5/16: Pimlico (Preakness Day)

[Kasept]

Black-Eyed Susan Day left punters with black eyes as any attempt to make real money was quashed by a parade of short-priced winners. You know it's a short arm kind of day when you catch two P4's and LOSE $50 on them... No matter. The prequel should have left everyone in good shape for what has potential to be a much better chance to mix in long prices with the obvious Saturday. Hope everyone did well and enjoys what may be one of those special kinds of days Saturday...


HI HO, PIMLICO


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Malibu Joe 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Storms Past 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Wild Repent 7-2 5th
Super Add: #Ijada's Run 6-1 2nd


2nd: 17th Allaire DuPont (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1a Skylighter 1-1 WON
Best Value: #6 All Smiles 6-1 3rd


3rd: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Hot Bullet 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #5 Stonestreet Star 9-5 7th
Next Best: #2 Pocket Patch 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Y'er Man 20-1 5th


4th: 22nd Wm. Schaefer (Gr. II), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Ea 3-1 2nd-DH
Best Value: #7 No Advantage 12-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Ready Set 5-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Real Merchant 4-1 2nd-DH


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Habitual 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Motown Shuffle 20-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Cold Orient 6-1 10th
Super Add: #9 Robey's Choice 15-1 7th


6th: 2nd Deputed Testimony (R), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Norjac 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Terrific Tom 15-1 7th
Next Best: #11 Sumacha'hot 2-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Thunder Charm 10-1 8th


7th: 58th Gallorette (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Dynaforce 4-5 5th
Best Value: #3 Shytoe Lafeet 10-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Tejida 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 All is Vanity 9-2 2nd


8th: 34th Hirsch Jacobs (Gr. II), 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Not for Silver 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Everyday Heroes 6-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Taqarub 5-2
Super Add: #7 Nuclear Wayne 4-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-7-10
6: 3-5
7: 3-8
8: 1-2-3-6-7-9

3x2x2x6 = $72


9th: 44th Woodlawn, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, DD)

Best Value: #7 Code of Honour 8-1 8th
Most Likely: #8 Affirmatif 3-5 WON
Next Best: #1 Heros Image 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Dakota Dunes 12-1 5th


10th: 23rd Maryland Sprint H. (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ravalo 3-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Ah Day 5-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Torpedo Run 12-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Celtic Innis 10-1 3rd


11th: 108th Dixie (Gr. II), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Frankel/Attfield entry 5-2 9th (#1 Proudinsky SCR'D)
Best Value: #2 Monba 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Strike a Deal 5-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Lauro 8-1 4th


12th: 134th Preakness (Gr. I), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5 WON
Best Value: #3 Musket Man 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Mine That Bird 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Pioneerof the Nile 5-1 11th
High 5 Play: #7 Papa Clem 12-1 7th

$1 Trifecta (13-2-3) Paid $108.10
$1 Exacta (13-2) Paid $19.60


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-7-8
10: 5-6-7-8
11: 1-2-3-4-8-12
12: 13

3x4x6x1 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4,5,8/1,8/3,9/13) Paid $65.10


Good luck!
Steve

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by Kasept

12th: 134th Preakness (Gr. I), 3yo, 9.5f (DD, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #13 Rachel Alexandra 8-5
Best Value: #3 Musket Man 8-1
Next Best: #2 Mine That Bird 6-1
Exotics Use: #9 Pioneerof the Nile 5-1
High 5 Play: #7 Papa Clem 12-1


Good luck!
Steve

Steve, just curious why no Big Drama? I think he will be forced to go, you think he'll just blow himself out? I included him in my live DD, with RA though I know she'll be tough to beat. Best of luck Steve.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by mclem0822

Steve, just curious why no Big Drama? I think he will be forced to go, you think he'll just blow himself out? I included him in my live DD, with RA though I know she'll be tough to beat. Best of luck Steve.

Undoubtedly had real bottom coming into the season, and Fawkes says he's fit, but I have a tough time accepting 'fit to go 9.5f off one 7f prep'.

G/L!! Going to be a fun day...

