Weekend Beyers (Rachel 108; Bird 105)

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by kgar311

So what the odds that some 15k claiming horses from Sunland start to ship over to Churchill for some graded stakes races?

Mine That Bird was nowhere near the level of a claiming horse, you can't use the comparison. He ran in a 900k race filled with allowance/small stakes type horses. Possibly G3 level horses if you look at Kelly Leak.

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by Riot

Here's some Beyer jumpup numbers the rest of the Derby field have already produced in their careers.

Good young horses have a jump up. Can they hold it, repeat it, is it their new real level or was it too much and they are out, injured?

Mind That Bird, coming in with a good pattern, was fortunate enough to have his jumpup in the Derby.

Flying Private - 44-71 + 27
Hot Stuff - 71 - 96 +25
Mind That Bird - 80 - 105 + 25
I Want Revenge - 92-113 + 23
Dunkirk - 77 - 98 + 21
Summer Bird - 78 - 99 + 21
Hold Me Back - 77-97 + 20
Fresian Fire - 77 - 94 + 17
West Side Bernie - 84 - 101 + 17
Atomic Rain - 82 - 95 + 13

IMO, this is all you need to see.... Happens a lot, just not in the Derby.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by gales0678

again a past infraction is a past infraction, what proof do you have or does anyone on the board have the he was juiced that day? i would like to see it

The problem is that with the really good cheaters is that it is very hard to find the proof, that is why they are successful. They do get caught every once in a while since all cheaters makes mistakes here and there.

What you seem to be missing is that people see the Dutrow's and the Mullins as cheaters for two reasons, they do get caught often enough and horses make such unexplainable improvements when they come under their care.

Although, calling someone a cheater just because they move a horse up here and there can be unfair as well as horses can have problems, mental or physical, or bad habits that can be fixed which a prior trainer may not have been able to figure out which can explain improvement as well.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by booner

This is along the lines of what I was looking for. I had heard all the discussion about IWR's jump (breeding for dirt imparticular) that made his improvment in the Gotham logical.

Would it be incorrect to assume that MTB would produce a comparible performance the next time he hits the slop? Of course I realize that pace, trip, etc. would play a factor, but just from a raw handicapping standpoint, you would have to take a hard look at him?

Once again, I'm not doing this to try to say "MTB is a Triple Crown horse if the track turns up sloppy the next 2 races", but instead to look at using this angle for other races and other horses.

Booner, I am no expert on Beyer figures, but have a fair understanding and others, such as Drugs may be better suited to answer such questions than me.

Certainly it is logical to conclude that MTB likes the slop and some of the improvement could be attributed to that and that you should move him up when he gets a muddy surface again. It is just one tool amongst many handicapping tools you can use although you would like to see a bigger sample than one race before making the conclusion, but you can certainly find some longshots based on seeing good races under certain conditions.

A good example would be Accredit from earlier on the Churchill card on Saturday, I am doing this from memory, but I gave Accredit a chance to win that race at a decent price based upon the fact that he was 4 for 4 on off tracks and had run some good speed figures if I remember correctly. However, just because a horse has not run well in the off going once or twice does not mean they don't like it, the horse may have had traffic problems, bad trips, etc.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Mine That Bird was nowhere near the level of a claiming horse, you can't use the comparison. He ran in a 900k race filled with allowance/small stakes type horses. Possibly G3 level horses if you look at Kelly Leak.

I didnt say he was, I answered a post that said there was some sort of angle from training and racing at Sunland in high altitudes and coming to CD and making a huge jump and improvement. I was just saying that some fool out there might think his 15 claimer is a stake horse now at Churchill.

[tiggerv]

-4 TG figure for RA

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

-4 TG figure for RA

Thats huge for a ground saving trip that only got a 107 beyer.
With her type of trip seems like a 113-116 beyer would be more in line with the neg# 4

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Thats huge for a ground saving trip that only got a 107 beyer.
With her type of trip seems like a 113-116 beyer would be more in line with the neg# 4

Friday had to be a nightmare for figuremakers with the track condition changing like seven times, but I agree that I thought her Beyer would be higher.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

actually I just typed a random number


there is no accountability on the internet..


but what about my other questions?

If Bird was on drugs do you really think he was the only horse in the race on drugs?

and dont you think the mud had more to do with the moveup?

If he was drugged in this race I'm sure he was drugged in his other races... and he still ran slow.

Its not like he was just claimed and moved up right away...

95% of statistics are made up.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Friday had to be a nightmare for figuremakers with the track condition changing like seven times, but I agree that I thought her Beyer would be higher.

I'm not even remotely close to being an expert when it comes to making figures, but when you look at her time and compare it to the time in the Distaff, why would you think her figure would be higher than it is?