even more out of him. Some horses naturally rate themselves. Old Fashioned didn't appear to be one of those.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I never heard Jones say anything like that. I only heard Thompson being intereviewed on the track and he said pretty much what was expected, that he'd let his course of action be decided by the break and if Papa Clem was sent, he'd try to rate off of him but if not, he'd just let his horse go where he naturally wanted to go. I expected him to be on the lead all along because I thought he had more natural speed than anyone else in the field. I don't think the horse was rank and uncontrollable though. Just that he wants to run fast and that it's in your best interest to let him do what he wants to do and not fight him because then you take even more out of him. Some horses naturally rate themselves. Old Fashioned didn't appear to be one of those.

it was in todays paper-i only read it late this afternoon.

and yes, i was shocked he went off at 1-1 based on his last, and the fact that he seemed to want on or near the lead and didn't want to take it easy up front. running fast up front does not equate to handling a longer distance imo. they blamed his last loss on attending a quick pace, but i didn't see anything from this horse that would mean they could change his mind on how to run early on.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Didn't he indeed handle more distance in the Arkansas Derby than he did did in the Rebel? It's not that people walked away after his last race thinking "boy, I can't wait til they stretch him out further." It was pretty evident that running a similar kind of race to the Rebel, chasing another fast pace, would not serve him well. I can't speak for others but the reason that I thought he was going to run huge in the Arkansas Derby was because with Silver City out, I projected him to be on the lead and able to control things and as often happens in racing, when you let a horse get away loose on the lead, they can often go further than what you might think is their best distance. Hard Spun, Lion Heart, and Intercontinental are examples that jump out at me. OF's problem was that he just couldn't relax but he still ran a hell of a race in defeat and resisted, even came back at, a better horse in Papa Clem than he did Win Willy at a shorter distance.

right. so if he couldn't relax in the rebel, i didn't expect him to suddenly learn a new lesson and do so in the AD. now, he almost won it anyway. but i wouldn't have bet a thin dime on him at the price he was at. and that was my main beef, that everyone threw so much money at him- and i didn't see an especially compelling reason to bet him down so hard.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Danzig

right. so if he couldn't relax in the rebel, i didn't expect him to suddenly learn a new lesson and do so in the AD. now, he almost won it anyway. but i wouldn't have bet a thin dime on him at the price he was at. and that was my main beef, that everyone threw so much money at him- and i didn't see an especially compelling reason to bet him down so hard.

I was banking on the fact that he couldn't relax in the Rebel because he was chasing another horse. There are a lot of horses like that. They go after a target and have a need to be in front and they won't relax when behind a horse but can do it when they are in front. I was looking for something more like his Remsen effort where he'd get a lead and relax enough to allow himself to perform at beyond his optimal distance. He almost got it done and the fact that he nearly did it while appearing to not relax much up front gave me a newfound respect for his abilities. I think I severely underestimated his talent and would have loved to see him in a race like the Met Mile or the Dwyer or Peter Pan at one-turn.