5/30: Belmont Park ($45k C/O)

[Kasept]

Was pleased, and relieved, to open the Holiday Weekend with the best day of capping/wagering I've had in ages. Only a couple of tough to make winners held back an enormous afternoon, as Biancone's Whoopi Kitten (MTH 6th) and Galluscio's Pork Chop Sandra (BEL 7th) stymied the Shore's .50 P5 and Elmont late quad. The $300+ P4 to end the day in Jersey and $135 8th-10th P3 in NY went a long way towards profitability on the day, as did Pat Kelly's $18 'on tap' Best Value Spa City Fever in the BEL 8th. There were a number of nice hits during second half of the Oceanport card including $118, $130 and $62 P3's, and a complete sweep of the nightcap's top 4 'straight'.

P6 carryovers at Belmont ($45.5k) and Churchill ($54k) are remnants of the Saturday action, and I've looked at New York's, which is tricky. May get to the Monmouth action as well, but need to have an eye towards Monday's huge slate with ATR's broadcast coming to you live from Belmont. Note that Saturday's .50 P5 at MTH handled a bulbous $216k! Enjoy Day 2 of the Memorial Day Weekend racefest!



BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Refinery Fire 3-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Miss Tequila 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Tropical Jetset 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Fiddlers Wildheart 5-1


6th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

This is a much trickier race than it should be, and one of the events in the sequence that make this a challenging P6. Looking at it reasonably, all but the 6 & 7 'can win', but Mission Approved does own a pace edge and scratched from a richer MTH spot yesterday for this. Will be singled on many P6 plays, and can totally support that approach.. Whoa nellie... Now Mission Approved is a SCR!

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Next Best: #4 Xela 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Stevil 6-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Keeping the Honor 3-1 2nd


7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This is one of the other races on the sched that provides serious intrigue, with horses like Shoptate and Be Bullish eligible to turf dash just fine, a vulnerable favorite in 2-1 Redefined, and three others coming off various freshenings. Tough call..

Best Value: #2 Be Bullish 9-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Redefined 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Dreamt 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Shoptate 10-1 5th


8th: 32nd Kingston-NYB, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

The venerable Banrock is back to try for a third straight win in this race. Not that he can't handle it, but one concern is extra firm turf as the 12x winner has always shown predilection for some cut in the ground. Note that Chad Brown has had 70 days to work with claimee Gimme Credit..

Most Likely: #5 Banrock 8-5 5th
Best Value: #2 Gimme Credit 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Uncle T Seven 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Cash'n in Dixie 12-1 7th


9th: 32nd Mount Vernon-NYB, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 You Go West Girl 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Stormy Relations 9-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Chestoria 7-2 WON
Super Add: #7 Akilina 3-1 4th


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Themanintheglass 5-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Cash is Cohen 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Sir John 4-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Love of Life 30-1 3rd


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-4
6: 1-2-4
7: 2-3-5-7
8: 2-5
9: 2-5
10: 1

2x3x4x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-5-7
8: 2-5
9: 2-5-6
10: 1-7

4x2x3x2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

I'm either going to single Redefined or pass on the pick 4.

I'm tired of spreading in these type of races where the usual suspect has a 'vulnerable' favorite that wins by 5+ lengths.

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S


5TH

1 Estero Bay Early


6TH

1A Eagle Strike Early NO SUPERFECTA
3 Mission Approved Early


7TH

1A Good Card Early
8 I Ain't No Saint Early


8TH

9 Dr. D. F. C. Early


9TH

8 Big Brownie Early


10TH

3 Call the General Early

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I'm either going to single Redefined or pass on the pick 4.

I'm tired of spreading in these type of races where the usual suspect has a 'vulnerable' favorite that wins by 5+ lengths.

Coach.. On top of the usual vulnerability concern for horses like this, we're dealing with a turf sprint on top of it! I'm willing to try to get one or the other of the 2 good dirt runners into the thing...

G/L!

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I'm either going to single Redefined or pass on the pick 4.

I'm tired of spreading in these type of races where the usual suspect has a 'vulnerable' favorite that wins by 5+ lengths.

I agree with you. He's supposed to win this race. I was against I've Got Speed when Tony D brought him back off a similar layoff a couple of weeks ago but that turned out fine. Both I've Got Speed and Redefined had shown some issues off of long layoffs but what Redefined has done on this course is remarkable. I think he goes wire to wire.

