12/26 (SA): Malibu, La Brea (G1's); Beaufort (G2); CA Champion (R)

[Kasept]

5th (2:00) California Breeders' Champion S..

7 Furlongs (Main Track) | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Contemplated Rosario J 117 L
2 Woodmans Luck Flores D R 117 L
3 Gab Power Valenzuela P A 115 L
4 Thirtyfirststreet Bejarano R 117 L
5 Tappin Tough Nakatani C S 117
6 Offlee Wild Boys Gomez G K 115 L
7 Real Cool Dude Pedroza M A 117 L
8 Make It Cozy Espinoza V 115 L
9 Arresting Officer Talamo J 117 L



6th (2:30) La Brea S. (G1)

7 Furlongs (Main Track) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Pica Slew Talamo J 118 L
2 Tornado Betty Valenzuela P A 118 Blk-On L
3 Switch Rosario J 118 L
4 Patriotic Viva Smith M E 118 L
5 La Nez Espinoza V 118 L
6 It Tiz Flores D R 118 L
7 Malibu Pier Gomez G K 118 L
8 Hard Way Ten Solis A 118 L
9 Always a Princess Bejarano R 118 L
10 Shotgun Gulch Quinonez A 118 L
11 Champagne d'Oro Baze M C 123 L
12 Arte Viva Blanc B 118 L
13 Bonnie Blue Flag Nakatani C S 118 L



7th (3:00) Sir Beaufort S. (G2)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Blue Panis (FR) Talamo J 118 L
2 Nextdoorneighbor Espinoza V 118 Blk-Off L
3 Bogie (IRE) Gomez G K 118 L
4 Sebastian Flyte (GB) Leparoux J R 118 L
5 Sidney's Candy Rosario J 123 L
6 Indian Firewater Bejarano R 118 L
7 Stephen's Got Hope Pedroza M A 118 L
8 Make Music for Me Smith M E 118 L
9 Accelerant Quinonez A 118 L



8th (3:30) Malibu S. (G1)

7 Furlongs (Main Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Paris Vegas Nakatani C S 118 L
2 Alcindor Bejarano R 118 L
3 Thiskyhasnolimit Gomez G K 118 L
4 Caracortado Talamo J 118 L
5 Noble's Promise Leparoux J R 118 L
6 Setsuko Solis A 118 L
7 Don Tito Valenzuela P A 118 L
8 Thomas Baines Pedroza M A 118 L
9 Twirling Candy Rosario J 118 L
10 Our Minesweeper Blanc B 118 L
11 Smiling Tiger Baze R A 123 L

[RockHardTen1985]

The 4th has at least 2 runners in there.

[my miss storm cat]

That's a really nice field for the Sir Beaufort.

As an aside, isn't Tyler due back right around now?

[randallscott35]

Setsuko back from the dead, sure to take way too much money!

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

That's a really nice field for the Sir Beaufort.

As an aside, isn't Tyler due back right around now?

I dont think its that nice at all. I would love to try and beat Sidney, but with who?

[my miss storm cat]

Sebastian, Nextdoorneighbor, Blue Panis...

Maybe I'm insane for thinking any of them could win this but I do.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Sebastian, Nextdoorneighbor, Blue Panis...

Maybe I'm insane for thinking any of them could win this but I do.

I respect it, but dont see it. Maybe I will before Sunday. Thats really the only sequence I will play in the next week. I would like to come up with something more clever then keying Sidneys Candy.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by merasmag

guess u haven't been watchin his works...
whoops...ive said 2 much already!

To tack on to my earlier post (on another thread) regarding Setsuko:

He's also eligible for a first-condition allowance, making this entry in a Grade 1 a pretty bold move. There was a two-turn allowance the 2nd to last day at HP (won by Tweebster) he could have started in. Furthermore, having started favorite in the Crown Royal Turf on Kentucky Oaks Day and with a solid effort on turf previously, he also could have shown up in the Sir Beaufort.

