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#101
04-13-2009, 12:53 PM
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 You can wait til the day of the race to pick yours.... I'm going with Dunkirk... but obviously this bet is non existant if Dunkirk doesnt run in the race. And you can drink whatever you want!! I just like these kind of side bets, especially when someone really doesnt seem to care for a horse that I really like (I bet Cajun the other year the Curlin would finish ahead Scat Daddy... and that Bernardini would beat Perfect Drift in the BC Classic a few years ago... damn Cajun those were some bad picks you had!)
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#102
04-13-2009, 01:06 PM
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and yes, trusty can put back a lot of beers, a lot more than me!
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please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#103
04-13-2009, 01:13 PM
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#104
04-13-2009, 01:32 PM
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honestly, i'd rather someone (maybe you?) would explain to me what i'm missing about the horse. he's talented, no doubt. i just don't think he's quite ready for the deep end of the pool yet. he still has his floaties on.
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Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#105
04-13-2009, 01:32 PM
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an easy FTFY would be ANYONE'S picks are better. yet, he's still on t.v. go figure.
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Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#106
04-13-2009, 01:44 PM
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#107
04-13-2009, 01:49 PM
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I really dont know LOL. Its just a gamble to me. His move in the FL Derby reminded me of Monarcho's. Right after Monarcho's won the FL Derby I said "that horse is winning the KY Derby". Of course, he then ran 2nd in the Wood, and I jumped on board with some Goldophin horse (Express tour I believe), and wanted to kick myself after Monarcho's won so well... I just thought his move was real nice, and I think there will be a solid pace for a horse with Dunkirks' style to take advantage of. I think the front runners will burn each other out. I just like him thats all... as of now he's my choice to win it all. He really impressed me in the FL Derby.
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#108
04-13-2009, 02:37 PM
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hey, i know i could be completely offbase about dunkirk and he could prove me wrong-i can live with that. i just hope i enjoy this years derby more than last years. that one was the worst ever. anything has to be an improvement.
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Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#109
04-13-2009, 09:12 PM
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For those of you that have access to DRF Plus, there is an excellent article today by James Quinn called Derby Contender Short List.
In the article, Mr. Quinn indicates that Quality Road has by far the best speed and pace figures (even much better than IWR). The article also compares Dunkirk's speed and pace figures to Big Brown and concludes that Dunkirk represents no match and is a poor comparison to Big Brown, who had a spectacular 2-year old race. Also, Mr. Quinn indicates that Quality Road should be able to hold off Dunkirk again unless Dunkirk possesses a significant class edge based on his breeding. Last edited by mbahadur : 04-14-2009 at 03:39 AM.
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#110
04-13-2009, 10:10 PM
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Garret Gomez...
Assuming both horses stay healthy, who does he ride? Has his agent made a statement? I realize its early but a problem looms.
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#111
04-13-2009, 10:46 PM
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#112
04-13-2009, 10:50 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#113
04-13-2009, 11:07 PM
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#114
04-13-2009, 11:23 PM
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__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#115
04-13-2009, 11:28 PM
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There were some questions going into the Florida Derby about whether or not Quality Road would like the 2-turn distance. His race was great, but unfortunately he didn't face any adversity, because his trip was so easy. (His talent allowed the easy trip, so obviously it's hard to penalize him) So in the Kentucky Derby, if Quality Road has trouble getting settled, or if he has to make an earlier run, it could change all of the types of things that his speed and pace figures forecast. Dunkirk may be bred to want a little more ground than Quality Road, and in the Florida Derby he had to spot Quality Road a couple lengths in the difficulty of the trip. However he didn't look that strong at the finish. We'll know all the answers after the Derby of course 
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#116
04-14-2009, 03:45 AM
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"Assuming the colt runs, Dunkirk will arrive at Churchill Downs on a flimsy foundation for winning the most viciously debated competition on the American calendar. Still, this $3.7 million son of Unbridled's Song is talented, and forced Quality Road to extend himself throughout the stretch of the Florida Derby. Quality Road should be expected to repulse the Pletcher stable star again, unless Dunkirk possesses a definite class edge. The putative superiority on class must be significant, not a mere edge. That's plausible, but unlikely."
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#117
04-14-2009, 05:03 AM
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Huh? Class edge?
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#118
04-14-2009, 05:47 PM
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#119
04-14-2009, 10:55 PM
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dunkirk
I think he'll be the so-called "wise guy" horse this year, because he ran against the bias at GP and still ran 2nd, and it was only his 3rd lifetime start, and all the so-called experts are all over him. In my opinion he'll be overbet like in the 6/1 to 8/1 range. Without any foundation I can't touch him on the win end for a few reasons...I don't think the pace in this derby will be very fast, and of course I mentioned his lack of foundation. Also, everyone is comparing him to Big Brown. The field Big Brown beat is nothing close to this year's crop. Big Brown would not be a standout this year. I think he'll be in the Derby and will do no better than 3rd or 4th.
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#120
04-15-2009, 10:08 AM
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Dunkirk was less than even money in his first go in a stakes against Quality Road (and others) who had just run a 113 Beyer in a very impressive FOY win. You can guarantee that Dunkirk-Pletcher- Gomez? will be overbet regardless of whether or not you think he can win.
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Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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