Are you ready for SA Showvivor?

[Dunbar]

Back to work! Just 7 people dropped out Sunday, and I think most of those were from forgetting to pick. I am now ranked 231st of the 231 survivors. No one else has as few as my 2 winners from the 13 races so far. I'm oddly proud of that.

The Showvivor webpage is screwed up today. Horses in the first 2 races are each listed twice. If you pick from those races, it lists your pick twice, too. They might decide it's too confusing and end up cancelling for today.

There are 3 scratches in the 3rd and 2 in the 6th, leaving 6 horses in each of those races, as well as in the first 2 races. My early pick is Tribal Face in the 1st.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Probably going to go with Barbaric, dropping in class in the 4th race against an extremely weak 7-horse field.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

There are 3 scratches in the 3rd and 2 in the 6th, leaving 6 horses in each of those races, as well as in the first 2 races.

2 scratches in the 7th reduce that field to 6 horses, also.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Probably going to go with Barbaric, dropping in class in the 4th race against an extremely weak 7-horse field.

Are you seeing the same double listings in the first 2 races that I am?

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

Probably going to go with Barbaric, dropping in class in the 4th race against an extremely weak 7-horse field.

You have a great chance to move forward if Tribal Face doesn't show. Here is the way people picked today: (from the oaktree.com website)

148 people selected #02 Tribal Face in race 1

72 people selected #06 Ranger Heartley in race 2

64 people selected #04 Cabo Chico in race 1

51 people selected #05 Barbaric in race 4

17 people selected #09 Coatcheck Girl in race 5

6 people selected #01A Spool's Gold in race 3

6 people selected #01A Spool in race 3

3 people selected #02 Obrigado in race 7

3 people selected #04 Pick to Click in race 8

2 people selected #02 Swiss Exploit in race 2

2 people selected #06 Twenty Hawks in race 1

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here is the way people picked today: (from the oaktree.com website)

148 people selected #02 Tribal Face in race 1

72 people selected #06 Ranger Heartley in race 2

64 people selected #04 Cabo Chico in race 1

51 people selected #05 Barbaric in race 4

17 people selected #09 Coatcheck Girl in race 5

6 people selected #01A Spool's Gold in race 3

6 people selected #01A Spool in race 3

3 people selected #02 Obrigado in race 7

3 people selected #04 Pick to Click in race 8

2 people selected #02 Swiss Exploit in race 2

2 people selected #06 Twenty Hawks in race 1

Those numbers can't be right because there are only 231 players left. They have almost certainly counted picks from the 1st 2 races twice. (if you halve the numbers for the 1st two races, the total picks is exactly 231.)

How hard is it to do this right, anyway?

Anyway, I made it past today. It looks like 33 people were knocked out in the 1st race.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Are you seeing the same double listings in the first 2 races that I am?

Yes, I saw the same double listings in the first couple races.

Good job with your pick in the 1st race. I originally had Tribal Face but switched to my pick in the 4th race since the 1st race seemed to have a more competitive field.

[mbahadur]

With only 12 racing days left in the meet, the tiebreaker looks definitely like it will come into play. The tiebreaker is the highest show payoff before the Breeders Cup. I will have to keep my eyes open for a potential high show payoff when selecting horses and any bridge jumper opportunities.

[gorvy]

A quick review of the website reveals that at the current pace about 24 players will remain at the end. So, I wouldn't panic just yet. Let the others panic and see where you are the last 3 days, which is relevant for the second tie breaker.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by mbahadur

With only 12 racing days left in the meet, the tiebreaker looks definitely like it will come into play. The tiebreaker is the highest show payoff before the Breeders Cup. I will have to keep my eyes open for a potential high show payoff when selecting horses and any bridge jumper opportunities.

I count 14 days left in the meet. Only the next 11 will count for the first tie-breaker. (But more than one person will have to survive the next 14 betting days before the tie-breaker would go into effect.)

Originally Posted by gorvy

A quick review of the website reveals that at the current pace about 24 players will remain at the end. So, I wouldn't panic just yet. Let the others panic and see where you are the last 3 days, which is relevant for the second tie breaker.

