5/1-2: ATR Selections

[Kasept]

Weather serious threat to Oaks-Derby Weekend, but you never can count on forecast in this region. Don't abandon or revise your plans unless you see clear indication of compromise to fairness of the racetrack.


CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #11 Custom for Carlos 5-2
Best Value: #2 Fufty Too 30-1
Next Best: #1 Munnings 6-1
Super Add: #4 Street Car 5-1


6th: 15th Aegon Turf Sprint (Gr. III), 3+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Smart Enough 3-1
Next Best: #6 Chamberlain Bridge 5-2
Best Value: #5 Due Date 12-1
Super Add: #4 Captivating Cat 8-1


7th: 24th Louisville (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Sporting move by Mosses to come here, but will be surprised if Shirreffs runs Zenyatta over a sea of slop, and race flow against the wonder mare ayway...

Best Value: #4 One Caroline 3-1
Most Likely: #2 Zenyatta 4-5
Next Best: #8 Unbridled Belle 3-1
Super Add: #3 Miss Isella 15-1


8th: 25th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

May cover ridiculous 6-5 ML fave Laragh in multis but looking to score out within race..

Most Likely: #7 Magical Affair 5-1
Best Value: #2 Fleet Streak 20-1
Next Best: #11 Diamond Tags 10-1
Super Add: #1 Excelente 30-1


9th: 6th Alysheba (Gr. III), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cool Coal Man 4-1
Best Value: #5 Bullsbay 6-1
Next Best: #3 Mambo in Seattle 5-1
Super Add: #8 Dr. Pleasure 6-1


10th: 18th American Turf (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #5 Skipadate 10-1
Most Likely: #1 Stormallory 5-2
Next Best: #3 Battle of Hastings 3-1
Super Add: #7 Turfiste 8-1


11th: 135th Kentucky Oaks (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, KO-KD Dbl, KO-WRTC-KD P3, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Rachel Alexandra 3-5
Next Best: #5 Justwhistledixie 5-2
Best Value: #2 Be Fair 15-1
Super Add: #4 Gabby's Golden Girl 10-1


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-7-10-11
9: 1-3-4-5-8-9
10: 1-3-5-7
11: 6

5x6x4x1 = 120 x .50 = $60


Good luck!
Steve



GUS ALONSO'S OAKS DAY ACTION


Churchill Downs - Oaks Day


R6 - G3 Aegon Turf Sprint S. (Turf)

#6 Chamberlain Bridge
#2 Smart Enough
#7 Cannonball
#8 Accredit

R7 - G2 Louisville

#4 One Caroline
#2 Zenyatta - Anticipating her to scratch.
#8 Unbridled Belle
#1 Swift Temper

R8 - Edgewood (Turf)

#7 Magical Affair - BEST BET
#4 Abbott Hall
#10 Laragh
#8 More of the Best

PK3 - 2 6 7 8 / 4 / 4 7 10 = $12

Tri Key 7 / 3 8 10

R9 - G3 Alysheba

#5 Bullsbay
#1 Macho Again
#4 Cool Coal Man
#8 Dr. Pleasure

Ex Box - 5 / 1 4 8

R10 - G3 American Turf

#1 Stormalory
#5 Skipadate
#6 Bittel Road
#2 Jack Spratt

Tri Key - 1 / 2 3 5 6

R11 - G1 Kentucky Oaks

#6 Rachel Alexandra
#5 Justwhistledixie
#4 Gabby's Golden Gal
#8 Flying Spur

PK4 - 7 / 1 4 5 8 / 1 2 3 5 6 / 6 = $20

R12 - MSW 48k (Turf)

#9 Waccamaw
#6 Kiddari
#10 Tantamount
#12 Cape Cod Bay


Arlington Park

R8 - Timeless Native

#2 Coragil Cat - Defending champ looking for a repeat.
#4 Mr. Soul
#6 Lovango
#5 Numismatist

Tri Key 2 / 4 5 6


Good Racing Luck

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: 75th Churchill Downs (Gr. II), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #3 Kodiak Cowboy 8-5
Next Best: #9 Sok Sok 5-2
Best Value: #8 Silver Edition 12-1
Super Add: #6 Accredit 8-1


7th: 54th Eight Belles (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 7.5f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #1 Just Jenda 4-1
Best Value: #10 Auspicious 9-2
Next Best: #4 Four Gifts 3-1
Super Add: #7 Loveyou Everybody 15-1


8th: 24th Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #2 Visit 7-2
Best Value: #1 Lemon Chiffon 6-1
Next Best: #7 Ballymore Lady 9-2
Super Add: #3 Tizaqueena 8-1


9th: 23rd Humana Distaff (Gr. I), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #9 Game Face 2-1
Best Value: #7 Royale Michelle 10-1
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision 9-5
Super Add: #5 Secret Gypsy 7-2


10th: 23rd Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Gr. I), 3+, 9f-T ((P4, P3, DD, $1 Super)

Most Likely: #6 Einstein 2-1
Best Value: #9 Zambezi Sun 10-1
Next Best: #4 Court Vision 7-2
Super Add: #3 Proudinsky 6-1


11th: 135th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, $1 Super)

