Derby thoughts....

[2 Dollar Bill]

After the race, im sitting watching all the excitement and I wonder why I feel cheated? Playing Derby Cat's contest and following each three year old race and debating (in my head) the Dunkirks (no race as a 2 yearold), POTN (races on poly) & FF..(off 7 weeks) of the world. To listen to all the wonderful guests on Steve's Radio show and the only way I had the Eight was playing my House address....8 2 5.. which would of been nice except for the 16 in there . So I wonder instead of buying a DRF, taking notes of each three year old race up to the derby, listen to the trainers & guest on the radio / tv. Should I just take $2.00 and bet every horse in the race ?
Get out the Dartboard and get my exacta's/ triples/ supers ? Have my own
Derby draw and pick bingo balls out of the hopper ? Sometimes I wonder why not hit the ""All"" button and pray for the longshot . Are all these three year olds just the same and no super horse here ? I was wondering why I woke up yesterday morning saying.... ""How did I not see this Number Eight horse "" ?
Just my luck I'll play every horse in the preakness and get a $6.40 winner!!


[ok off my soap box ]

[South Beach Luv]

I feel the same way, my first year following the Derby Trail and all I wanted was a good horse to win, it's the last thing I told my wife before the gates opened.

[slotdirt]

I still feel completely cheated that I went all the way down to Louisville again only to see Mine that motherf-ing Bird in the Derby. At least I got to see Rachel Alexandra.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I still feel completely cheated that I went all the way down to Louisville again only to see Mine that motherf-ing Bird in the Derby. At least I got to see Rachel Alexandra.

LOL... too bad he is gelded... "Mine that motherf-ing Bird" could be his offspring...

[2 Dollar Bill]

Well Im glad im not the only one feeling that way... Should I start following two year olds for Next years derby ??

[randallscott35]

Don't feel cheated. It was a crazy race. A great ride. A memorable performance. Unpredictability is a great thing in horse racing....In fact a result like that is easier to stomach.

[Thunder Gulch]

A few years back a couple of friends of mine started pooling an all/all exacta in the Derby. You would have made money in over half of the last ten years, including the 9800 Giacomo score. It's also not bad in the Belmont with a smaller investment and recent bombs like DaTara, Lemon Drop Kid, Commendable, and Sarava. Not your everyday-every race bet, but it's working for them.

[MaTH716]

Maybe the fact you feel cheated has to due with the lack of triple crown chatter. Usually there is so much talk/hype after the derby about the winner possibly being "the horse". But after this result no one has mentioned the words Triple Crown. Let alone the exciting summer races down the road.
After all the medicore talk about last years crop, we all thought that this years was going to be head and shoulders better. But guess what. Obiviously we lost the front runners to injury. Most of what was left didn't lift a hoof in the race for various reasons/excuses. And we are left with an unlikely winner who might not even go to Pimlico.
So much for TC fever this year. Maybe that's why some of you feel cheated. Makes you kind of miss the exciement that surrounded Big Brown.

[slotdirt]

At least I could hate on Big Brown. I'm still so shocked that this nag won the Derby that I haven't even mustered up the energy for hate yet.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

first off congrats to calvin/trainer/connections. did i win money on the race no. did i try yes .im more concerned about the impact that this will have in the future.you may have lost 200 bucks betting the derby. look at what the
breeders, bloodstock, connections of horses that were purchased with a whole lot more money at the big sales did the pre subscibed charting of the races too have enough graded money. flying the horses in ,hotels,sky boxes,
partys ect. to get beat soundly by a horse that was purchased for less than the bar tab at the jordan suite. came in town in a one horse trailer,with a jock
who had not seen the horse til monday the week of the race. though i love it for the little guy to pull off such a great feat. i fear that as a whole some of the big owners and midlevel guys would say why bother..in the end i think it
hurts everyone..my 2 c..hooves

