A Little Warm Returns... Tuesday, Delaware Park

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It was a very fast race.

So if you were Nick, would you be disappointed? It looks like he set fast fractions and had every right to get tired. He may not want to run long as he appears to be something of a speed demon. I haven't seen the race, just read the recap in the Form.

[the_fat_man]

I'm going to go on a limb here as well and state that I don't want either of these plugs back in a major race, on a NON SPEED FAVORING SURFACE, either.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm going to go on a limb here as well and state that I don't want either of these plugs back in a major race, on a NON SPEED FAVORING SURFACE, either.

Im not sure how much of a limb that is? Andy is right about me making a quick snap opinions, but I also trust my opinion. Would I give either of these 2 a shot against the likes of Trappe Shot, Lookin at Lucky, or even Afleet Express, NO WAY.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im not sure how much of a limb that is?

I'm actually sweating it. You know how much FAST horses influence my handicapping.


ha ha ha

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm going to go on a limb here as well and state that I don't want either of these plugs back in a major race, on a NON SPEED FAVORING SURFACE, either.

I don't pay much attention to Delaware, that's being kind, but looking at the charts it didn't look like a big speed track. I realize that can be misleading but are you sure?

I take all Delaware races with a grain of salt, and I don't think anyone here is declaring the first two world beaters, despite how high the number will come back, but in this 3YO crop they aren't bad.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't pay much attention to Delaware, that's being kind, but looking at the charts it didn't look like a big speed track. I realize that can be misleading but are you sure?

I take all Delaware races with a grain of salt, and I don't think anyone here is declaring the first two world beaters, despite how high the number will come back, but in this 3YO crop they aren't bad.

It goes both ways with me, because as much as I dislike these 2 moving forward I would guess they can be very competitive with the Derby and Belmont winners.....

[RockHardTen1985]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/114303.html

[blackthroatedwind]

The early number is 106 for the winner.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im not sure how much of a limb that is? Andy is right about me making a quick snap opinions, but I also trust my opinion. Would I give either of these 2 a shot against the likes of Trappe Shot, Lookin at Lucky, or even Afleet Express, NO WAY.

Let's not forget what Trappe Shot really is. I was impressed with his win on Belmont day but he's a fragile horse who was supposed to run in two graded stakes but didn't and instead beat a questionable allowance field (albeit in a nice final time) with a perfect trip.

He's good but to mention him as a top 3YO before we've even seen him go two turns is premature.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Let's not forget what Trappe Shot really is. I was impressed with his win on Belmont day but he's a fragile horse who was supposed to run in two graded stakes but didn't and instead beat a questionable allowance field (albeit in a nice final time) with a perfect trip.

He's good but to mention him as a top 3YO before we've even seen him go two turns is premature.

NT

I like brillant, raw talent type horses... I think thats what Trappe Shot is, I dont think ALW is that, I agree that he needs a cutback, he would be tough in the Kings Bishop, maybe??

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Let's not forget what Trappe Shot really is. I was impressed with his win on Belmont day but he's a fragile horse who was supposed to run in two graded stakes but didn't and instead beat a questionable allowance field (albeit in a nice final time) with a perfect trip.

He's good but to mention him as a top 3YO before we've even seen him go two turns is premature.

What was so questionable about the allowance field he beat? As far as allowance fields go these days ... I thought that was an extremely tough entry level alw race.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What was so questionable about the allowance field he beat? As far as allowance fields go these days ... I thought that was an extremely tough entry level alw race.

I think it was more of a shot at me... This is from a guy who has talked Trappe Shot up to me for months now as one to watch, potential top 3 yr old... Now all the sudden A Little Warm is better?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

What was so questionable about the allowance field he beat? As far as allowance fields go these days ... I thought that was an extremely tough entry level alw race.

You think Tahitian Warrior was ready to go off the layoff? Considering Godolphin's numbers, specifically at Belmont over the last two years, I doubt it. As far as the rest of the field, the Levine horse who got left, Ricoriatoa, and Monte Carlo are hardly good.

I also never said A Little Warm was better than Trappe Shot. I made a comment about him being considered an elite 3YO. Call me old fashioned, but I'd like to see a 3YO go two turns before I consider him a Travers horse.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You think Tahitian Warrior was ready to go off the layoff? Considering Godolphin's numbers, specifically at Belmont over the last two years, I doubt it. As far as the rest of the field, the Levine horse who got left, Ricoriatoa, and Monte Carlo are hardly good.

