Dubai Carnival 2010 Discussion

[PatCummings]

Alrighty gang - more than just the contest - here is more room to talk Dubai. Meydan gets going on Thursday.

I have my analysis for the first night posted.

http://dubairacenight.com/2010-dubai...race-analysis/

[NoChanceToDance]

Pat,

Do you think the new Tapeta surface will play to the strengths of horse that like to race up with the pace? I'm going to give it a watching brief as far as parting with cash is concerned for the first meeting maybe the second, too.

I'm concerned that during the first 2/3 days of racing, the pace horses will be favoured quite considerably. Now when I say 'pace horses' I don't really mean horses that are likely to go off too fast, more meaning horses that will sit just behind the pace. I'm going to be fearing horses, who are likely to get an easy lead and are able to dictate their own pace.

Hold up horses could struggle to make up the ground on the new surface. The track is "similar" to Santa Anita with a shorter straight, and hold up horses might need to start their runs sooner than expected, which might catch a few out.

Mike De Kock has gone on record saying that his filly in the 1,000 Guineas trial is his best younger filly and a cut above the filly that was a champion 2yo last year. His main aim for her is the UAE Derby, and if that's the case, she ought to be winning tomorrow if she is fit enough.

[PatCummings]

I love the Saudis tomorrow in the Guineas trial. From what I've been told, the trial races went to the pace horses, but that could've been for a number of reasons. Pace might hold better, but I know Dettori thinks being off the pace will be best.

Betting - yeah, I'll be treading lightly for sure until we see how it plays out.

If De Kock's filly Raihana wins the 1000 Guineas prep, I will be slightly surprised. Comparing her form and times and the like to others he's had in similar situations, well, there just isn't much comparison (in my opinion). The Saudis have recency edge and quality times when comparing to other Saudi races over the same trips at those distances (yes, I've spent too much time looking at Saudi race results).

That's my take.

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

Pat,

Do you think the new Tapeta surface will play to the strengths of horse that like to race up with the pace? I'm going to give it a watching brief as far as parting with cash is concerned for the first meeting maybe the second, too.

I'm concerned that during the first 2/3 days of racing, the pace horses will be favoured quite considerably. Now when I say 'pace horses' I don't really mean horses that are likely to go off too fast, more meaning horses that will sit just behind the pace. I'm going to be fearing horses, who are likely to get an easy lead and are able to dictate their own pace.

Hold up horses could struggle to make up the ground on the new surface. The track is "similar" to Santa Anita with a shorter straight, and hold up horses might need to start their runs sooner than expected, which might catch a few out.

Mike De Kock has gone on record saying that his filly in the 1,000 Guineas trial is his best younger filly and a cut above the filly that was a champion 2yo last year. His main aim for her is the UAE Derby, and if that's the case, she ought to be winning tomorrow if she is fit enough.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I love the Saudis tomorrow in the Guineas trial. From what I've been told, the trial races went to the pace horses, but that could've been for a number of reasons. Pace might hold better, but I know Dettori thinks being off the pace will be best.

Betting - yeah, I'll be treading lightly for sure until we see how it plays out.

If De Kock's filly Raihana wins the 1000 Guineas prep, I will be slightly surprised. Comparing her form and times and the like to others he's had in similar situations, well, there just isn't much comparison (in my opinion). The Saudis have recency edge and quality times when comparing to other Saudi races over the same trips at those distances (yes, I've spent too much time looking at Saudi race results).

That's my take.

Don't take Raihana's form too literally. She came back quite sore on both of her starts (hence why she never raced in graded company at home) and De Kock wanted to give her a bit of time before going to Dubai. He's pretty confident that she is his best filly that he's got.

I Like the Saudi horse at the bottom of the card, with two easy wins, but I'm not convinced either race took much winning.

