6/11: Churchill (6th-9th)

[Kasept]

Belmont P6 was too tough to tame Wednesday producing a $32k Carryover, but aggressive posture in the P4 turned out to be unnecessary. Modestly-priced and logical winners paraded through the sequence with Coal Play's win in the feature, where I tried a single, the difference in the beat. Concept of the 5x3x1x5 play wasn't half bad though, as 15-1 Our Montana Dream was beaten a nostril in the skien starter by 9-2 Lucky Penney. Obviously a $32 horse in a P4 sequence is what you're always looking for. Hope you did OK..

Weather in NY is iffy, so despite the C/O, I'm sticking with the Churchill P4 which looked like fun when I printed PP's Monday.


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Wildandfabulous 3-1
Best Value: #6 Future Story 5-1
Next Best: #10 Hitch Your Wagon 6-1
Super Add: #8 Seismic Shift 8-1


7th: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating group... #2 Thiskyhasnolimit is a half to 3yo Ricoriatoa (Smarty Jones) who is 0 for 4 but has been on the board in 3 of those starts... #4 Red Rally is by first crop Reformer Rally (Dynaformer) and a half brother to Premium Tap (!)... #7 Backtalk is a $250k Smarty Jones red out of Apasionata Sonata making him a half to Bsharpsonata... #8 Dublin is the 5th Afleet Alex (0 for 4 so far) to hit the track, and note that Lukas is 12/2-3-2 with firsters since the beginning of the year... #10 Horst is the 6th Bwana Charlie (2 for 5 so far) to hit the track...

Most Likely: #7 Backtalk 6-1
Best Value: #10 Horst 12-1
Next Best: #2 Thiskyhasnolimit 5-1
Super Add: #8 Dublin 15-1


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Inkado 7-2
Best Value: #2 A. U. Miner 5-1
Next Best: #7 Au Moon 5-2
Super Add: #5 Squander 8-1


9th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #10 Stormin Yank 4-1
Next Best: #12 Malibu Martini 5-1
Exotics Use: #4 Snuck By 6-1
Best Value: #9 Seneca Summer 6-1
High 5 Play: #11 Montalvo 30-1


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-6
7: 2-5-6-7-8-10
8: 2-4
9: 1-4-9-10-11-12

2x6x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[lemoncrush]

Steve,
did you look at Hollywood at all today?
The final leg of the late pk 4 is a 40K md claimer for 2-year olds that includes a Mullins filly dropping from MSW, and Gomez climbs aboard. 6-1 ML.

I remember you talking a few months back about what an incredible win percentage Mullins has in claiming races when he tabs Gomez to ride.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Steve,
did you look at Hollywood at all today?
The final leg of the late pk 4 is a 40K md claimer for 2-year olds that includes a Mullins filly dropping from MSW, and Gomez climbs aboard. 6-1 ML.

I remember you talking a few months back about what an incredible win percentage Mullins has in claiming races when he tabs Gomez to ride.

According to Formulator, on the MSW to MDN CLM drop, Mullins-Gomez are 3/1-1-1. But overall in MDN CLM events, Gomez 10 of 22 for Mullins.

[tanner12oz]

top selection is out in the 7th....that change anything?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

top selection is out in the 7th....that change anything?

Not really.. Will add one to the P4 play.





CHURCHILL Program Changes for Thursday, June 11, 2009 (Day 30 of 45)

Last updated: 11:45 a.m. (EDT)

Main Track: Muddy
Turf: OFF TURF
Post time: 12:45 p.m. EDT


RACE 6 - LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER)

Jockey Overweight #2 Jenifee - +2
Jockey Overweight #4 Janou - +2
SCRATCH #5 Snicky
Jockey Overweight #6 Future Story - +2


RACE 7

SCRATCH #3 Mississippi Hippie
SCRATCH #12 Proud Moment
JOCKEY CHANGE - #11 Harley's Heat - Aldo Canchano
Late Workout #11 Harley's Heat - May 22, River Downs, 4 Furlongs in :50 2/5 breezing


