Current Derby Field

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's absurd because the SH 3yos they beat aren't any good. . .

And the superstars I Want Revenge has beaten in two wins in NY were good?

It's really risky to base Derby selections on quality of competition unless you really think you have a handle on everyone in the crop.

NT

[tector]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Any interest in reviewing the credentials on the horses who have done it before? Going from Dubai to the Derby that is. The list isn't exactly stellar, and it hasn't happened since 2002, when Essence of Dubai went.

True--they ruin most of them before they can even them get back here.

I have heard this crap since the 90s on the old AOL boards, the seeming inevitability that the Sheik must prevail someday.

OK, whatever. Horses coming from overseas, anywhere, are a great angle in the Derby. Sure.

Faith-based handicapping lives!

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It's absurd because the SH 3yos they beat aren't any good. . .

They might not turn out to be, but I count it as six graded stakes winners or placers from the Southern Hemisphere. Which, of course, would be six more older horses than any one else in the field has beaten.

I'm not trying to offer this as a stone cold reason that either Desert Party or Regal Ransom will win the Kentucky Derby, but part of a larger picture.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tector

I have heard this crap since the 90s on the old AOL boards, the seeming inevitability that the Sheik must prevail someday.

Ah,

The days of such greats as Roger1807, HHLou, Claimboxx, and that dopey CFrischlin guy.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's really risky to base Derby selections on quality of competition unless you really think you have a handle on everyone in the crop.

Where does it look like I'm doing that?

[tector]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Ah,

The days of such greats as Roger1807, HHLou, Claimboxx, and that dopey CFrischlin guy.

And WAR OSAMA!

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Where does it look like I'm doing that?

You're making statements on quality of horses beat, which is only one step above taking the horse who ran the fastest 9 furlongs of all of the preps.

There are plenty of reasons to knock Desert Party, but I don't think saying that him beating older Southern Hemisphere 3YOs is absurd is accurate at all.
Then coming back to say that he beat nothing when all we know is that we have a handful of good 3YOs in this country is risky, as I stated.

NT

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by tector

In a year when the US contingent is better than it has been in years, people are seriously considering the towelhead horses? NOW?

Wow, some post. Are you related to Grits?

Good luck to His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Not sure if this will be the year (I like both Godolphin horses along with IWR, Musket Man and General Quarters) but I agree with Pat... they both have a shot.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You're making statements on quality of horses beat, which is only one step above taking the horse who ran the fastest 9 furlongs of all of the preps.

There are plenty of reasons to knock Desert Party, but I don't think saying that him beating older Southern Hemisphere 3YOs is absurd is accurate at all.
Then coming back to say that he beat nothing when all we know is that we have a handful of good 3YOs in this country is risky, as I stated.

NT

The problem I have with citing the SH 3yos thing is that it becomes completely irrelevant when you consider the level of those horses. I didn't say that the American also-rans were much better, although I'd probably give them an edge. To take it to an extreme: what if some 3 year-old in the derby beat a bunch of older claimers- would there be any merit in arguing in that horse's favor simply because he beat older horses? Age is irrelevant when we're talking about relatively slow/untalented also-rans. If none of them are that good, who cares if some of them were born 1/2 a year earlier or whatever?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tector

And WAR OSAMA!

Yeah - that was one for the scrapbook.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Ah,

The days of such greats as Roger1807, HHLou, Claimboxx, and that dopey CFrischlin guy.

Do you remember that weird socially disfunctional kid that came on there back in the late 90s? What was his name? ItalianLuvGod69?

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Of course, if you speak to Smith's ex-wife, she has more of an emotional story about breeding Desert Party, which she did with her then-husband.

I'm sure she does.

[tector]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Do you remember that weird socially disfunctional kid that came on there back in the late 90s? What was his name? ItalianLuvGod69?

Dude couldn't keep away from the underage girls.

Probably in prison as we speak.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by tector

Dude couldn't keep away from the underage girls.

Probably in prison as we speak.

No, I think he hit it big with Krispy Kreme stocks and gave up girls and sex so that he could focus on betting.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Please share your rationale for why Regal Ransom can't stay 10 furlongs.

- There were major stamina doubts about him staying 9 furlongs before the Derby and I believe the track helped him stay. I dont think he can run the same type of race over 10 furlongs and last home.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by brockguy

- There were major stamina doubts about him staying 9 furlongs before the Derby and I believe the track helped him stay. I dont think he can run the same type of race over 10 furlongs and last home.

Yeah...Godolphin thought he would have problems staying, Simon Crisford said such very early in the Carnival...and I totally agree that the track helped him stay.

That being said, his breeding suggests he can last.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by tector

In a year when the US contingent is better than it has been in years, people are seriously considering the towelhead horses? NOW?

[Bobby Fischer]

my father is bugging me to know where Conservative is pointed next.

Has anyone heard? It seems he wouldn't get in the derby...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I can understand your concern based on previous tries - but comparing these two to ANY previous Godolphin Derby horses is a mistake, in my opinion.

The 3YO races in Dubai have increased in quality substantially the last five years through the Carnival, and even more so the past three years with a major influx of horses from the Southern Hemisphere.

If Desert Party and Regal Ransom lost to the older horses in their first or second starts, using age as an excuse is possible, but they handled them well through three consecutive, finishing 15 in front of Soy Libriano in the UAE Derby, an older SH 3YO.

It should be viewed as undeniable that the two horses Godolphin will have in the Derby are their best chances ever, and if you don't believe it, just ask them.

they might be their best chance yet-but that doesn't mean they can do what has yet to be done either. referencing southern hemi horses as a reason to like the two from dubai doesn't exactly inspire confidence-it's not as tho there was an invasor type in the bunch, was there? obviously not, since none of them could handle six months younger competition.

of the two however, desert party imo is the one to watch. but i think the competition the two will face next wknd is far tougher than what they had in dubai.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but i think the competition _______ will face next wknd is far tougher than what they had in _______.

Insert every horse in the Kentucky Derby for the first blank and their previous race locations in the second blank.