[mclem0822]

Thanks for the feedback. You been on such a roll, let's keep it going!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

10th: 23rd Maryland Sprint H. (Gr. III), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Ravalo 3-1
Best Value: #1 West Coast Flier 6-1
Next Best: #5 Ah Day 5-2
Super Add: #7 Celtic Innis 10-1

Tryin' to figure what you see in Ravalo at 3-1... seems like he's lost a step (6,3 this year) and the Commonwealth was a moderate pace and he still gave it up... certainly a horse that knows the wire though and either of his races at MNR last winter would be good enough. I'm going to use 2,3,5 in there most likely. I like your thoughts of beating the goofy 3/5 Affirmatif in the first leg, though. I don't really get that line, I could understand 8/5 but he's not much better than anybody else in here (a glorified N1X). It's fallen a long way from the year where future BC Mile winner Artie Schiller put on a scintillating performance.

[asudevil]

Colonel Rutledge...Buzz coming from everywhere. Goes off at 4-1 IMO.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Tryin' to figure what you see in Ravalo at 3-1... seems like he's lost a step (6,3 this year) and the Commonwealth was a moderate pace and he still gave it up... certainly a horse that knows the wire though and either of his races at MNR last winter would be good enough. I'm going to use 2,3,5 in there most likely. I like your thoughts of beating the goofy 3/5 Affirmatif in the first leg, though. I don't really get that line, I could understand 8/5 but he's not much better than anybody else in here (a glorified N1X). It's fallen a long way from the year where future BC Mile winner Artie Schiller put on a scintillating performance.

There's nothing in that sprint that Ravalo can't beat with any of his typical '08 performances. If he has lost a step, you wouldn't know it based on the :57.3 workout in March. That drill may have been responsible for the blah effort at KEE, and since when do you count on him beyond 6f anyway?

The horse I'd love to boost into this is Celtic Innis, who is one my absolute favorite geldings. The winningest son ($510k) of the great Yarrow Brae...

As for the Woodlawn, as I said on ATR last night, this is one of the more interesting betting affairs on the card. Don't know if my logic was faulty, but if Affirmatif was anything other than ordinary, why run him in a $50k listed stake? In that 2nd race at KEE he was downright embarassing, and it turns out that field he blasted at Gulfstream was perhaps the worst group of MSW turf runners of the meet. Only Final Count came back to win with a decent figure (87 at KEE 4/19). Oree won on the KEE main for Arnold with a scintillating 78 Beyer. The rest are, in the words of Serling, bums. Affirmatif can win I suppose, but there's three pace-interested parties in that race. Good luck to him...

[ddthetide]

any thought on Fresian Fire or General Quarters?

[herkhorse]

Anyone know if Striking Tomisue is running at Pimlico or Belmont?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Anyone know if Striking Tomisue is running at Pimlico or Belmont?

TD,

There's a few of those to worry about... Sea Chanter another. We'll know soon.

Originally Posted by ddthetide

any thought on Fresian Fire or General Quarters?

Honestly, no... There are a number of respected opinions saying to back the horses that DIDN'T fire in Derby like Fire and Quarters. Steve Crist said that on ATR and in CristBlog yesterday, and TG's Jerry Brown feels that way too.

But historically, the most successful Derby runners perform positively at Pimlico for the most part. Musket Man, Papa Clem and Pioneer ALL seem to be displaying plus signals going into the race today. Haskin thinks Pioneer has GAINED weight since Derby, usually a very good sign on the short turnaround... Musket Man was totally on edge in his Monmouth work... Mine That Bird is full of energy and is more animated than Woolley has ever seen him: a sign that a horse is at a fitness peak...

Certainly Friesan Fire was worse than could possibly be believed 2 weeks ago and can only run better today. He reportedly finished up the work this week with much more energy than the pre-race Churchill drill: Something Jones acknowledged on ATR this week... I think very little of General Quarters, and especially McCarthy, and freely admit I am letting my distaste colour my judgement on his prospects.

[cowgirlintexas]

Originally Posted by Kasept

TD,

There's a few of those to worry about... Sea Chanter another. We'll know soon.