Again, he hasn't shown sprint speed previously (though his bottom side is loaded with it--Souvenir Copy, Gold Tribute, Doneraile Court), so this has the look of merely a tune-up race and he'd need a total meltdown to get it done. Noble's Promise and Caracortado should get the jump on him and be tough to run down.

Regardless of the outcome in the Malibu, hopefully he's improved from the spring and will be a presence in the handicap ranks next year.

[letswastemoney]

Anyone have thoughts on Twirling Candy?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Anyone have thoughts on Twirling Candy?

Most likely winner. 2 horse race, him and the 2/2 freaky Baffert.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Anyone have thoughts on Twirling Candy?

Seems a better fit in the Sir Beaufort (owns two turf stakes victories already).

I don't think the cutback helps him as he seems to be a frontrunning type. Having to lock horns with top class sprinter Smiling Tiger (who has faced his elders with great success in his last 4 starts--all at the top level) and perhaps Alcindor seems like a recipe for another brick wall collision midstretch.

[RockHardTen1985]

The cutback is exactly what he needs. He will sit just off the pace as the draw is perfect for him. Unless Alcindor is a total freak I think he wins.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The cutback is exactly what he needs. He will sit just off the pace as the draw is perfect for him. Unless Alcindor is a total freak I think he wins.

Like I said, I'm not convinced he'll sit just off the pace. He's got a ridiculously fast work under his belt, he's relatively fresh, comes from a barn that basically specializes in sprinters. I think he'll be too close.

I agree he could contend if he settles early. But why are Caracortado and Noble's Promise hopeless, as they are certain to get the trip you envision for Twirling Candy, and have already benefitted from cutting back in their most recent starts? Certainly the latter is much more proven at the top level than Twirling Candy.

[hockey2315]

How can Twirling Candy not be an underlay?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How can Twirling Candy not be an underlay?

Well Baffert, Steve A, Mcpeek and the BC sprint horse.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Well Baffert, Steve A, Mcpeek and the BC sprint horse.

This horse was 3/5 in the Goodwood. . . Maybe the mania has worn off, but I doubt it. Noble's Promise should be the value, but I'm not sure how high his price can really be.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

This horse was 3/5 in the Goodwood. . . Maybe the mania has worn off, but I doubt it. Noble's Promise should be the value, but I'm not sure how high his price can really be.

NP is 3-1 or less.
What is fair on TC and Alcindor?
The Goodwood was horrible and he was the now horse then. The now horse now feels like Alcindor or NP.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

How can Twirling Candy not be an underlay?

It's going to be interesting to see how Sadler's horses do on dirt right off the bat. He had little success shipping to tracks with dirt in stakes races over the last few years (1-14 in graded stakes, 1-13 in non-graded stakes) but of course, now they're in his backyard.

I'm going to bet against Twirling Candy. He became the ultimate California hype horse and is going to continue to be overbet because of it. Two romping wins against horrible turf horses doesn't make him a Grade I dirt horse, but we'll see.

Sidney's Candy is going to have to be awfully short to lose the Sir Beaufort. Hopefully after he wins people can start talking about how he reminds them of Lure again.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's going to be interesting to see how Sadler's horses do on dirt right off the bat. He had little success shipping to tracks with dirt in stakes races over the last few years (1-14 in graded stakes, 1-13 in non-graded stakes) but of course, now they're in his backyard.

I'm going to bet against Twirling Candy. He became the ultimate California hype horse and is going to continue to be overbet because of it. Two romping wins against horrible turf horses doesn't make him a Grade I dirt horse, but we'll see.

Sidney's Candy is going to have to be awfully short to lose the Sir Beaufort. Hopefully after he wins people can start talking about how he reminds them of Lure again.

Who are you using against Twirling Candy?
I still cant find anyone to beat Sidneys.

[alysheba4]

N.P and bogie, santa anita has taken a foot of rain the last 6 days.