Tosses

[jpops757]

When was the last time that a 20k claimer wasnt an auto toss? I think this horse has smome some serious upside. Wonder how the Ramseys are feeling? What were his flaws that caused him to be put on the claiming block?

[Pedigree Ann]

Young horses can fool you. You can work them alone, in company, whatever, and they don't show you much. So you don't think they are MSW class horse, especially if you didn't spend a lot for them (the Ramseys spent $20K), and you run them for a price. And in GQ's case, he just barely won, so it would have seemed that that was where he fit.

The new owner didn't turn him into a stakes horse immediately, either. It wasn't until December, after 7 starts, that GQ showed he might be a SW in waiting. Many of the higher profile trainers would have given up on him long ago, sent him down to the minors.

The high-class West Coast mare Manta (12 stakes wins, including 3 that were later G1 when grading came in) began her career in a MCl race, where she aired: she just hadn't been that impressive in her prep work.

Brass Hat started in a MCl race because his connections thought he needed a race, nothing else was in the book, and that no one was likely to claim a Prized gelding without any form.

[Danzig]

whenever someone mentions a horse once ran for a tag-i think of john henry. five times he ran in claiming races. the rest is history.

some horses start out well early, only to descend thru the ranks later in their career. some it's the exact opposite, which is what you have here.

[Thunder Gulch]

Charismatic ran for a tag- I believe around 62k- just 90 days before winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

If you're looking for tosses I'd suggest looking for horses who you don't believe are capable of improving enough to run a 103 Beyer.

Over the last 20 years the average Beyer figure earned by the 3rd place finisher in the Derby is a 103.

Only two horses have ever won the Derby without previously running a 103.

Giacomo in '05 and Sea Hero in '93

* Giacomo had run figures in the 93-to-98 range in each of his last 3 starts in much slower paced races - and on two of the three occasions over extreme speed biased tracks.

He figured to improve for a variety of reasons - from the hotter pace, to the added distance, to the much more favorable race shape, to the fact that John Shirreffs got him to work bullets of 1:23 and change and 1:11 and change in his final two Derby works ... on what was an otherwise slow poke worktab all season long.

Shirreffs is the single most lethal trainer I've ever seen when it comes to getting a horse to fire off of workouts. From '98 through '99 he went 14-for-24 with first time starters .. an other worldly ROI of $7.63 .. and many of his debut winners fired triple digit Beyers.

Since losing 505 farms .. he no longer gears horses up to run their best lifetime race 1st time out.

Notice the change in Giacomo's worktab:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...yderby_pps.pdf


* Sea Hero had never run a 103 Beyer before the Derby .. but I believe no one else in that field had either. It was the worst 3yo crop of all-time. The favorite Prairie Bayou had never even run a 100.


Not including I Want Revenge and Quality Road ... I don't like the chances of any individual horse in this field to run a 100 .. let alone a 103. Though several like Dunkirk and General Quarters have a shot at it - and at least one probably will.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Charismatic ran for a tag- I believe around 62k- just 90 days before winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

Imperialism ran for a tag several times.

[blackthroatedwind]

The number of top horses that ran for a tag during their careers is pretty lengthy. Lakeville Miss, 2YO champ in 1977, won her debut in a maiden claimer. Kelly Kip did the same. Successful Appeal also ran for a tag in his debut.

It happens fairly frequently. Connections aren't always as smart before races as Pedagogue Ann thinks she is afterwards.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The number of top horses that ran for a tag during their careers is pretty lengthy. Lakeville Miss, 2YO champ in 1977, won her debut in a maiden claimer. Kelly Kip did the same. Successful Appeal also ran for a tag in his debut.

It happens fairly frequently. Connections aren't always as smart before races as Pedagogue Ann thinks she is afterwards.

Pedagogue...noun, Teacher, Schoolmaster: especially: a dull, formal, or pedantic teacher.

[Indian Charlie]

Which BC distaff winner once ran for a maiden claiming tag (I think 12 or 20k)?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Which BC distaff winner once ran for a maiden claiming tag (I think 12 or 20k)?

Let me guess Personal Ensign..Shug misread her? lol

[Indian Charlie]

Yeah!

That was a good one!

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yeah!

That was a good one!

DrugS told me Hopelessly Devoted ran in a mdn claimer and lost..Only to go one and win 500k in some nice graded 1 stakes

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Which BC distaff winner once ran for a maiden claiming tag (I think 12 or 20k)?

Jewel Princess?

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Jewel Princess?

Ding,ding,ding....She ran first time out at CRC for 20k. Ran nowhere with a 33 beyer. In her 2nd start she ran for mdn32clm, she won with a 62 beyer.

When she beat Serena's Song in the BC Distaff she ran a whopping 114!!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Which BC distaff winner once ran for a maiden claiming tag (I think 12 or 20k)?

one dreamer?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Xtra Heat ran for a tag in her debut.

[Indian Charlie]

I remember when Jewel Princess was brought over from Fla to Ca, into the hands of Wallace Dollase.

I remember thinking, what the heck is this? A Key to the Mint filly debuting at some junk track for 20k now is going to run at SA?

Back then, you really didn't see shippers come in from cheaper tracks and move up 100 levels like you do now.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by jpops757

Wonder how the Ramseys are feeling? What were his flaws that caused him to be put on the claiming block?

Stupid, I'd think. If I were the Ramseys, I'd be looking for some answers from Ward. Like, for example, why someone who CUTS all his horses didn't cut GQ.

Then don't cut him and they run him for $20k. And Ward's on record as stating the horse wasn't much.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The number of top horses that ran for a tag during their careers is pretty lengthy. Lakeville Miss, 2YO champ in 1977, won her debut in a maiden claimer. Kelly Kip did the same. Successful Appeal also ran for a tag in his debut.

It happens fairly frequently. Connections aren't always as smart before races as Pedagogue Ann thinks she is afterwards.

If I remember KELLY KIP ran off the screen in a maiden claimer and was lucky not to lose him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by HaloWishingwell

If I remember KELLY KIP ran off the screen in a maiden claimer and was lucky not to lose him.

He set a track record as the second choice.

The favorite, who finished second, was claimed from Pletcher by Frank Martin. He was still a maiden when he finished second to Affirmed Success in that one's debut the following April.