Was he ready to go in his debut race off of nothing but workouts?

He ran back to his huge debut race in sound defeat. Yet you still doubt he was ready to go?

What's wrong with Godolphin's numbers at Belmont? They look like this

2009: 5-for-24 (21%)
2008: 13-for-38 (34%)
2007: 8-for-32 (25%)
2006: 7-for-16 (44%)
2005: 5-for-17 (29%)

Are those supposed to be bad numbers suggesting they can't have a horse ready? When you consider how extremely cautious they are - they aren't exactly who you think of when it comes to starting short horses - or horses who need races.

Ricoriatoa was beaten just a neck in a fast N1X alw race in his prior start ... he was 4th by 11+ lengths against this so called "questionable group" of entry level allowance horses?

If this was a questionable entry level allowance group ... I'm absolutely dying to see what a solid entry level allowance group looks like.

Sorry you can't accept a simple little correction.

I remember talking to the owner of PeteCarol - a layoff horse he claimed for 80K two starts back - and he was all excited about betting him because he was outworking a good alw sprinter he also owns who runs high 80's .. when I looked at the field it was pretty obvious his horse was going to get smoked bad at a huge price. I guess I could have told him ... Wow, you got extremely lucky!! You landed in a questional field!!

The big question with most entry level alw races is 'why aren't about half the horses in this field entered in a 25K N2L claiming race instead?' With this allowance race .. the question was more like 'will this race produce a graded stakes winner or two?'

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Was he ready to go in his debut race off of nothing but workouts?

He ran back to his huge debut race in sound defeat. Yet you still doubt he was ready to go?

What's wrong with Godolphin's numbers at Belmont? They look like this

2009: 5-for-24 (21%)
2008: 13-for-38 (34%)
2007: 8-for-32 (25%)
2006: 7-for-16 (44%)
2005: 5-for-17 (29%)

Are those supposed to be bad numbers suggesting they can't have a horse ready? When you consider how extremely cautious they are - they aren't exactly who you think of when it comes to starting short horses - or horses who need races.

Ricoriatoa was beaten just a neck in a fast N1X alw race in his prior start ... he was 4th by 11+ lengths against this so called "questionable group" of entry level allowance horses?

If this was a questionable entry level allowance group ... I'm absolutely dying to see what a solid entry level allowance group looks like.

Sorry you can't accept a simple little correction.

I remember talking to the owner of PeteCarol - a layoff horse he claimed for 80K two starts back - and he was all excited about betting him because he was outworking a good alw sprinter he also owns who runs high 80's .. when I looked at the field it was pretty obvious his horse was going to get smoked bad at a huge price. I guess I could have told him ... Wow, you got extremely lucky!! You landed in a questional field!!

The big question with most entry level alw races is 'why aren't about half the horses in this field entered in a 25K N2L claiming race instead?' With this allowance race .. the question was more like 'will this race produce a graded stakes winner or two?'

I should have said one year regarding Godolphin. They were 0-7 with horses who wintered in Dubai at the 2009 Belmont spring-summer meet and went 1-13 at the whole stand. Included in those were losses by horses at 1/5, 4-1, 1-10, and 7/2. None went off more than 9-1. In fact, their operation was the butt of many jokes here and elsewhere during the summer meet, especially after Cocoa Beach lost at 1-10.

Ricoriatoa entered that race off a six race losing streak where he was beaten as the favorite three times on the inner track and was under 2-1 in each of those starts. The "fast" allowance race he exited was won by a horse who got beat by a city block in the restricted Mike Lee next time out.

Some of the main competition for Trappe Shot was either scratched (Endless Circle solely based on his trainer) or left (Top It) or ruined on the backstretch (Zio Tony). Those were the horses in addition to Tahitian Warrior. As far as Petecarrol, his trainer couldn't teach Lassie to bark at this meet, so perhaps next time will be the time.

Now, was this a particularly weak N1X by Belmont standards this meet? Absolutely not, we've hardly seen a number of strong allowance races at the meet. It was a good group but Trappe Shot's win hardly makes me think he's a shoo-in to dominate stakes company or become a top tier 3YO because he beat those horses.

And don't worry, I'm more than capable of taking a little correction. Now, if you had compared me to RHT...

NT