Honestly, no... There are a number of respected opinions saying to back the horses that DIDN'T fire in Derby like Fire and Quarters. Steve Crist said that on ATR and in CristBlog yesterday, and TG's Jerry Brown feels that way too.

But historically, the most successful Derby runners perform positively at Pimlico for the most part. Musket Man, Papa Clem and Pioneer ALL seem to be displaying plus signals going into the race today. Haskin thinks Pioneer has GAINED weight since Derby, usually a very good sign on the short turnaround... Musket Man was totally on edge in his Monmouth work... Mine That Bird is full of energy and is more animated than Woolley has ever seen him: a sign that a horse is at a fitness peak...

Certainly Friesan Fire was worse than could possibly be believed 2 weeks ago and can only run better today... I think very little of General Quarters, and especially McCarthy, and freely admit I am letting my distaste colour my judgement on his prospects.

Is there something your not telling us? I hav'nt heard anything "bad" about this guy.. Do tell....

I thought this was a "feel good " story.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by cowgirlintexas

Is there something your not telling us? I hav'nt heard anything "bad" about this guy.. Do tell.... I thought this was a "feel good" story.

It really isn't. I don't want to re-hash this, but McCarthy is a creep. You can find the original thread around the Blue Grass where I mentioned that he basically stuck it to Mark Miller who trained the horse for McCarthy through the winter.

Here's Haskin's appreciation of Miller:
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...llers-time-too

And here's the post-Sam Davis article just so McCarthy remembers what he said then...
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/ne...bles-sam-davis

General Quarters has now bankrolled $167,735 from a record of 9-2-3-1. He made a winning debut last May at Churchill Downs for a $20,000 tag and was promptly claimed by McCarthy. A distant sixth in the Bashford Manor S. (G3) next time out, he toiled in allowance company last fall and only came around after McCarthy sent him to Miller at Tampa. In his two starts for his new trainer, he finished second to Top Seed in the Inaugural S. and to Musket Man in the Pasco S.

"I'm just real proud of him," Miller said. "He proved a lot today. Mr. McCarthy got him in Kentucky; I was stabled next to him in Kentucky, and that's how we met. He sent the horse down here to me, and he just loves it here. He loves the track; this is the best place to be in the winter time. The track surface, the people, the atmosphere... the horse just loves it. And that's all we're trying to do -- keep him happy. He seems to be on the improve."

"I'm the groom," McCarthy said. "I'm out here every day, and we (Miller and McCarthy) work as a team. I sent General Quarters down to Mark, and we correspond, and when I got down here, I just started rubbing him.

"He's the best groom I've got," Miller interjected.

[Port Conway Lane]

After a poor choice in the fifth race yesterday I find the fifth today an interesting race. In a field dominated by closers the #3 Our Big Wally stretches out from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles from the 3 hole.This is the only horse in the trainers barn and over 5 years she has a respectable record although her turf stats leave a lot to be desired.

Oscar Mancilla will try to take this one wire to wire in his only mount of the day.I'm not familiar with the breeding stats concerning this horses stamina but find it interesting to see Turn To Reason as the broodmare sire.His blood used to show up in Maryland breds on a daily basis 30 years ago and I can't remember the last time I've seen his name.

Good luck to everyone today !

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Here's how I see it.....

RACHEL ALEXANDRA (#13) Borel / Asmussen 9-5
The super three year old filly turned heads with a 20 plus length victory in the Kentucky Oaks, now she races for new connections and takes on the boys, draws almost impossible post…..but, won with devastating ease in her last start without being asked, gotta go with her in this spot spite her odds.

MUSKET MAN (#3) Coa / Ryan 10-1
The one I feared the most in the Derby and did not use, ran his usual good race parked wide in the stretch drive while forced out, gotta think he’ll fire his best shot again and at good odds.

MINE THAT BIRD (#2) Smith / Woolley 9-2
Very hard to leave this impressive Kentucky Derby winner out of the top three, Got his track and excellent ride in the Derby, race sets up for him again…..would be no surprise to make it two in a row.