The average rate of loss per day since the 5th day is 11%. (Before that, large numbers of people probably lost by forgetting to pick.) If we project 11% forward another 14 days, there would still be 38 people left. Of course, that's a highly variable estimate. I don't think one of the top 2 picks has failed to show so far. Something like that would decimate the number of players.

I'll probably start looking for higher payoffs a couple of days before the BC, unless the # of remaining players is like 3 or 4.

--Dunbar

[gorvy]

ah, didn't catch that not all events count toward the first tie breaker system. Your strategy seems sound, waiting for now and seeing where you are just before the 1st tiebreaker closes. What a convuluted tie breaker system. You can't complain too much since its a free game, but when the goal is survival, why reward somebody for getting a lucky pick that no one else has as your first breaker? Why not reward the player that consistently hits the harder choices by simply totalling up all the show prices. Then perhaps going to # of wins, then # of places, then price of wins etc. This is why I wish these contests were long enough to avoid the need for tie breakers in the first place. Oh well.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by gorvy

ah, didn't catch that not all events count toward the first tie breaker system. Your strategy seems sound, waiting for now and seeing where you are just before the 1st tiebreaker closes. What a convuluted tie breaker system. You can't complain too much since its a free game, but when the goal is survival, why reward somebody for getting a lucky pick that no one else has as your first breaker? Why not reward the player that consistently hits the harder choices by simply totalling up all the show prices. Then perhaps going to # of wins, then # of places, then price of wins etc. This is why I wish these contests were long enough to avoid the need for tie breakers in the first place. Oh well.

I agree with using the sum of all show prices as the tie-breaker. That makes the most sense to me. They could also use that for the ongoing ranking, instead of # of wins.

Or maybe they should start everyone with a $100 hypothetical bankroll, and rank us by how much bankroll we have (assuming total reinvestment).

I'm still in "last place", btw! My winning selection yesterday did me no good. I'm now the only one of 193 remaining players with just 3 wins.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Day 15

38 people were knocked out yesterday, leaving 193 of us.

There are two scratches in the 1st race, leaving just 4 horses. (I liked Heir Joe before he was scratched.) I'll take Ishmael.

--Dunbar

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

There are two scratches in the 1st race, leaving just 4 horses. (I liked Heir Joe before he was scratched.) I'll take Ishmael.

I also took Ishmael, who fortunately for us did not fall or lose the jockey when clipping heels right after the start.

[Dunbar]

Day 16, 141 players left.

An astounding 52 people were knocked out yesterday, the most since Oct 12. Most of them were the victim of the heavy fav in the 2nd race finishing 4th.

96% of the players who started are gone. Equity is now $5000/141 = $35/person. (Actually a little more than that, because 1st place also gets a free trip to Las Vegas for 2.)

I'm probably going with Flashing in the 5-horse 2nd race today.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Day 16, 141 players left.

An astounding 52 people were knocked out yesterday, the most since Oct 12. Most of them were the victim of the heavy fav in the 2nd race finishing 4th.

96% of the players who started are gone. Equity is now $5000/141 = $35/person. (Actually a little more than that, because 1st place also gets a free trip to Las Vegas for 2.)

I'm probably going with Flashing in the 5-horse 2nd race today.

Flash! That's "Flashover", not "Flashing".

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

I'm out, as Flashover finished a not-that-close 4th. 95 others will be exiting with me. I hope mbahadur picked a different horse!

--Dunbar

[PeteMugg]

Tough luck, Dunbar. I always hope a DTer will win these things.

Great job.

[mbahadur]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm out, as Flashover finished a not-that-close 4th. 95 others will be exiting with me. I hope mbahadur picked a different horse!

Despite the fact that I swore off taking any more horses running on the downhill sprint course, I also took Flashover since it was a 5-horse field and she had a very good record over the course. I don't think the slow pace helped but you could see on paper that there was no speed in the field. I was wavering between Flashover and the horse that won the 1st race. I think Joel Rosario has also taken a few others out of this contest prior to today.

I need to stick to my turf sprint rule in future Showvivor contests at Santa Anita.

It was fun while it lasted. Thank you for your contest recaps and insight.

[gorvy]

tough luck, I was hoping one of you would win it.