I'm very surprised you never gave a mention of Red Rock Canyon in race 6. I know he's not the easiest horse. He has all the ability in the world but rarely shows it on the track. However, the change of stable and change of racing, could just light him up. Remember he has finished placed in many graded races for Aidan O'Brien when used in a pacemaking role and some of that form is the best on show in this race by some distance. Not only that, but he is being allowed to race with only 54kg on his back, easily the best handicapped horse in the race, and if he decided to try his hardest, he will be very difficult to beat.

Khor Dubai was actually one of the first I discounted. The form in England isn't very good. The 3rd behind Gitano Hernando somewhat flatters him, as that rival has improved leaps and bounds since then and the win in America was very much a surprise and probably flatters him, too. Khor Dubai was often seen in very moderate nurserys and handicaps on the AW, where one or two were often too good. The step up in distance is also against the horse, and I'd be very surpised if Khor Dubai was good enough here against some good handicappers and graded placed horses.

However, a very good read (as always) on your website, I agree with you regarding Star Crowned, who is always seen at his best when kept fresh. However, the Godolphin pair from Australia could be a class above the field if on-song?

Good luck.

[PatCummings]

I think Khor Dubai's biggest issue is the distance - otherwise, Gitano Hernando didn't improve "leaps and bounds" since then - he won a single race. I think it helps his form. I'm not overwhelmed by any in that race.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

I think Khor Dubai's biggest issue is the distance - otherwise, Gitano Hernando didn't improve "leaps and bounds" since then - he won a single race. I think it helps his form. I'm not overwhelmed by any in that race.

Gitano Hernando was over about 60-70% fit that day, so he did improve a lot after that, and he was given an exceptional ride at Santa Anita when he was far from expected to win. Cesare disappointed badly in the race on the AW, and an unfit Gitano Hernando benefited.

If you've got it right, I'll hold my hands up, but with proven good level handicappers and group horses in that race, I cannot see anything but Khor Dubai being outclassed over a distance that will already stretch him.

[PatCummings]

Could be...average field here too - so who knows. Art of War is nothing special. Question is how good the Godolphin horse goes.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

Could be...average field here too - so who knows. Art of War is nothing special. Question is how good the Godolphin horse goes.

It is a real head scratcher, for sure. I've just made my selections, and I've tried to make sure the horses I have picked tend to race to the fore in their races as I think they could hold an advantage tomorrow, even if that's not the case for further days at Meydan.

The track staff are likely to air on the side of caution for the first race day and it will probably ride a fair amount slower than the dirt of Nad Al Sheba (although it wouldn't be the first time if Godolphin get their way with how the track is riding )

We shall see. I'm quite keen on Tartan Gigha, as he is usually very competitive in this sort of race, he tries hard, usally dictates his own pace and he is trained on the Tapeta surface at home, so that should hold no fears.

[brockguy]

One horse I am looking forward to seeing race is Beauchamp Xeres. While his form doesnt look too inspiring, his 3 all weather races at the end of last year may have been a few runs too many. Distance should suit and Smullen should give him a more forceful ride than Spencer or Hughes have previously.

Also on the back of his great year last year, bin Shafya will be very interesting to watch this year with his horses. All of them (with the possible exception of Cafe Racer) have a touch of class about them and Im intrigued by how Topclas will fare as he was a decent 3yo in France last year.

[PatCummings]

My personal projection, Brock, is that Bin Shafya backs up. Pop and stop. Over under on Carnival wins - 3.5

Just a thought. His local season has been awful, granted, running lesser company. Just a hunch, so to speak.

[PatCummings]

Some pictures from angles not seen before - posted on the site...

http://dubairacenight.com/meydan-is-...viewing-picks/

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by PatCummings

My personal projection, Brock, is that Bin Shafya backs up. Pop and stop. Over under on Carnival wins - 3.5

Just a thought. His local season has been awful, granted, running lesser company. Just a hunch, so to speak.

Yep you could well be right, his pre carnival form is patchy at best, but seeing his ridiculous and quite franky dodgy wins in the Carnival last year, Ill be keeping him on my side..

