What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple?

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Maria's Mon had almost 1,000 foals on the ground before he kicked it. How big a sample size do you want?

How many tried going 12f on the dirt?

[randallscott35]

His dam helps in distance guys.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

To win all three? Pretty low considering there have been 92 "official" runnings of the Triple Crown since 1918 and only 11 horses have won all three.

He already won one.

10 to 12% sounds about right. His odds make him more likely, as TC hopefuls are always WAY overbet in the Belmont, but isn't it hard to believe he can be over 40% in that race....and probably less?

[parsixfarms]

As the NYS legislature continues to dither, NYRA and the NY racing industry as a whole could really use the financial shot in the arm that would come from Super Saver winning the Preakness. NYRA has been very unlucky on its "big days" recently. Hopefully, that will change and the stars will align for Super Saver in Baltimore.

[FATPIANO]

Let's see how he does at Pimlico, right now we have an evenly matched group of 3 yr olds, except for Esky. If Super Saver can pull off the Preakness, and stay healthy, I'd give him an excellent chance at Belmont, Look at last years Pilgrim. All Calvin would have to do is ride a few races at Belmont and get comfortable over the track. Go Super Go........

[slotdirt]

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

Worst day in history at Belmont. 1000 degrees and the bathrooms on an entire floor didn't work or were locked. People pissing on the floors. What a mess.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Big Brown seemed a virtual cinch for the Belmont in 2008, and how many showed up at Belmont Park? 98k? I know it was one of the hottest June days on record, but still, it was a much smaller crowd than the one that came to see Smarty Jones, for instance.

Smarty had a huge Philly/Pa contigent, so I'm thinking many of them made the trek to Belmont that day. Also Smarty had that feel of being the people's horse with very likeable connections.
Big Brown seemed to be the opposite. IEAH came across as these mercenaries with their black suits and sunglasses that bought their way in. Not to mention what some people's opinions of Dutrow are. It just didn't seem like everone was on board rooting for Big Brown, like they usually do when a horse is going into the Belmont trying to capture the crown.
The Eight Belles tradgedy also seemed to take some of the starch out of the triple crown campaign that year as well.

[Gate Dancer]

10%-15% to win either the Preakness or Belmont...............I think he goes down in Baltimore.

[randallscott35]

WinStar Farms' Super Saver jogged a mile at Churchill Downs on the morning of May 5 in his first return to the track since winning the May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

"He looked very good," Mike McCarthy, assistant to trainer Todd Pletcher said of the Maria's Mon colt’s appearance on the track.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Pros:
1. Pletcher winning a lot lately
2. Lightly raced
3. Has won at Belmont
4. Weak crop
5. Slop no issue

Cons:
1. Rigors of short rest
2. Full fields likely for both
3. Not head and shoulders better
4. Borel's ride on Mine That Bird last year has to worry you about riding Big Sandy

20% Chance I Guess

i agree, with all of this. the number one con is a big point in recent history. it seems like these horses can't take the rigors of 3 races in 5 weeks.

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Smarty had a huge Philly/Pa contigent, so I'm thinking many of them made the trek to Belmont that day. Also Smarty had that feel of being the people's horse with very likeable connections.
Big Brown seemed to be the opposite. IEAH came across as these mercenaries with their black suits and sunglasses that bought their way in. Not to mention what some people's opinions of Dutrow are. It just didn't seem like everone was on board rooting for Big Brown, like they usually do when a horse is going into the Belmont trying to capture the crown.
The Eight Belles tradgedy also seemed to take some of the starch out of the triple crown campaign that year as well.

didnt NYRA ban bringing in coolers of beer for Belmont one year? I know Pimlico did, I could be completely wrong.

the beer thing always affects attendence.. Also the weather of course

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

33.3%

This would be about just right if the question was what are his chances of winning the Preakness. The horse got a perfect trip in the derby, I will be playing against him.

[slotdirt]

Belmont banned bringing in your own beer long before Pimlico ever did. I think that was 2005 maybe? Definitely has cut down on attendance, though that might not necessarily be the direct cause and effect.

Pimlico is letting folks buy mugs for $20 that can be filled as many times as one would like this year.

[Indian Charlie]

In my estimation, Super Saver is not nearly as good a horse away from Churchill Downs as he is at Churchill Downs.

If he wins the TC, I will rename my user name here IndianCharlie1985.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's very simple......you multiply his chances of winning each race ( and also have to figure in whatever realistic chance he has of not running for whatever reason ). 30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 10% ( .1 ) as an injury factor is relatively fair....though 40% for the Belmont may be a little high.

10% is a realistic number.

I'll go with 0%

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I'll go with 0%

We weren't talking about Eskendereya's chances.

[alysheba4]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Worst day in history at Belmont. 1000 degrees and the bathrooms on an entire floor didn't work or were locked. People pissing on the floors. What a mess.

.....my 1st visist to belmont.....i loved when smarty was beaten the ping pong paddle looking smarty plauqes were flying. the train outta there reminded me of cal jam 2.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

When was the last time Maria's Mon (rest in peace) sired a horse that wanted to go 12 furlongs on the dirt? Has there been one?

I don't see how the colt's pedigree is in any way a negative. Maria's Mon over a well-bred A.P. Indy mare indicates plenty of stamina to me.

It seems unlikely that he will win the TC, but I don't think that is because he is lacking in the stamina department in terms of pedigree.