5/28 DRF ROTD: Belmont 1st

[Kasept]

http://www.drf.com/video/rod.html


1st (Post time 1:00)

7 Furlongs (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Allowance Optional Claiming ($30,000) | Purse: $45,000

1 1 Gold Vendetta Maragh R Goldberg Alan E 121 L 5-1
2 2 Victorious Affair Garcia Alan Kelly Patrick J 121 L 20-1
3 3 Stormy Success Chavez J F Toscano John T Jr 121 L 30-1
4 4 Missinglisalewis Coa E M Domino Carl J 121 L 4-1
5 5 Extra Zip Dominguez R A Martin Carlos F 121 $30,000 L 9-2
6 6 Remarkable Storm Lezcano J Parisella John 119 L 7-2
7 7 Groomedforvictory Castellano J J Tagg Barclay 121 L 3-1
8 8 Zip to the City Espinoza J L Arroyo Enrique 121 $30,000 L 12-1
9 9 Urban Flight Velasquez C Violette, Jr. R A 123 L 10-1
10 MTO Stopbluffing Luzzi M J Carroll Del W II 121 L 4-1

Exacta, Trifecta, Super (10 cent), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Daily Double Wagers




No wait for the day's top attraction
By David Grening

ELMONT, N.Y. - If you miss the first race at Belmont Park on Thursday, you may miss the most interesting betting event on the nine-race card.

Provided the race remains on the turf at seven furlongs, the second-level allowance race restricted to New York-breds drew a deep field of nine, with few that can be thrown out easily. If able to return to the form he showed on turf twice last summer, Gold Vendetta could be the right one.

A 4-year-old son of Gold Fever, Gold Vendetta took sweetly to the turf last June 29, winning a first-level statebred allowance over Belmont's inner turf. On Aug. 6, Gold Vendetta was beaten just a neck in a division of the New York Stallion Stakes at Saratoga, which proved to be his last start of the year.

"He just wasn't doing any good so we stopped on him," said trainer Alan Goldberg.

Goldberg brought Gold Vendetta back at this condition level here on May 7, but the race was rained off the turf and run on the main track. Gold Vendetta finished fourth in the seven-horse field.

"I thought he'd run a little better than that because he was doing really well," Goldberg said. "Maybe he just wants the turf."

Rajiv Maragh, who rode Gold Vendetta in both of his turf races last summer, is up again, starting from the rail.

There does not appear to be much pace lined up for this race, which could make Extra Zip dangerous. Nearly one year ago, Extra Zip won a similar race in gate-to-wire fashion. He has not run since finishing last in an allowance last Aug. 23 at Saratoga. Trainer Carlos Martin said the horse underwent surgery to remove a knee chip, but has been training well for this. Extra Zip, a 5-year-old gelding, is entered for the optional claiming price of $35,000.

Remarkable Storm and Urban Flight both come off strong entry-level allowance victories. Remarkable Storm is stretching out a furlong, while Urban Flight shortens up from 1 1/16 miles.

Missinglisalewis will make his third start at the meet for trainer Carl Domino. He was third as the favorite going longer after getting beat three lengths, with some traffic trouble in the stretch, at this distance on April 30. He gets a rider switch to Eibar Coa.

Groomedforvictory will try turf for the first time for trainer Barclay Tagg, who does well making surface switches. If rain moves this to dirt, Groomedforvictory would be the one to beat.

[hockey2315]

I like the 8 a little. . .

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i like the 9..w/p/s

[CSC]

BE1 -1,5,6/1,4,5,6,7 Exacta Turf only

Tough race to figure, very indecisive about the 4 and 8. I'll stick with this ticket.

[Mike]

I like the 1,3,5,6,7 and 8 a little

Common sense would dictate a Gold Vendetta/Extra Zip exacta box


The wallet says Stormy Success

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

BE1 -1,5,6/1,4,5,6,7 Exacta Turf only

Tough race to figure, very indecisive about the 4 and 8. I'll stick with this ticket.

Off their last race, the 4 is not finishing ahead of the 8 today.

