1/16: Gulfstream (5th-10th); Santa Anita ($70k C/O)

[Kasept]

Since coming within a horse of the Wednesday Gulfstream C/O hit, have promptly picked 2 totally obvious winners in the next 13 races while not remotely close in the other 11. Not sure if the poor play is a backlash from Wednesday miss or old fashioned lousy handicapping. It is notable that the Hallandale strip has become rather glib with the increase in the South Florida temperatures. Best graded stakes action is at Santa Anita today with the San Rafael, Santa Ynez and San Fernando, as well as a $70k carryover, while the grassy and overflow Dania Beach and Marshua's River highlight the GP slate.


GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MSW, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Very curious MSW lawn route featuring handful of multi-try losers and smattering of less suspect fresh faces. #11 Ya Gotta Have Soul is a half brother of Tale of Ekati, and Perfect Drift full bro #12 Ambergris Caye makes his 2nd start here. J. Jerkens' #13 (AE) Dynamoor would be a use if he were to draw in. Tough call but will play around with some prices for fun..

Best Value: #12 Ambergris Caye 12-1 8th
Most Likely: #13 Dynamoor 5-2 WON
Next Best: #8 Forgive Me 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Fearless 10-1 6th


6th: 2nd Dania Beach, 3yo, 1m-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Crazy fun betting race.. Demand value because this is wide open..

Best Value: #1 City Trooper 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #7 Bim Bim 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Raging Wit 10-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Call Shot 12-1 3rd


7th: CLM/N23L, 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Invisible Star 6-1 10th
Most Likely: #5 Polished 3-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Mogul Maker 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 South Fork Lodge 6-1 2nd


8th: 8th Marshua's River, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Scolara 4-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Lomaki 15-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Backseat Rhythm 6-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Romacaca 8-1 2nd-DH


9th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Obligingly 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Broken Home 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Mighty Score 5-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Todd Got Even 6-1 WON


10th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (Super)

Best Value: #3 Prince of Wealth 12-1 5th
Most Likely: #10 Pinckney Hill 5-2 WON
Next Best: #4 Picou 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Sincero 20-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-7-9
8: 1-4-5-7-12-13
9: 6-7
10: 3-4-10

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



SANTA ANITA


PRE-SCRATCHES


4th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Heroi Do Bafra 3-1 2nd-DH
Best Value: #1 Absolute Glory 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Changing 7-2 WON
Super Add: #8 Mr. Wolverine 4-1 5th


5th: 59th Santa Ynez (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating and deep edition of this soph filly standard..

Most Likely: #5 She's Funomenal 9-5 5th
Next Best: #2 Franny Freud 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Switch 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Amen Hallelujah 3-1 WON


6th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cavanal 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Premiere Flyer 12-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Major General 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 LATE SCR


7th: 58th San Fernando (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Papa Clem 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Mythical Power 4-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Mr. Hot Stuff 8-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Rendezvous 9-2 3rd


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 SURFER GIRL 9-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Bella Roja 10-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Oui Say Oui 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Rosey de Megeve 6-1 4th


9th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #13 We Are One 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Sarabella Mia 5-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Glory Forever 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Sombre 5-1 4th
High 5 Play: #8 Sister Lucy 15-1 3rd


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-4-5-8
5: 2-5
6: 1-3
7: 4-6
8: 7
9: 3-5-13

4x2x2x2x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192



<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 3-4-5-6
8: 6-7-9
9: 3-5-13

2x4x3x3 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[dellinger63]

Steve, in GP 5th trainer of the 1 Storm Galileo, Nuno Santos. Is that the same guy who exercised for Frankel and on Azeri? Makes sense cause this one is bred and owned by Paulson fam? Great day of racing today.

[Kasept]

GP SCR/CHG'S

Race: 5 Changes Time Posted
#11 Ya Gotta Have Soul Scratched - Trainer 10:15 AM ET
#14 Yaris Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:15 AM ET
#15 Harris Tweed Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:15 AM ET

Race: 6 Changes Time Posted
#8 Thunder Brew Scratched - Trainer 10:15 AM ET
#12 Strike the Tiger Scratched - Trainer 10:23 AM ET
#13 Trippo Scratched - Trainer 10:15 AM ET
#15 Citrus Kid Scratched - Main-Track-Only 10:15 AM ET

Race: 9 Changes Time Posted
#1 Star of David Scratched - Re-entered 10:15 AM ET
#5 Volador Scratched - Re-entered 10:15 AM ET
#9 Another Success Scratched - Re-entered 10:15 AM ET
#10 Valentino's Trick Scratched - Trainer 10:15 AM ET
#12 Mr. Sluggo Scratched - Trainer 10:15 AM ET
#13 Grand Captain Scratched - Re-entered 10:15 AM ET

