6/5: Belmont (6th-10th)

[Kasept]

Went into last leg of double carry P6 live to even money Zito MTO for just under $10,000 Thursday, only to see Paco Lopez scrubbing on no horse around the far turn. It was not to be, and the P4 went down the drain as well. Cannot complain about the outcome for a second though, because while I made a bad decision wasting multiples in the third leg 6th, (when Parisella favorite jogged), I may not have used the J. Jerkens nightcap winner anyway had more slots been an option for me. 5 of 6 conso was kind enough to pay $200 to cover the $192 play. Caught a nice $100+ triple earlier in the card when Jaystone ran to expectation. Hope you did well.

Dreadful day of weather seems a certainty today. Better today than tomorrow...


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 SOUTH FOURTH ST. 5-2
Best Value: #3 Stopbluffing 6-1
Next Best: #5 A Zero Trap 4-1


7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

OFF THE TURF: 8-1a-7


8th: Glowing Honor, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF: 11-12-13-8


9th: Hill Prince (Gr. III), 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF: 2-3-10-8


10th: Brooklyn H. (Gr. II), 3+, 12f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Ea 7-2 (Expected half of entry)
Best Value: #2 Nite Light 6-1
Next Best: #7 Alcomo 4-1
Super Add: #9 Rising Moon 5-1


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-7-8
8: 11-12-13
9: 2-3-8-10
10: 1-7

3x3x4x2 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[herkhorse]

Man, the weather forecast went down the drain in a hurry. Supposed to rain tonight too. With over 1 inch of rain expected today and tonight, can they stay on the turf tomorrow?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Man, the weather forecast went down the drain in a hurry. Supposed to rain tonight too. With over 1 inch of rain expected today and tonight, can they stay on the turf tomorrow?

They'll do everything possibvle for the two stakes obviously. As long as it isn't dangerous, the Manhattan and Just a Game should be OK. The 4th, 5th, 12th and 13th are the other scheduled grass events and would be dubious if the rain comes as expected. The entire weather situation shifted from Wed-Thurs to Thurs-Fri. Saturday still appears beautiful.

Right now it is OK here.. Didn't get much rain last night either.

[Bogey]

I like Nite Light to make amends for last year's running at a value price.

only to see Paco Lopez scrubbing on no horse around the far turn.

Steve, I think Maragh was aboard Zito's horse in the last.

I have my own agonizing beat at Hollywood, played a $72 late pick 4...
using 2/ 2,4-7,10-12 / 3,4,8 / 2,4,8
thinking the 6th is wide open and I throw out the 4 horses that I believe had NO chance (all 4 went off at 75-1 or higher) instead of hitting the ALL button (for another $36) . Stein wins with 100-1 shot in 6th and pk4 pays 29K !!!

Still in agony over that play. When I hit the ALL I get the chalk, when I trim I get burnt.

[hockey2315]

Surprised you don't like the Trombetta in the Hill Prince, Steve.

[viscount26]

Turf courst listed as soft for 8th & 9th
Scratches for the late plays
5th Off the turf 1,3,5,7,8
7th Off the turf 1,2
8th 1,2,9
9th 7
10th 1A, 8

[Kasept]

1

1 (poe) Tempest Storm Early OFF TURF / NO SHOW or TRIFECTA
1X Not Now Early
2 Inter Galactic Early
3 Catching Early
4 My Nina Rose Early
7 Elena's Princess Early


3

1A Decorated Court Early


4

1 (poe) Mani Bhavan Early NO SHOW or TRIFECTA
1A Hollywood Hills Early
2 Roxyana Early


5

1 Baronshill Early OFF TURF / NO TRIFECTA or SUPERFECTA
3 Tizallaboutme Early
5 Morethan Fourhours Early
7 Ex Pat Early
8 Ducduc Early


7

1 (poe) Try Your Best (TUR) Early OFF TURF
2 Raffie's Princess Early


8

1 Anofficerandalady Early
2 Life Lesson Early
9 Sales Tax Early


9

7 Elmfield Boy Early


10

1A Barrier Reef Early
4 Lord Kipling Early
8 Don Misil (ARG) Early

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Surprised you don't like the Trombetta in the Hill Prince, Steve.

I don't get him at all... Only if it comes off.

[declansharbor]

Who moves up in the slop today for the Brooklyn? Eldaafer and Alcomo (logical off-track play) ??

[Mike]

Can I get a verification on the turf status of the 8th and 9th? Are those two races still on soft grass?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Who moves up in the slop today for the Brooklyn? Eldaafer and Alcomo (logical off-track play) ??

Depending on the odds I would lean with one of the expected speed horses, Delosvientos is a tough call at only the 3-1ML, however he has a history of running well after being beaten double digits in his last race.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Mike

Can I get a verification on the turf status of the 8th and 9th? Are those two races still on soft grass?

8th was just taken off the turf...


Appears to be an increasing chance that Hill Prince 9th is coming off. Am in press box and will update as soon as there is any announcement...

[pointman]

The 8th is now off the turf and the scratches are now 1,2,6,9 in the 8th.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Kasept

I don't get him at all... Only if it comes off.

Dreadful day of weather seems a certainty today. Better today than tomorrow...



Please tell me you meant that you would rather have the rain today then tomorrow and not that tomorrow's forecast is even worse than today in New York.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Kasept

8th was just taken off the turf...


Appears to be an increasing chance that Hill Prince 9th is coming off. Am in press box and will update as soon as there is any announcement...

Steve, if you bet the late pk4 now and the race gets taken off turf and a horse you use scratches, do you automatically get a winner in that race or do you get post time favorite?

[pointman]

Originally Posted by CSC

Depending on the odds I would lean with one of the expected speed horses, Delosvientos is a tough call at only the 3-1ML, however he has a history of running well after being beaten double digits in his last race.

The slop helps speed, but it seems to me that Delosvientos may be a play against at a short price. The scratch of Lord Kipling helps a bit, but he is going to have to deal with Eldaafer and Fierce Wind and possibly Nite Light and may get dueled into submission much like his last. Think the dynamics help the 1 and 7 most and the 9 to some extent.

[Mike]

Thank you very much for the turf info. I've noticed Twinspires scratches and changes updates are slow.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Dreadful day of weather seems a certainty today. Better today than tomorrow...



Please tell me you meant that you would rather have the rain today then tomorrow and not that tomorrow's forecast is even worse than today in New York.

He meant it's better to have the rain today than tomorrow. NY weather tomorrow is nice and sunny. Does look like we'll have some soft footing on the sod tomorrow for whatever races stay on it.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by pointman

The slop helps speed, but it seems to me that Delosvientos may be a play against at a short price. The scratch of Lord Kipling helps a bit, but he is going to have to deal with Eldaafer and Fierce Wind and possibly Nite Light and may get dueled into submission much like his last. Think the dynamics help the 1 and 7 most and the 9 to some extent.

Good points, what we do know is Delosvientos is going to go for the lead no matter who goes with him, it's the only way he knows how to run, the question is will someone make a decision to go with him, if they do it will certainly be a suicide mission setting it up for someone to come later. Interesting race from a tactical point of view, one thing I have learned the hard way over the yrs never assume what a rider is going to do in a race.