STAKES: NTRA 4 & More

[Kasept]

Full day of Stakes action and we're late getting out our thoughts...


NTRA PICK 4


BEL 9: Kelso-Gr. II, 1m-T (4:15p)

1. #3 Ashkal Way 5-2: May miss Gomez; can adjust to pace
2. #6 Free Thinking 6-1: Danner 5yo looks like a fit 2nd off break
A. #2 Art Master 3-1: Frankel 23% 1st NA; Note slick a.m. move 9/1
B. #8 Friendly Island 8-1: NY-bred from Pletcher big threat if lawn liker


TP 8: KY Cup Classic-Gr. II, 9f (4:42p)

1. #7 Perfect Drift 5-2: Change to Leparoux can make big difference
2. #6 Alumni Hall 8-1: Veteran had race over surface; Goes 3rd off break
A. #5 Greeley's Galaxy 4-1: New barn has had a chance to feel him out
B. #1 Premium Tap 2-1: Fear reaction to taxing Woodward effort


SA 4: Yellow Ribbon-Gr. I, 10f-T (5:10p)

1. #9 Wait a While 8-5: Country's top turf gal day's most likely winner
2. #6 Singalong 15-1: Improving Singspiel daughter ITM 11/12 career
A. #2 Live Life 7-2: Drysdale miss gets along well with PVal
B. #1 Three Degrees 4-1: "Other" Gallagher likes course; closes stoutly


SA 5: Hirsch-Gr. I, 10f-T (5:40p)

1. #4 The Tin Man 3-5: Beatable, but still controlling speed
2. #6 Sharp Writer 20-1: Returns to lawn; Can create pressure; Offers value
A. #5 T.H. Approval 5-2: Inda grey not likely to get set-up for late kick
B. #3 Artiste Royal 9-2: Addition of PVal adds appeal to consistent Danehill bay


<$50 P4 Play:

A. 2-3-6-8
B. 1-6-7
C. 9
D. 3-4-5-6

4x3x1x4 = $48


Glances at other Stakes today..


SA 9: Oak Leaf-Gr. I, 8.5f 7:45p

1. #3 Pinata 12-1: Miller a sharp young trainer and Landaluce winner should be ready
2. #11 Point Ashley 4-5: Not indicting her quality, but price silly on lightly raced gals
A. #8 Outofthepast 8-1: Exchange Rate grey beat Ashley and has faced best of West
B. #5 Back in the Shade 12-1: Paasch got this CRC filly from Hills; Tabs go to guy Solis


WO 6: Mazarine-Gr. III, 8.5f, 3:35p

1. #10 Sprung 3-1: Casse Grand Slam overcame huge trouble in debut under RamSam
2. #4 A.P. Reality 4-1: First of pair from Baker is the one that keep McAleney
A. #2 Changeisgonnacome 6-1: Trombetta ships with (SAR) PG Johnson winner; Lures Kabel
B. #6 Coy Coyote 8-1: "Other" Baker stretches after showing a liking for new Toronto strip


DEL 8: Kelso, 9.5f (3:54p)

1. #3 Auguri 5-2: Tagg-Lael overachiever brings Mig for front end try
2. #4 Angelic Aura 10-1: Klesaris gelding always earns a check
A. #7 Smart Growth 6-1: Sheppard's "A" entrant likes strip; Keeps Rose
B. #6 Golden Rainbow 6-1: Ritchey-Elliott 4 yo hasn't missed board 12 months


LRL 10: 25th Martha Washington, $200,000, 8.5f-T (5:37p)

1. #6 Gasia 6-1: Double listed winner offers value if grass to her liking; In Jones we trust
2. #4 Meribel 4-1 Classy Clement Dynasty winner needs to time late run perfectly
A. #5 Delmarva 5-1: Kimmel bay just keeps improving steadily; Good spot..
B. #1a (poe) Precious Kitten 8-1: Half to Kitten's Joy, (out of late, tragic mare), can stalk and pounce


HAW 8/9 (Gold Cup/Carey)

8th: 3-4-2-5
9th: 8-7-3-5


TP 6: 21st TP BC-Gr. III, 8.5f

1. #2 Prospective Saint 5-2
2. #10 Darluna 15-1
A. #7 Splendid Blendid 9-5
B. #3 La Reason 5-1
C. #11 Soul Search 10-1


TP 7: 13th KY Cup Sprint-Gr. III, 6f

1. #5 Ghosttrapper 8-1
2. #8 Likely 7-2
A. #10 Island Warrior 4-1
B. #6 Hallowed Flag 12-1


TP 8: Classic (See above)


TP 9: 13th KY Cup Juvenile-Gr. III, 8.5f

1. #9 Izzie's Halo 7-2
2. #10 Nerve 12-1
A. #7 Shore 8-1
B. #8 Shermanesque 3-1
C. #1 Native Ruler 6-1