RACE 8

Jockey Overweight #3 Empty Handed - +5
Jockey Overweight #4 Inkado - +1


RACE 9 - Z-5 SUPER HI-5

SCRATCH #6 Likely Candidate
SCRATCH #7 Arabian Cheetah
SCRATCH #8 Greeley's Angel
Jockey Change #9 Seneca Summer - Julien Leparoux

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Fascinating group... #2 Thiskyhasnolimit is a half to 3yo Ricoriatoa (Smarty Jones) who is 0 for 4 but has been on the board in 3 of those starts... #4 Red Rally is by first crop Reformer Rally (Dynaformer) and a half brother to Premium Tap (!)... #7 Backtalk is a $250k Smarty Jones red out of Apasionata Sonata making him a half to Bsharpsonata... #8 Dublin is the 5th Afleet Alex (0 for 4 so far) to hit the track, and note that Lukas is 12/2-3-2 with firsters since the beginning of the year... #10 Horst is the 6th Bwana Charlie (2 for 5 so far) to hit the track...

Not to mention that in human terms -- the first-timer #8 Dublin is the debuting #1 Prospective Union's uncle.

Neat race.

[declansharbor]

06/11/2009 14:55.01 PK4 MONMOUTH PARK 6 1/1,2,3,6/1,2,6/1,2,7

06/11/2009 14:57.43 PK4 CHURCHILL DOWNS 6 3,10/2,5,7/4/4,9,10,12

06/11/2009 15:00.18 PK4 CHURCHILL DOWNS 6 3,4,6/2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10/4,7/10

GL all!!!

[fantini33]

Playing Belmont Race #7

$5 Pick 3 --- 1 6 9 / 5 12 / 2 3 --- = $60 PAYS $181 X 2.5 = $452.50

[philcski]

Not sure why this 10 isn't taking any money. Worktab solid for good trainer and first-out owners. 22-1, I'll stab.

$10 WP 10
$3 EX's 10/2,5,6,7,8 2,5,6,7,8/10

[philcski]

Originally Posted by philcski

Not sure why this 10 isn't taking any money. Worktab solid for good trainer and first-out owners. 22-1, I'll stab.

$10 WP 10
$3 EX's 10/2,5,6,7,8 2,5,6,7,8/10

didn't run a lick. the Smarty/Bsharp brother ran them all down and looked REALLY good doing it- a full second faster than the 2YO allowance earlier in the card. My boy SJ really needs a stakes winner- he's been doing quite well, sort of under the radar, with something like 25 winners out of 43 horses to start, but hasn't had a 'big' one yet.

[hockey2315]

I don't understand why the 4 is 8-1. If he takes to the main he could be really dangerous.

[declansharbor]

Someone please tell me why I included KMc's pig over Orseno's horse in the last @ Monmouth? I should have known better.

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Playing Belmont Race #7

$5 Pick 3 --- 1 6 9 / 5 12 / 2 3 --- = $60

Seen this sequence on the screws so far 1ST2ND3RD/1ST2ND..
Need to bring it home #2= $452.50 #3= $1240

[philcski]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Seen this sequence on the screws so far 1ST2ND3RD/1ST2ND..
Need to bring it home #2= $452.50 #3= $1240

Hit it and get your pencils sharpened for tomorrow... looking like a double carry.

[hockey2315]

Good luck - pretty decent pay-offs considering the sequence.

[fantini33]

Can't believe the pick four payoffs with the winner of race #6 paying 7 & change... Can only think that the 12 in the eighth was a heavy duty single

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by philcski

Hit it and get your pencils sharpened for tomorrow... looking like a double carry.

Extra time with the 3:00 tip.

[fantini33]

I'll take it..See you guys tomorrow.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Playing Belmont Race #7

$5 Pick 3 --- 1 6 9 / 5 12 / 2 3 --- = $60 PAYS $181 X 2.5 = $452.50

Very nice.

[XIIPointStables]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Steve,
did you look at Hollywood at all today?
The final leg of the late pk 4 is a 40K md claimer for 2-year olds that includes a Mullins filly dropping from MSW, and Gomez climbs aboard. 6-1 ML.

I remember you talking a few months back about what an incredible win percentage Mullins has in claiming races when he tabs Gomez to ride.

Winner, pays $8.80. Nice work! And a $6, $6, $6, $8 P4 returns over $300.