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

first off congrats to calvin/trainer/connections. did i win money on the race no. did i try yes .im more concerned about the impact that this will have in the future.you may have lost 200 bucks betting the derby. look at what the
breeders, bloodstock, connections of horses that were purchased with a whole lot more money at the big sales did the pre subscibed charting of the races too have enough graded money. flying the horses in ,hotels,sky boxes,
partys ect. to get beat soundly by a horse that was purchased for less than the bar tab at the jordan suite. came in town in a one horse trailer,with a jock
who had not seen the horse til monday the week of the race. though i love it for the little guy to pull off such a great feat. i fear that as a whole some of the big owners and midlevel guys would say why bother..in the end i think it
hurts everyone..my 2 c..hooves

yeah, next year we won't have 20 in the gate because people won't want to make the attempt.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

first off congrats to calvin/trainer/connections. did i win money on the race no. did i try yes .im more concerned about the impact that this will have in the future.you may have lost 200 bucks betting the derby. look at what the
breeders, bloodstock, connections of horses that were purchased with a whole lot more money at the big sales did the pre subscibed charting of the races too have enough graded money. flying the horses in ,hotels,sky boxes,
partys ect. to get beat soundly by a horse that was purchased for less than the bar tab at the jordan suite. came in town in a one horse trailer,with a jock
who had not seen the horse til monday the week of the race. though i love it for the little guy to pull off such a great feat. i fear that as a whole some of the big owners and midlevel guys would say why bother..in the end i think it
hurts everyone..my 2 c..hooves

Matt well put... This derby seems to have a Disney Movie written all over it!

[joeydb]

Could only have been more shocking if his name was "Glue Factory" instead of "Mine That Bird".

[sumitas]

Did I bet the race ? No . Did I handicap it at all ? Not really . I did look at the tgraph seminar after the race and it was pointed out that MTB was one of the few horses who could run a top . I think Regal Ransom was another . And there were a lot of bounce candidates .

Most of the industry hype prior to the race goes to the big name stallion runners just to hype their stud fees and factory farms. The connections of Mine That Bird are way down in New Mexico and the media simply ignored them.

I think this helps the sport . The underdog can win .

[Riot]

Winning the Derby is definitely preparation meets luck. Lukas keeps saying the Derby will flat-out humble you every time.

Why is the trainer who had his horse prepared and ready to move up being dissed so badly, along with the horse? This horse was slammed and pinched back five strides out of the gate - that particular "bad luck" that has taken out many a favorite in many a race. "Lost all chance at the start" - we hear that Derby after Derby.

Similar bad luck a little outside the eight post took out Dunkirk at the start. Fresian Fire was beaten up badly.

Not only did Borel change game plans, it worked. It worked because the trainer had his horse prepared for the opportunity. The horse - racing down that canyon of screaming that's the last 1/4 mile of the Derby, obviously has guts, little fear, trust in his jock, and the deep desire to win.

If people are going to be angry, why are they not angry at and dissing the trainers who were brazenly humbled, whose horses ended up poorly prepared (couldn't even pair up) and whose horses took people's money?

Actually, as gambling is a venture best maximized by cool objectivity and reason, I don't understand why anyone lets the emotion of anger take over. This race screamed chaos, and I doubt many would have bet proportionately the same amount out of their bankrolls into the pool if it were not the Derby.

Frustration, sure - because everyone would like have a piece of those payoffs. The Derby flat-out humbles gamblers every time, too.

Yes, I won absolutely zero on the Derby this year. Whiff ....

But I'm excited to see if the Canadian 2-year-old Champion has found some three-year-old form, or if May 2 was the highlight of his career. I still want to see how 10 horses or so out of the Derby do the rest of the year. There's alot to look forward to. From a sporting fan perspective, I can root for this little gelding.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Did I bet the race ? No . Did I handicap it at all ? Not really . I did look at the tgraph seminar after the race and it was pointed out that MTB was one of the few horses who could run a top . I think Regal Ransom was another . And there were a lot of bounce candidates .

Most of the industry hype prior to the race goes to the big name stallion runners just to hype their stud fees and factory farms. The connections of Mine That Bird are way down in New Mexico and the media simply ignored them.