Best Value: #11 Chocolate Candy 20-1: Candy Ride colt should relish trip, surface; sharp pre-race work..
Most Likely: #6 Friesan Fire 5-1: Grudgingly respect solid A.P. Indy that may own big tactical edge..
Exotics Use: #5 Hold Me Back 15-1; #10 Regal Ransom 30-1
Super Add: #1 West Side Bernie 30-1; #3 Mr. Hot Stuff 30-1


<$100 P4 Play:

8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 3-4-6-9
11: 3-5-6-10-11-13-15

2x3x4x7 = 168 x .50 = $84


<$300 P6 Play:

6: 3-6-8-9
7: 1
8: 1-2
9: 3-7-9
10: 6
11: 3-5-6-10-11-15

4x1x2x3x1x6 = 144 x $2 = $288


Good luck!
Steve



GUS ALONSO'S DERBY DAY ACTION

R1 - MSW 48k

#5 Britannia Rose
#8 Secret Humor
#1 Mother Ruth
#4 Awesome Grannie

R2 - Alw 52.7k N2X

#7 Major Pleasure
#4 Riley Tucker
#5 Saratoga Seven
#1 Izanagi

R3 - MSW 48k

#3 Rotterdam
#10 Polished
#2 Eagle Poise
#6 Prospective Love

R4 - Alw 50.2k N1X

#6 Brother Keith
#5 Ziegfeld
#1 Northern Prince
#7 Bull Toccet

R5 - OC80k/N3X (Turf)

#1 Why Tonto
#7 Pick Six
#11 Jazz in the Park
#4 Artic Cry

PK4 - 4 7 / 2 3 10 / 1 5 6 / 1 4 7 11 = $36 for a $.50 play

R6 - G2 Churchill Downs Handicap

#3 Kodiak Kowboy - Highweight is as tough as they come.
#6 Accredit
#9 Sok Sok
#5 Spotsgone

R7 - G3 Eight Belles

#4 Four Gifts
#7 Lady's Laughter
#1 Just Jenda
#10 Auspicious

PK4 - 1 5 6 / 1 4 7 11 / 3 / 1 4 7 10 = $24 for a $.50 play

R8 - G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (Turf)

#2 Visit (GB) - She looks tougher than a $2 steak in this event.
#1 Lemon Chiffon - Will find her best strides late.
#11 Dawn After Dawn - Consistent sort loves the distance.
#7 Ballymore Lady - Has run well off a freshening.

R9 - G1 Humana Distaff
(Difficult to separate top 3)

#3 Informed Decision
#9 Game Face
#5 Secret Gypsy
#8 Modification

R10 - G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Turf)

#9 Zambezi Sun (GB) - Failed at odds on in U.S. Debut, no excuses here with soft going.
#6 Einstein (Brz) - Defending champ will bring it again.
#4 Court Vision - G1 winner takes the hood off.
#3 Proudinsky (Ger) - Minor aware well within his grasp.

R11 - G1 Kentucky Derby

#1 West Side Bernie - The rail is no treat, but he could be played underneath in Tri/Supers.
#2 Musket Man - Must continue to prove himself, but is taking a huge step up with a difficult post.
#3 Mr. Hot Stuff - One of three WinStar runners side by side. Tough assignment to tackle.
#4 Advice - Don't see him as a threat and he's probably just happy to be here.
#5 Hold Me Back - I really like the way he's coming in and looks to be sitting on a peak performance.
#6 Freisan Fire - Jones knows how to get them ready and it seems like the Racing Gods are looking out for him.
#7 Papa Clem - Versatile colt might be being overlooked.
#8 Mine That Bird - Borel will just have look forward this time.
#9 Join in the Dance - Will flash some speed if nothing else.
#10 Regal Ransom - Tricky read for me, but siding against.
#11 Chocolate Candy - Connections say he will handle the wet track.
#12 General Quarters - Great story and can't fault anyone that is taking a shot with him.
#13 I Want Revenge - Contender has beaten a couple of weak fields in the Big Apple and I'm going against the favorite.
#14 Atomic Rain - Arrived at CD late and will probably be late getting to the wire.
#15 Dunkirk - Potential is unlimited, but the inexperience might be his downfall. Top choice.
#16 Pioneerof the Nile - Gomez has stated that he likes to wait on horses. Pass.
#17 Summer Bird - Will definitely stay the trip and could blow up some exotic tickets.
#18 Nowhere to Hide - Similar to last year's Derby, Zito brings a knife to a gun fight.
#19 Desert Party - Not the ideal draw, but he could be the one to finally bring the elusive roses to Dubai.
#20 Flying Private - Hasn't won since last summer and the water is deep here.

Selections
#15 Dunkirk
#6 Freisan Fire
#19 Desert Party
#5 Hold Me Back

PK4 - 1 2 / 3 5 9 / 4 6 9 / 6 15 19 = $27 for a $.50 play

R12 - Alw 50.2k N1X

#7 Honchis'n Ponchis
#8 Passion Du Coeur
#1 Luster
#4 East Breaks

R13 - MSW 48k

#2 Ambergris Caye
#3 Cullinan
#10 Delta Emperator
#13 Victory Notion - AE

PK4 - 4 6 9 / 5 6 15 19 / 7 8 / 2 3 10 = $36 for a $.50 play

Good Racing Luck