11/6 (OSA): 26th Breeders' Cup-Day 1 (1st-9th)

[Kasept]

With preparations complete, attentions turn to wagering strategies for Cup Weekend. Before that, a review of last year is yet again in order. It's noteworthy I think, that favorites in 2008 exited the Cup 14/4-3-2-3. Only Sixties Icon (Marathon) and Well Armed (Dirt Mile) failed to get into the superfecta among horses that left the gate as the public choice. In addition, an assorted combination of at least two of the first, second and/or third choices were in supers in 9 of the 14 Cup events, and in the trifecta an astounding 7 times in the 14 races.

In other words, don't be so quick to blanket assume that the Cup is a bomb-in-every-slot free for all, because in many instances, keying off well bet candidates that have high expectations for success can be highly profitable. When 5-1 third choice Forever Together and 7-2 second choice Wait a While sandwiched 49-1 Sealy Hill in the 2008 Filly and Mare Turf, the tri came back $996 for $1. Also enforcing the "it only takes one price horse" theory, was the Early P4 on Cup Saturday. Players who had Desert Code in the Turf Sprint at 36-1, only needed to find 6-1 Albertus Maximus, 3-2 Goldikova and 7-2 Midshipman to cash for $6,300.

Super fans should also take note of the bonus payouts when short prices fill the top slots and a bomb anchors the quad. Donativum ($5.80), Westphalia ($3.30) and Coronet of a Baron ($6.20) were 1-2-3 in the Juvenile Turf last year for a modest $153 triple. But including 29-1 City Style as your 4th resulted in a $3,025 superfecta for $1. Similarly, the three most obvious horses in the '08 Filly & Mare Sprint -- Ventura, Indian Blessing, Zaftig -- brought back $48 as a tri but $733 with not-hard-to-fathom Miraculous Miss (38-1) fourth.

So, in advance of Friday and Saturday's cornucopia of wagering, be sure to remember that the "best" horses are still going to heavily factor in many slots of each of the Cup exotics... Sprinkle in plenty of pricey longshots that you believe are going to run well, and you should be able to catch the one or two bonanza payoffs that make Breeders' Cup Weekend profitable and fun. Remember not to get down on yourself if you miss early. It's a long two days with tons of opportunities. And if things don't go great, the Gr. II Las Palmas nightcap Friday is an appealing 'get out' chance!

I hope you've been enjoying At the Races coverage from Santa Anita, and have a great Day 1 of the Breeders' Cup!


BREEDERS' CUP - OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Royal Punisher 5-1 10th
Best Value: #6 Deal Breaker 8-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Joshua's Dream 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 On Fire 9-2 3rd


2nd: OC/C, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Miss McCall 6-1 WON
Best Value: #2 She's Very Rare 20-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Halfaponderosa 12-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Barbara's Love 9-2 4th


3rd: 2nd Breeders' Cup Marathon, 3+, 14f (P6, P3, Jockey Challenge, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Father Time 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Cloudy's Knight 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Nite Light 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Man of Iron 8-1 WON


4th: 2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Coolmore Euro Lillie Langtry has starlet look and moniker, but doesn't strike fear either. Adored Romans' Tapitsfly from first glance this summer, and she's done nothing wrong here, but Pletcher-Pompa Speightstown miss has best chance if 7th and 8th panel suits. Shuman bomb Potosina looks versatile and ran top flight race over tough tundra and figures to save ground all the way..

Most Likely: #4 Rose Catherine 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Tapitsfly 8-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Lillie Langtry 3-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Potosina 20-1 7th


<$100 P4 Play:

1: 5-6-7-9
2: 2-11
3: 3-4-5-9
4: 4-8-10

4x2x4x3 = $96

$1 Pick 4 (6-11-9-10) 4 Correct Paid $3,450.50


5th: 26th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

One of the weekend's most interesting races as well as a juicy wagerfest. Want to use everyone exiting the Alcibiades and Breen-Hall filly Bickersons who looks like she may explode every time she steps foot on the track. Looking ahead, division has makings of some serious competition as this entire group looks like a roomful of Tri Delts after you've knocked back 3-4 frosties..

Most Likely: #4 Beautician 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bickersons 20-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Negligee 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 She Be Wild 8-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Zilva 30-1 7th


6th: 11th Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, F&M-3+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Amazing day of opportunities continue for Augustin Stables (George Strawbridge Jr.) as another defending Cup winner tries for a repeat. She has been more beatable this season though, and enigmatic Mott mare DYNAFORCE merits respect while offering value. Juddmonte, who wins this event like clockwork, sends solid pair as well..

Most Likely: #2 Forever Together 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Dynaforce 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Midday 4-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Visit 10-1 4th


7th: 3rd Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Short but nice cast facing the defending champ who comes into this as good or better than a year ago. Would be a wonderful tonic for the ailing Bobby Frankel..

Most Likely: #9 VENTURA 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Sara Louise 9-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Informed Decision 5-2 WON
Super Add: #8 Seventh Street 4-1 8th


8th: 26th Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (Classic-Distaff Double, DD, Super, Super High 5)

Admit that this race has grown more confusing for me as the week has worn on. Careless Jewel, whom I offered up for one of the year's best scores this year in the Delaware Oaks and whom I anticipated as being imposing here, appears vulnerable on several fronts..

Most Likely: #7 Music Note 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Careless Jewel 2-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Cocoa Beach 8-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lethal Heat 20-1 7th
High 5 Play: #2 Life Is Sweet 8-1 WON


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 4-5-8-10
6: 2-6-7
7: 2-7-9
8: 1-7

4x3x3x2 = $96


9th: 40th Las Palmas (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Wonderful coda to exciting day with 20-1 Drysdale filly singing like a mermaid to Argonauts..

Best Value: #4 Cat by the Tale 20-1 3rd
Most Likely: #9 Quiet Meadow 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Closeout 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Teamgeist 8-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-7
7: 2-7-9
8: 1-7
9: 3-4-6-9

3x3x2x4 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Sightseek]

Taking a stand against Mastery.

Just a note, but did you mean to put the 8 in your pick 4 in that race?

[fpsoxfan]

Marathon 3-6-2-5-8

Juvy Filly Turf 8-9-4-11

Juvy Filly 8-7-1-11

Filly & Mare Turf 6-2-1-7

Filly & Mare Sprint 2-9-7-8-6

Ladies Classic 5-7-3-1

Good Luck. Have Fun!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Taking a stand against Mastery.

Just a note, but did you mean to put the 8 in your pick 4 in that race?

Fixed the 8 (to 9). Thx Nic. Yeah... Father Time looks better here right now, and Cloudy's Knight is aglow.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Marathon : Man of Iron - Mastery - Nite Light
Juv. Fillies Turf : Lillie Langtry - Junia Tepzia - House of Grace
Juv. Fillies : Negligee - Blind Luck - Zilva
F&M Turf : Midday - Forever Together - Magical Fantasy
F&M Sprint : Ventura (best bet) - Informed Decision - Sara Louise
Ladies Classic : Careless Jewel - Music Note - Muska

[chucklestheclown]

Thank you for a great analysis.

[Antitrust32]

who won marathon?

[slotdirt]

Man of Iron. He did it for Jazil.

[mclem0822]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

who won marathon?

Man of Iron, just nipped Cloudy's Knight who ran a helluva race.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Man of Iron. He did it for Jazil.

lol thanks.. i picked him in my office contest LOL

well leaving work now to go home and watch! Enjoy everyone!

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Man of Iron. He did it for Jazil and DrugS.

FTFY

[chucklestheclown]

That has got to hurt. Good stab though.