I think this helps the sport . The underdog can win .

good post, for all of its hype. the derby is probably one of the WORST betting races for a SERIOUS handicapper. especially in shaky conditions like a wet track. these horses come from all over from different preps that one has to decipher and none have been the distance. its more of a crap shoot than any major race but people are in love with it. 20 horse come charging out and some are eliminated at the start, even the logical ones. people get worked up for months over it when in actuality most years the under cards on oaks and derby day are places to make sure scores. the derby is actually "window dressing" and should be bet for fun or in pics and doubles. putting the bankroll on that race is just plain dumb.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

good post, for all of its hype. the derby is probably one of the WORST betting races for a SERIOUS handicapper. especially in shaky conditions like a wet track. these horses come from all over from different preps that one has to decipher and none have been the distance. its more of a crap shoot than any major race but people are in love with it. 20 horse come charging out and some are eliminated at the start, even the logical ones. people get worked up for months over it when in actuality most years the under cards on oaks and derby day are places to make sure scores. the derby is actually "window dressing" and should be bet for fun or in pics and doubles. putting the bankroll on that race is just plain dumb.

I disagree, generally the Derby provides excellent opportunites and excellent payouts. Often, it is the last time that you will see any value on a truly very good horse and you can make huge hits on exactas, tris and supers. Favorites tend to be overlaid in comparison to thier actual chances of winning the race. There is also more stupid money in the Derby pool than any other race in the year. Mine that Bird was an underlay at 50-1 which creates overlays on others. Just because this race was won by an incomprehensible horse does not make the Derby a bad betting race. Any race with 19 to 20 starters will offer value somewhere.

The good thing about this shocker is that it will create overlays in future years as there will be a lot of stupid money put on horses that have no chance in the next few years which will overlay the horses that actually have a real chance to win the race.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by pointman

I disagree, generally the Derby provides excellent opportunites and excellent payouts. Often, it is the last time that you will see any value on a truly very good horse and you can make huge hits on exactas, tris and supers. Favorites tend to be overlaid in comparison to thier actual chances of winning the race. There is also more stupid money in the Derby pool than any other race in the year. Mine that Bird was an underlay at 50-1 which creates overlays on others. Just because this race was won by an incomprehensible horse does not make the Derby a bad betting race. Any race with 19 to 20 starters will offer value somewhere.

The good thing about this shocker is that it will create overlays in future years as there will be a lot of stupid money put on horses that have no chance in the next few years which will overlay the horses that actually have a real chance to win the race.

you are right , there are opportunities. but they are all very unreliable because of the nature of the race. its good for odds but bad on reliability. its not a bad betting race because of the results. its a bad betting race because of the conditions. yes, its worth a shot but seriously betting serious money is out of the question. the race is more of a calvary charge than a race. horses are eliminated at the start. how do you handicap that? why should you risk money on that bumper car race when bullsbay, informed decision and einstein were such easy pickings at good prices. that was my point.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

you are right , there are opportunities. but they are all very unreliable because of the nature of the race. its good for odds but bad on reliability. its not a bad betting race because of the results. its a bad betting race because of the conditions. yes, its worth a shot but seriously betting serious money is out of the question. the race is more of a calvary charge than a race. horses are eliminated at the start. how do you handicap that? why should you risk money on that bumper car race when bullsbay, informed decision and einstein were such easy pickings at good prices. that was my point.

I suppose you could argue that the track condition really affected the betting opportunities of this particular race, but I feel like people have short memories because we have had two big upsets in the last few years. The fact of the matter is that 20 horse field or not, the best horse usually wins the Derby. The fact is that you will almost always get a higher price than you would not ordinarily get on that horse save for two reasons, the size of the field and the stupid money being thrown into the pool. From a betting standpoint, this is the definition of a good betting opportunity.

The exactas, tri's, superfectas can be immense pays using logical horses, throw in a couple of longshots and you can cash a ticket the size that you could rarely get on any raceday in America. Personally I love the Derby and have had some huge returns that one just could not get in another race.

[richard burch]

this is story book / movie material. a jockey who cant read or write, a trainer with a broken leg, a 1600 mile drive in a truck with the horse in tow and a $9,500.00 horse who couldn't find the winners circle.

so what's the problem?