[dean smith]

Could a more experienced player please explain to me why #3 Stormy Success would be 30/1 on the ML? It spooks me to the point that I feel if I use him I'm playing into some kind of sucker scenario. (Looking at Brisnet PPs) He's got a 100 speed fig. last out (1 1/16 sf turf, Kingston 100K), 2nd in the Prime Power ratings, and poor turf jockey and trainer notwithstanding, he finished just 2 lengths behind today's ML fav, Groomed for Victory (3/1) the last time they hooked up (off turf in slop).

Any thoughts?

[Bobby Fischer]

7 looks best on paper.

the 6 could be good. 1 and 8 underneath

[Mike]

Originally Posted by dean smith

Could a more experienced player please explain to me why #3 Stormy Success would be 30/1 on the ML? It spooks me to the point that I feel if I use him I'm playing into some kind of sucker scenario. (Looking at Brisnet PPs) He's got a 100 speed fig. last out (1 1/16 sf turf, Kingston 100K), 2nd in the Prime Power ratings, and poor turf jockey and trainer notwithstanding, he finished just 2 lengths behind today's ML fav, Groomed for Victory (3/1) the last time they hooked up (off turf in slop).

Any thoughts?

This is a good example of discrepancies between DRF and Bris pps, much of which is due to a big difference in speed figs at this level. The Bris speed figs would show little difference in these 2nd level N.Y. state-breds and the figs they give to the Breeders Cup Turf entries. The Beyers show greater disparity at this relatively low level

Of course, Stormy Success could have finally turned the corner at age 5, 2 out of his last three were good and led to high Brisnet figures

Figures aside, that was a 3rd place showing in a $100+k stakes last out. Brisnet will tell you his current class is also tops in the field

[dean smith]

Originally Posted by Mike

This is a good example of discrepancies between DRF and Bris pps, much of which is due to a big difference in speed figs at this level. The Bris speed figs would show little difference in these 2nd level N.Y. state-breds and the figs they give to the Breeders Cup Turf entries. The Beyers show greater disparity at this relatively low level

Of course, Stormy Success could have finally turned the corner at age 5, 2 out of his last three were good and led to high Brisnet figures

Figures aside, that was a 3rd place showing in a $100+k stakes last out. Brisnet will tell you his current class is also tops in the field

So, are you saying the Brisnet PPs are more insightful in this case, or misleading?

[Mike]

Since the removal of blinkers Stormy Success has had 2 of 3 good races.

Anyone have a Formulator version that will show a replay of that April 22 out of the money race? I wonder if he had an excuse, if so, the blinkers off move may explain recent and continued success.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by dean smith

So, are you saying the Brisnet PPs are more insightful in this case, or misleading?

Others here can probably explain things better. My thinking is that the Brisnet pp's are more likely misleading than not.

It brings up a question. I know there used to be The Form, the DRF, to use in the form of a newspaper in hand to help handicap and imagine probabilities and likelihoods in one's mind. A competing set of pp's may have more weaknesses but may also point out some other perspective

Stormy Success is no value with 34 mtp, however

[Mike]

The DRF pp's go way back and show Stormy Success to probably have peaked as a racehorse long ago, but on weird surfaces, ocassionally comes flying at the end, rising to the level of the competition(IMO)

The last figure from Brisnet is unlikely to be repeated and is probably a result of their lack of adjusting(as the Beyers do) for the Soft turf that day

I'm betting a 1-5 exacta box

[philcski]

I like the 1. Probably needed the last and beat Cannonball two back pretty handily, who would be 2/5 against this group.

$20 WP 1
$5 exactas 1/5,6,7,8 $3 exactas 5,6,7,8/1
$1 tri 1/5,6,7,8/5,6,7,8

[gales0678]

$5 ex box

1,5,8,9

[geeker2]

$20 W 9
$2 ex all/9

gl

[Ronnie]

3,4,7 exacta box

[MaTH716]

1-6 exacta

[Mike]

The #5, Extra Zip, off since last August , wins at $15.20

[dean smith]

It turns out 30/1 was a TERRIBLE ML for Stormy Success after all.

I'm starting to figure this crap out...