The key to a nice Pick 4 today is beating Banrock IMO. Steve pointed out that he prefers ground with a little give and both courses are super firm right now.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The key to a nice Pick 4 today is beating Banrock IMO. Steve pointed out that he prefers ground with a little give and both courses are super firm right now.

NT

These courses now are very similar to the courses at HOL and SA: unless there's a super fast pace or a multi-move setup, you're not passing in the stretch. I've never seen so many horses either unable to stay on righty lead or just flat out lose stride in the lane. Once upon a time, BEL was THE place for closers on the turf. I suppose after taking so many races off the courses, NYRA finally got what they wanted: UNFAIR turf courses.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

These courses now are very similar to the courses at HOL and SA: unless there's a super fast pace or a multi-move setup, you're not passing in the stretch. I've never seen so many horses either unable to stay on righty lead or just flat out lose stride in the lane. Once upon a time, BEL was THE place for closers on the turf. I suppose after taking so many races off the courses, NYRA finally got what they wanted: UNFAIR turf courses.

Sustained soaking rains are the sole cure for firm, dry turf courses. Sprinklers cannot substitute for extended periods of dry weather.

Or are you suggesting that taking races off the turf last fall led somehow to the current condition of the turf? Because so far this meet, there's been a whopping total of 4 races taken off the turf. And I'm still puzzled... Even if 50% of races the last 10 years were taken off the turf, what possible correlation does it have to this spring and the current dry spell and the condition of the grass courses?

[the_fat_man]

I'm saying that prolonged non use makes for harder courses. If you take races off, in some case, a WEEK after it's rained, for an extended period of time, it follows that the course will get harder. Think about it: what's harder, a garden that you dig up every year or one that you never dig up? There's barely NO kickback on the turf these days. It's sad, really.

This really is neither here nor there, as we all adapt to the way the courses are playing. However, the idea, for me, is to play the most fair venues possible. I realize much is made about takeout, field size and the quality of horses but for one playing multiple tracks the idea is to do as little work as possible for the best overall results. Having to watch a ton of races because of a BIAS is not exactly the most productive path.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I'm either going to single Redefined or pass on the pick 4.

I'm tired of spreading in these type of races where the usual suspect has a 'vulnerable' favorite that wins by 5+ lengths.

I would give a serious look at Dreamt, take a look of the replay of her last race where she was much the best but had a world of trouble and just could not get a clear run. I think this one is very well meant today.

[Kasept]

The MTH P5 looks very treacherous... May throw in a fun play.

6th: 4-6-8-9
7th: 1-4-8
8th: 12-13
9th: 3-6
10th: 1-3-8-9

4x3x2x2x4 = 192 x .50 = $96


MTH P5 SCR'S

6
Craving Chocolate scratched
Emotional Lady scratched

7
Indian Legend scratched

8
Edwards scratched
Run to Grand Ave. scratched
Ponzi Scheme jockey changed to Valdivia J Jr

9
C C's Pal scratched
Ultimate Class scratched

10
Manitoba Miss scratched

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

The MTH P5 looks very treacherous...

6th: 4-6-8-9

How about that? 8-6-4 at MTH in the 6th for a nice Yahtzee. The Nunn horse turf to dirt juices it and nearly hung on (at 60-1!)...

[jefff777]

ha! no way you get any where near 22.50 or whatever next time!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by jefff777

ha! no way you get any where near 22.50 or whatever next time!

60-1 was silly on Mocha Bay. Only he and Saintly Cat had any recency... And the winner was a City Zip (17% FTS) that had to be used.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

we are bringing it home!!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

we are bringing it home!!

Not me.. I left the Precious Passion sister off the MTH P5... Uggh..

[ateamstupid]

Just Playin Around 1:07.10 and Minnie Punt 1:39.73, the Belmont turf is roasted.

[the_fat_man]

Another BLOWN RIDE by the EUNUCH Prado

[ateamstupid]

@ Ramon fighting his horse when they're going :51 to the half.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Another BLOWN RIDE by the EUNUCH Prado

I didn't post it because I am disgusted with the poor opinions I have had all day today, but I used Paraiba in DD's with the 1,7,8 and feel like I should be live to some very nice tickets right now. Frustrating day for me today.

[jms62]

Do we get a double carry on the 4-6-7-8?