TP 10: KY Cup Juvenile Fillies, 1m

1. #3 Whatdreamrmadeof 7-2
2. #6 Kauai Calls 3-1
A. #1 Cohiba Miss 8-1
B. #7 Cherokee Sheik 4-1


Good luck!
Steve

[mclem10011]

I agree with Wait a while, should be the ovious single play. I'm not totally sold on any of the other top choices, The Tin man should be tough to be though. Perfect Drift is always game, should be there in the end, but I have a hunch that Greeley's Galaxy with Bejarano back in the saddle may run a big one today.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by mclem10011

I agree with Wait a while, should be the ovious single play. I'm not totally sold on any of the other top choices, The Tin man should be tough to beat though. Perfect Drift is always game, should be there in the end, but I have a hunch that Greeley's Galaxy with Bejarano back in the saddle may run a big one today.

Mc,

I fear Greeley too, but think the jock switch on Perfect Drift from Guidry to Leparoux is even more significant... And Alumni Hall looks like he may be circling towards a big effort.

[SundayStar]

if it's ashkal way, perfect drift, wait a while, and tin man, will you make your
$48 back?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by SundayStar

if it's ashkal way, perfect drift, wait a while, and tin man, will you make your $48 back?

S/S..

NO!

But if you get Free Thinking or Friendly Island, Alumni Hall, Sharp Writer or Artiste to get in to this, and ideally two or three of them, then it turns into a bonanza. And these NTRA 4's seem to have a habit of getty goofy...

[SundayStar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

S/S..

NO!

But if you get Free Thinking or Friendly Island, Alumni Hall, Sharp Writer or Artiste to get in to this, and ideally two or three of them, then it turns into a bonanza. And these NTRA 4's seem to have a habit of getty goofy...

true. to me, it looks like a real chalky pik 4 but you never know. there's only one horse that i think could spoil your ticket. drum major.

[Gander]

I wouldnt be surprised if the Tin Man loses today. These "easy" races are always the ones that something goes amiss in. I know there doesnt look like any other speed in here, but somebody will send a horse that doesnt necessarily want to be in front. Maybe Sharp Writer will go. I would use TH Approval and Artiste Royal, but obviously use the Tin Man too. (3)


Wait a While will probably win. Single her. (1)

I would defientely try to beat Ashkal Way using Friendly Island and Free Thinking. (2)

The KY Cup is an interesting race and I'd again try and beat the favorites Premium Tap and Perfect Drift. Use Ball Four, Greeleys Galaxy and Alumni Hall. (3)

[Kasept]

Stakes Selections updated with rest of the day's action...

Hope everyone enjoys the afternoon.. Was headed to Calder but will watch from comfort of home instead...

Back to the Northeast tomorrow for the week leading up to JCGC Day at BEL...

[ceejay]

My NTRA play:
$2 tickets for $44 total:


$1 tickets for another $49

Key longshots include Ball Four and Alumni Hall in the KC Classic; Drum Major, Free thinking in the Kelso; Singalong is probably a strech in the Yellow ribbon as is Sharp writer in the Hirsch;

[intense]

I liked Ashkal and saw you were on it too, made me play it. great work. I always look forward to your picks, they are very solid.

I always bet Fort Prado because hes one of my favorite horses, glad to see you like him in this race. I think he will get his revenge on "tiger" this time.


thanks again and keep up the good work.

intense

[mclem10011]

Bombs away at Turf Way Park! I'd already been knocked out of the pick 4 with the first price horse, but I couldn't find Ball Four to beat Perfect Drift! I missed the race, what kinda pace was it? Break it down for me real quick if you have a minute? I just watched the 10th from TP, and I'm sure he's a nice guy, but Mike Bataglia has got to be the most boring race caller in the world! Put's me to sleep during the race!

[ceejay]

Won on lead by Ball4. Visually the pace looked slow to moderate to me but we'll have to wait on the "pacefig." 23.79-47.51-111.59.

The race made my day. Win ticket, ex, seperator in P4!!

[ateamstupid]

$145 straight triple from Hollywood to you in the Kelso. Not bad in the other races either schmoop..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

$145 straight triple from Hollywood to you in the Kelso. Not bad in the other races either schmoop..

Thx Oey..

The HAW Gold Cup and Martha Washington tri's were very nice too, and the EX's in the Mazarine and KY Cup JF paid well... Struggled overall at Turfway though.

Getting juiced for JCGC despite Invasor's defection... Talk this week...

[Bogey]

Steve, Nice call on the Nat'l PK4 on the air. Just about 6-1 on your return on a $21 ticket.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Bogey

Steve, Nice call on the Nat'l PK4 on the air. Just about 6-1 on your return on a $21 ticket.

Thanks Gus..

And nice job focusing in on No Tolerance...!