[brockguy]

that Raihana defo looks a smart prospect. Ive only seen the race once, but she was in a tricky position turning for home and won very snugly at the end..

[PatCummings]

Well, so much for the thought DeKock wouldn't start fast - absolute smackers early on.

[NoChanceToDance]

She's a tool, Brock. De Kock hasn't stopped going on about her since she broke her maiden. Considering she was always wide and looking in trouble at half way, that was some performance. When you consider that many of the other winners have been front rank and on the inside, it makes it look even better.

Now, is it just me or (apart from Whispering Gallery) has Dettori given the rest of his mount shockers? Got them all in a good position early and allowed them to drift back in behind horses before 'getting after them'. We already know it's hard to come from well off the pace. To me, the rides he has given on all bar Whispering Gallery (who always looked likely to be given an easy lead of a soft gallop) have been pretty poor.

I should have napped him I guess, as he was a very progressive handicapper, was always to race from the front and stayed further than this. It was all there to see, but I wanted to nap something at a bigger price. Tartan Gigha is a horse to take note of though. He's a horse who likes to lead usually, but an average break from a bad gate meant he had to reined back. He stayed on as well as could be expected on the wide outside, and will improve for the run. Watch out for him in a similar race if given a better draw which will enable him to race on the front end.

[NoChanceToDance]

That was strange. Gloria De Campeo always up in the front rank, nothing really seems to be closing from behind and then Forgotten Voice comes from another country.

Midshipman will struggle to win in the top company based on that. The winner usually improves massive amounts on his first run of the Carnival and It's now hard to envisage Midshipman beating that rival when they meet under the same conditions again.

[brockguy]

yep was a strange race to me - it may be that Gloria is a little but more forward this year than other years. and i thought they crawled home. Where to go next with Midshipman. If I was in charge, Id drop him down to 6f and try his hand at sprinting. He does have enough pace I think.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by brockguy

yep was a strange race to me - it may be that Gloria is a little but more forward this year than other years. and i thought they crawled home. Where to go next with Midshipman. If I was in charge, Id drop him down to 6f and try his hand at sprinting. He does have enough pace I think.

That's what I was wondering.

I can't see him beating Gloria over this trip. Maybe he'll improve for the run? But it didn't look like it was fitness that was the issue today.

One horse, which did look badly in need of the run was Bab Al Salam, although I thought Frankie gave him a shocker after being in a good position early, he let him drift back amongst horses and then was never likely to get back into the race.

Tartan Gigha is definitely one for my virtual notebook, and ofcourse Forgotten Voice, but he is likely to be underpriced next time after that performance.

Raihana is destined for the top over the Carnival, had things against her today and still ran out a cosy winner. De Kock rarely tells lies and I've never heard him speak so confidently about a horse before this one.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by NoChanceToDance

That was strange. Gloria De Campeo always up in the front rank, nothing really seems to be closing from behind and then Forgotten Voice comes from another country.

Midshipman will struggle to win in the top company based on that. The winner usually improves massive amounts on his first run of the Carnival and It's now hard to envisage Midshipman beating that rival when they meet under the same conditions again.

Midshipman probably needs his Lasix.

US race commentators were noting how long the stretch is, compared to the US tracks, which tend to be around 1000-1100 feet, or around 333 yards, probably around 310 meters, 1.6f. This includes the 9f and 12f tracks, but not 8f tracks Churchill Downs (1234 ft) and Fair Grounds (1346 ft.). South American dirt competitors normally run on home straights twice as long.

[NoChanceToDance]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Midshipman probably needs his Lasix.

US race commentators were noting how long the stretch is, compared to the US tracks, which tend to be around 1000-1100 feet, or around 333 yards, probably around 310 meters, 1.6f. This includes the 9f and 12f tracks, but not 8f tracks Churchill Downs (1234 ft) and Fair Grounds (1346 ft.). South American dirt competitors normally run on home straights twice as long.

I was told the straight was shorter than that of Santa Anita's?