Race: 10 Changes Time Posted
#1 Don'twait Toolong No longer a Coupled Entry 11:19 AM ET
#1A Headache Scratched - Also-Eligible 11:19 AM ET
#13 Gabriel's Hill Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:15 AM ET
#14 Free Country Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:15 AM ET
#15 Just Playin Around Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:15 AM ET

[rgustafson]

Steve,
Just want to thank you for the time and effort you put into your daily selections and also for having the candor to speak up when things aren't going so well, such as today's post and the other day when your selections in one race were the last four finishers. Any of us who have played this game for awhile know there can be good days and bad. Your good ones are many and far out weigh any minor setbacks that occaisionly occur. Keep firing!!

[Kasept]

God damn Shug... 5yo mare keeps getting better. 18-1 for her 5th straight win. Arrgghh...

[the_fat_man]

Fine ride by Leparoux. Why bother taking Wilson off?

Yet another turf assout at GP for Shug.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Fine ride by Leparoux. Why bother taking Wilson off?

Yet another turf assout at GP for Shug.

Fats,

Wasn't watching Lady Shake... What was up with her voyage?

I thought I had something going with Lomaki...

[Kasept]

SA P6 pool pushing towards $500,000...

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Fats,

Wasn't watching Lady Shake... What was up with her voyage?

I thought I had something going with Lomaki...

Lomaki knocked LS off stride in the stretch, but that wasn't her only disadvantage. . . seemed to me like Leparoux waited too long to get her going, but I'd have to watch it again.

How that Shug horse even hit the board is beyond me.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Lomaki knocked LS off stride in the stretch, but that wasn't her only disadvantage. . . seemed to me like Leparoux waited too long to get her going, but I'd have to watch it again.

How that Shug horse even hit the board is beyond me.

Your clearly tilting.Tighten it up man.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Lomaki knocked LS off stride in the stretch, but that wasn't her only disadvantage. . . seemed to me like Leparoux waited too long to get her going, but I'd have to watch it again.

How that Shug horse even hit the board is beyond me.

SHUG has the BIGGEST ASS when it comes to turf races at GP. The seas parted for his piece of **** when she entered. On the other hand, Leparoux was biding his time, taking forever to get out. Even on that course, with a clear run LS wins for FUN.

As it was, the 'knocking' incident was enough to cost her the race.

[mm1019]

Steve what don't you like about the 2)viscount in the 7th and the 3)once upon A grace in the 8th... she has good speed going in sprints and down the hill

[Kasept]

While I am a noted Live Oak homer, that's a crazy price Prince of Wealth (21-1). I'm sticking with the ones I laid out this morning: 3-10-4-2

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by mm1019

Steve what don't you like about the 2)viscount in the 7th and the 3)once upon A grace in the 8th... she has good speed going in sprints and down the hill

There's always plenty of eligible types down the hill... That 7 (Surfer Girl) just reached out at me especially. Hammerle and Gary Young taught me to look for horses that are successful going 7f-8.5f as down the hill prospects, and her first try at it was excellent. I think she's ultra tough today.

Viscount gets a class test in the Fernando. Nothing he's done up to now says he can run with the top ones here. Must move forward considerably to contend.

Good luck!! Fun card I thought...

[mm1019]

Thanks as always for your insights good luck steve tough late quad and I just caught a bad beat $$$ in the Santa Ynez with franny freud after hitting the early pick 4 which was a gift with the single conveyance...

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by mm1019

Thanks as always for your insights good luck steve tough late quad and I just caught a bad beat $$$ in the Santa Ynez with franny freud after hitting the early pick 4 which was a gift with the single conveyance...

I would have taken the NY bred too. Ran a nice race, as did the Sadler 2nd timer... What was She's Funomenal's excuse?

[jefff777]

really confident on surfer girl huh. me too.

[mm1019]

Franny freud ran her eyeballs out just got caught late by maybe a real good 1 turn sprint type who ran well in that blind luck race.I guess she funomenal got hit with the class hike...

[pointman]

Steve, jumping aboard your SA late for some action, good luck!

[lemoncrush]

Taking a small stab at the Santa Anita late pk 4

6th
3 - Cavanal (single)

7th
1) Smart Bid
3) Rendevous
2) Viscount
(No interest in Papa Clem or Mythical Power here)

8th
7) Surfer Girl
13) Ashton Girl
9) Bella Roja

9th)
13) We are One
2 True Gatia
5) Sarabella Mia

$27 for $1

Good luck