5/29-30 (BEL): Vagrancy (G2); NYB Stakes; Met (G1), Sands Pt. (G2)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by philcski

Correct... although I wouldn't be surprised if they revise the number down because it was a closer margin, even though they shouldn't.

They absolutely shouldn't. Musket Man is a nice horse and he ran a huge race.

NT

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by paulo537

How do you think Musket Man ran?

I think he ran a phenomenal race, he got a beautiful ride and ran clearly the best race of his career.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I've been trying to figure out what Warrior's Reward was doing so close to the pace, and moving with 3/8's to go, when we've seen how he excels in his most recent few starts.

Borel must have an evil twin that rides outside of CD. That was a silly ride to be kind.

[blackthroatedwind]

It looks like the raw number is 114 which makes sense given a 98 for Miner's Reserve and 104 for Driven by Success.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It looks like the raw number is 114 which makes sense given a 98 for Miner's Reserve and 104 for Driven by Success.

Does the raw figure mean that it's just a preliminary figure and will be adjusted? I would have figured a BSF of at least 100 based on the fact that the races prior to Miner's Reserve seemed slow.

In any case, it was nice to see him run back to his maiden win. I never liked him running in the Florida Derby, but I expected him to do better than he did; I suppose he just hated the mud at CD.

[Port Conway Lane]

Did someone mention Dunkirk ?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It looks like the raw number is 114 which makes sense given a 98 for Miner's Reserve and 104 for Driven by Success.

I get similar numbers for those two (99 & 104)... which would give QR a 120 or 121 because 1:33.11 should be 16 or 17 points faster than 1:21.75. It should be a -14 point variant for the day so the first race gets a 69 and the 3rd a 56.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I get similar numbers for those two (99 & 104)... which would give QR a 120 or 121 because 1:33.11 should be 16 or 17 points faster than 1:21.75. It should be a -14 point variant for the day so the first race gets a 69 and the 3rd a 56.

Sorry, but I don't see how a 1:33 corresponds to a 1:20 1/5 which is basically what you are saying.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sorry, but I don't see how a 1:33 corresponds to a 1:20 1/5 which is basically what you are saying.

Correct, that is what I'm saying... a 1:34 corresponds to a 1:21.25, and a 1:35 corresponds to a 1:22 1/5- so I don't think I'm wrong by much.

[blackthroatedwind]

That doesn't work for me....especially given that Quality Road went about 1:20 4/5.

[blackthroatedwind]

By the way, Phil, not to seem disagreeable, but you do realize the numbers posted at 10pm tonight are highly unlikely to have been massaged in any way?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

That doesn't work for me....especially given that Quality Road went about 1:20 4/5.

I agree with you that he went about 1:20 4/5. But that being said... the time chart is what it is, and a 1:33.11 is a 134 raw figure, and they clearly used a 14 point variant on the rest of the card.

I think you have a valid point that the time chart parallel might be incorrect at that level, however, and that would explain the difference.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

By the way, Phil, not to seem disagreeable, but you do realize the numbers posted at 10pm tonight are highly unlikely to have been massaged in any way?

Well, how long do you think it takes the figure maker to determine the final level? First cut shouldn't take more than a half hour for Beyers. It isn't Thorograph where every runners' path has to be scrutinized, etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

I've done enough thinking for one day....I will stick with what I know.

It's not really a timing thing, per se, right now.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Borel must have an evil twin that rides outside of CD. That was a silly ride to be kind.

[philcski]

All in all, I don't think anyone needs a number to know what an incredible performance that was anyways.

Tizway also ran monster.

[blackthroatedwind]

Agreed.

Tizway is a terrific horse. I was particularly happy he ran so well.

[richard]

"And Musket Man is firing at Quality Road !" Great stretch call by Durkin.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by richard

"And Musket Man is firing at Quality Road !" Great stretch call by Durkin.

Thought it was great too.

What a horse!

[OldDog]

Great stretch run by Musket Man, tremendous overall race by Quality Road, and a wonderful call by Tom Durkin. I had to pull to the side of the road so I wouldn't crash.

[blackthroatedwind]

One amusing sidenote to the Met considering a certain posters inane ramblings on this board was the contrast in rides. While the great Calvin Borel ( great because he was won three KY Derbys ) was butchering Warrior's Reward, the overrated Ramon Dominguez was giving as fine a ride as possible on Musket Man. One minimized his mount's chances and the other maximized his.