8/28 (SAR): Travers Day

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

Super Saver has a bad post but if Borel can get him to slide over into a good spot and track the likely speed, he wins.

Really?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Really?

You don't like him? Please expand on the one word reply, really.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

You don't like him? Please expand on the one word reply, really.

I mean, you seemed to very "matter of factly" believe that Super Saver would win if he gets the rail, right?

The Derby is beginning to look like an aberration and winning it is always going to get Super Saver a lot of support at the windows. However, you have to believe he's going to rebound immensely in his 2nd start off a layoff to win this race and the price you're going to get on him doing that is just not worth it IMO.

NT

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

Super Saver has a bad post but if Borel can get him to slide over into a good spot and track the likely speed, he wins.

i'd use him if it's sloppy...and unlike some others, he's proven at 10f. there are certainly less likely horses in here; he may well surprise some doubters on saturday.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

No, there was no speed bias on Jim Dandy day in my opinion.

Six 9F races run @ SAR 7/30, 31 & 8/01

7/30 -- was that clown race won by Persistently, where the jocks played knockouts with each other and the last move won --- we'll throw this one out

7/31 --

R2 --- the Admiral Alex race goes 3-4-1 around the track but the top 3 were within 2 length of the lead at all times

R7 -- Arcodoro wires @ huge odds. the 3rd horse was 3rd, < 3 lengths back the 1st 3 calls.

R9 -- Jim Dandy goes 2-1 (essentially a duel around the track), with nothing running late

8/01

R8 -- CUrlin stakes --- Winslow HOmer goes wire to wire in a pronounced wipeout, that went 1-2 around the track

R9 -- Ruffian -- 1-2 around the track

Now, some of these results might make good sense in terms of the setups/pace but it also appears that there was a 2-turn bias on those days.

I don't want the Jim Dandy horses back. That much is clear.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I mean, you seemed to very "matter of factly" believe that Super Saver would win if he gets the rail, right?

The Derby is beginning to look like an aberration and winning it is always going to get Super Saver a lot of support at the windows. However, you have to believe he's going to rebound immensely in his 2nd start off a layoff to win this race and the price you're going to get on him doing that is just not worth it IMO.

NT

Yes, maybe. I think his last 2 starts have cooled his appeal quite abit, plus he has a bad post. I'm hoping these 2 factors plus the belief that many believe the derby was aberation will offset the blind appeal of betting a derby winner. You may have a point, but he does have alot of questions to answer this race. I also think there are going to be quite a few wiseguy choices in this race, he should be a square price.

As for the rail, I can see him up on the pace but Borel just slotting himself behind the speed horses, I love horses that run an awful line and handicappers concentrating on that last race. I think he will run well this Saturday and if Borel can get him to the first turn just off the leaders and no more than 3 wide he should be able to slot him inside once they make the turn. If Pletch has him ready he should be in a prime sit and pounce position.

[RolloTomasi]

What's the likelihood Miner's Reserve actually starts? Zito, who has 2 other horses entered, seemed on the fence all week about this horse even after post positions were drawn.

Gotta think he's looking hard at the Pennsylvania Derby or elsewhere.

If he comes out Super Saver, First Dude, Afleet Express, Friend Or Foe, Trappe Shot and A Little Warm have all shown enough speed to be prominent early, so we could see 1 or 2 premature moves down the backstretch.

Personally, I think Trappe Shot, if he's still in one piece, will break out here. Whereas A Little Warm seemed to have ideal runs in his last pair, Trappe Shot has had at least some minor traffic issues to deal with and done fairly well. The 10f seems to be within range for him, too, which is ironic because he was considered for the 7f King's Bishop as well, something perhaps the connections of Afleet Express and Friend Or Foe should have seriously considered as well.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'd use him if it's sloppy...and unlike some others, he's proven at 10f. there are certainly less likely horses in here; he may well surprise some doubters on saturday.

It's not a killer field, if one uses a projected beyer to win this race, he is one that can certainly hit the mark. He runs big or he flops into obscurity.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What's the likelihood Miner's Reserve actually starts? Zito, who has 2 other horses entered, seemed on the fence all week about this horse even after post positions were drawn.

He does have two other horses entered, but their chances would both take a serious hit if Miner's Reserve scratched for another spot.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What's the likelihood Miner's Reserve actually starts? Zito, who has 2 other horses entered, seemed on the fence all week about this horse even after post positions were drawn.

Gotta think he's looking hard at the Pennsylvania Derby or elsewhere.

If he comes out Super Saver, First Dude, Afleet Express, Friend Or Foe, Trappe Shot and A Little Warm have all shown enough speed to be prominent early, so we could see 1 or 2 premature moves down the backstretch.

Personally, I think Trappe Shot, if he's still in one piece, will break out here. Whereas A Little Warm seemed to have ideal runs in his last pair, Trappe Shot has had at least some minor traffic issues to deal with and done fairly well. The 10f seems to be within range for him, too, which is ironic because he was considered for the 7f King's Bishop as well, something perhaps the connections of Afleet Express and Friend Or Foe should have seriously considered as well.

Very doubtful Miner's Reserve scratches-the reason why he is running is because Zito and the owner wanted him in the race. He was iffy last week cause he didnt have a jockey and was not sure but he had a great workout and gotta be in

Plus he helps out Fly Down big time if he runs. More speed out front

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Very doubtful Miner's Reserve scratches-the reason why he is running is because Zito and the owner wanted him in the race. He was iffy last week cause he didnt have a jockey and was not sure but he had a great workout and gotta be in

Plus he helps out Fly Down big time if he runs. More speed out front

He was and is still iffy. Zito said he's undecided as to whether to run MR - they are looking at the Smarty Jones for him. I don't think La Penta would want his horse entered as mostly a way to help Fly Down.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Betsy

He was and is still iffy. Zito said he's undecided as to whether to run MR - they are looking at the Smarty Jones for him. I don't think La Penta would want his horse entered as mostly a way to help Fly Down.

What about being entered as mostly a way to help Ice Box?

NT

[Danzig]

miner's reserve earned a spot here; i hope they don't opt to go elsewhere. i think he belongs more than the other two at this point.

[Linny]

A friend of mine in the media, who has been friendly with Nick for years asked him about "going with 3" on Sat, and he was snarled at. I'm not sure Zito is all that in favor of MR in this spot.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What about being entered as mostly a way to help Ice Box?

NT

Does La Penta own Ice Box? Either way, he's a nice horse - I'd hate to see him be used as a rabbit.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

miner's reserve earned a spot here; i hope they don't opt to go elsewhere. i think he belongs more than the other two at this point.

I think Nicky likes Ice Box best.......then Fly Down. I don't think he's that enamored of MR - his quotes abou MR do not exactly radiate confidence.

I think Ice Box is overrated and although I like Fly Down a lot, he didn't show anything in the Jim Dandy.

[Indian Charlie]

I'd go with Super Saver here if they move the race to CD.

[nomad]

Travers looks relatively easy....
A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve
My money will probably go on MR as he is improving, works look good.
If he can avoid a duel with First Dude, he is much faster.
He's got the rail, not sure if that is bad or good. In top form, he could clear this field & hold off ALW. Spa's been speed-favoring.
I'll box 'em
JMO

[hockey2315]

Very easy race. You're right.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Very easy race. You're right.

Will you be here?
What do you think of the pick 4? After looking at the pps Im not as excited. I might be more into the early pick 4.