TAKE THE POINTS (#11) Prado / Pletcher 30-1
Decided to skip the Derby by his connections after two good efforts on the Santa Anita “pro-ride” surface, looks to be forwardly placed in the running of this race, a longshot that may be overlooked.

FRIESAN FIRE (#5) Saez / Jones 10-1
Didn’t fire at all as the lukewarm favorite in the Derby with horrible trip , could be a “throw out” under the circumstances he endured, maybe has a Louis Quartorze like turn around effort in his cards.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

There's nothing in that sprint that Ravalo can't beat with any of his typical '08 performances. If he has lost a step, you wouldn't know it based on the :57.3 workout in March. That drill may have been responsible for the blah effort at KEE, and since when do you count on him beyond 6f anyway?

The horse I'd love to boost into this is Celtic Innis, who is one my absolute favorite geldings. The winningest son ($510k) of the great Yarrow Brae...

As for the Woodlawn, as I said on ATR last night, this is one of the more interesting betting affairs on the card. Don't know if my logic was faulty, but if Affirmatif was anything other than ordinary, why run him in a $50k listed stake? In that 2nd race at KEE he was downright embarassing, and it turns out that field he blasted at Gulfstream was perhaps the worst group of MSW turf runners of the meet. Only Final Count came back to win with a decent figure (87 at KEE 4/19). Oree won on the KEE main for Arnold with a scintillating 78 Beyer. The rest are, in the words of Serling, bums. Affirmatif can win I suppose, but there's three pace-interested parties in that race. Good luck to him...

Didn't CELTIC INNIS win this heat a few years back? His pp's don't go past the '07 renewal but I seem to recall him winning at 10-1 or so. Or maybe it was 2nd in the Friendly Island year. He definitely has a chance.

FYI West Coast Flyer is cross entered tomorrow at Belmont, where he's 6/5 on the ML. Let's see where they end up. This is a pretty salty race for a $100k G3.

The good Jersey bred Forgetaboutit Sal is also by the studly Yarrow Brae.

[tbonds]

Question for all!!
Does anyone have a feel on Terrain? In his last he, look like he had more runleft in him. Can he make it in some exotics?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by tbonds

Question for all!!
Does anyone have a feel on Terrain? In his last he, look like he had more runleft in him. Can he make it in some exotics?

He'll run 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th. 0% chance to win and 0% chance to finish worse than 8th.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by philcski

He'll run 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th. 0% chance to win and 0% chance to finish worse than 8th.

Agreed, little chance of hitting the exacta. Might use him 4th, maybe 3rd on a ticket or 2.

[tbonds]

Originally Posted by 3kings

Agreed, little chance of hitting the exacta. Might use him 4th, maybe 3rd on a ticket or 2.

I guess best to leave him out if playing Pick 4. Gives me more to work with in other races.
Thanks

[Kasept]

PIMLICO CHANGES


Track: Fast
Turf: On the Turf
Forecast: Overcast
______________________________________
RACE 1 @ 10:15

Scratch #1 Smokin Heart
#7 Cash N Wink

_______________________________________
RACE 2 @ 10:44

Scratch #5 Striking Tomisue
_______________________________________
RACE 3 @ 11:13

Scratch #4 Winter Walk
_______________________________________
RACE 4 @ 11:48

No Changes
_______________________________________
RACE 5 @ 12:28

Scratch #5 Foxs Uptown Boy
#11 Chancellery
#13 Ovechkin

_______________________________________
RACE 6 @ 1:07

Scratch #2 Take Down Two
_______________________________________
RACE 7 @ 1:55

Scratch #5 Quiet Meadow
_______________________________________
RACE 8 @ 2:35

No Changes
_______________________________________
RACE 9 @ 3:44

Scratch #4 Beacon Hill Road
_______________________________________
RACE 10 @ 4:30

Scratch #1 West Coast Flier
_______________________________________
RACE 11 @ 5:13

Scratch #9 Brickell
_______________________________________
RACE 12 @ 6:15

No Changes
_______________________________________
RACE 13 @ 7:15

Scratch #4 Louiegoboldly