Why they slowly turned horse racing into a 450lbs lady with no tattoos or herpes...?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I never understood how and why the trend of constant takeout increases over time came to be.


Reading old DRF columns ... it was strongly suggested that takeout in NY be no higher than 5% when pari-mutuel wagering was about to come to be...



In Southern California in the late 1930's Santa Anita voluntarily cut takeout when law makers passed a bill to bump up their share of the takeout.

The takeout has crept up everywhere from 10% or 11% to the levels of today... but why? I think the following old-time quote gives a possible explanation regarding why that march upward started in the first place ...



The ultimate result is horse racing becoming a horribly unattractive game for its casual bettors and new fans... more and more so overtime. It's really developed quite the stigma as a "suckers game" with the general public.

How is this reversed? How does a 450lbs clean lady with a wonderful personality and brilliant cooking ability become attractive again? Yeah, it's a long painfully slow process of reduction. Tampa Bay Downs figured this out like 8 years ago - props to them. At the rate of their reductions - from extremely draconian starting levels - they should be able to pass for "cute" by the time the 2038 meet comes along. By the 2096 meet, they could be a full-fledged hottie.

[randallscott35]

Pretty much. Racing used to be the best value in betting. No longer.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In NY, they raised the takeout from 10% to 15% after the 1945 racing season.

The committe report from mid 1949 goes on about how the betting handle had since suffered badly ... but nothing is said about how unhealthy it was for the long term of the sport.

In 1945 approximately $40 million in $100 tickets were sold in NY. In 1948 approximately $15 million were sold.

In 1945 $114 million in $50 bets were sold. In 1948 just $72 million were sold.

The amount of $2 bets sold in 1945 was only $20 million higher than in 1948.

The conclusion of the above data is that most of the big bettors who bought the $50 and $100 tickets - because of the takeout hike - were now betting with bookies instead of buying tickets. While the $2 bettors - though betting less - weren't off as extreme. So in other words, try and crack down on the bookies - they're stealing all the big bettors

[randallscott35]

Well done Doug...although with politicians holding some of the strings in terms of takeouts I can't see them understanding the issue well enough to save racing in any meaningful way or return it to the pre-1940 period when it was a value...It may need to be a complete collapse of the industry and a reset needed to change the dynamics.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

although with politicians holding some of the strings in terms of takeouts I can't see them understanding the issue well enough

It seems that if the powers that be in racing want something from the politicians - maybe the easiest way to get it is in a package deal with a takeout increase?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It seems that if the powers that be in racing want something from the politicians - maybe the easiest way to get it is in a package deal with a takeout increase?

I think we have many years of the subsidy run around and VLTs to deal with before meaningful change.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Look at the last two guys put in charge of NYRA... I belive Barry Schwartz and Hayword.

Just about everything Schwartz said made me think he was a genius - and Hayword came on MSNBC last year and made a shocking amount of sense.

Try as they may have - they couldn't make anything meaningfull happen in that regard.

The powers that be in California are hopelessly retarded. They couldn't have possibly believed even a morsel of what they were selling.

They are playing games with rates at Gulfstream.

In order for HANA to have cred - they needed DRF and TVG to help them out A LOT. DRF has done nothing for HANA - I don't think I've ever even seen HANA so much as mentioned in a DRF column or blog post. TVG has done very little - they've put Maloney and the Platt guy on TV once or twice .. but that's about it. HANA's going to have no luck sparking an Egyptian style revolution for the oppressed horseplayer.

It's a totally hopeless outlook all-around. This sport has no progress at all in its future... what happened at Santa Anita this meet illustrates that crystal clear.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Look at the last two guys put in charge of NYRA... I belive Barry Schwartz and Hayword.

Just about everything Schwartz said made me think he was a genius - and Hayword came on MSNBC last year and made a shocking amount of sense.

Try as they may have - they couldn't make anything meaningfull happen in that regard.

The powers that be in California are hopelessly retarded. They couldn't have possibly believed even a morsel of what they were selling.

They are playing games with rates at Gulfstream.

In order for HANA to have cred - they needed DRF and TVG to help them out A LOT. DRF has done nothing for HANA - I don't think I've ever even seen HANA so much as mentioned in a DRF column or blog post. TVG has done very little - they've put Maloney and the Platt guy on TV once or twice .. but that's about it. HANA's going to have no luck sparking an Egyptian style revolution for the oppressed horseplayer.

It's a totally hopeless outlook all-around. This sport has no progress at all in its future... what happened at Santa Anita this meet illustrates that crystal clear.

Hana needs to make sure the Platt guys stays away from a microphone.

In order for them to be taken seriously, they need to find leadership that CAN be taken seriously. You put someone like Steve in there and things change really quick I bet.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It doesn't matter who they have - and how artful and persuasive they can be - at the very least - they'll need a ton of help from DRF and TVG. In a head scratching kind of way, Bloodhorse seems to be the entity that has been most willing to help them.

HANA has not been singularly focused enough on the takeout issue. For the future betterment of the sport, it's simply the only issue that even matters at all in my opinion.

[joeydb]

It's funny that horse racing is seen as a sucker's game, but slots are the "future of gambling"...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by joeydb

It's funny that horse racing is seen as a sucker's game, but slots are the "future of gambling"...

I'm not sure who called slots the future of gambling - but they're like crack cocaine to these old women around here.

My mother will stop up to see for me for two minutes and play them for three hours straight.

I would rather read a long PG 1985 response to a pedigree ann post than play a slot machine.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure who called slots the future of gambling - but they're like crack cocaine to these old women around here.

My mother will stop up to see for me for two minutes and play them for three hours straight.

I would rather read a long PG 1985 response to a pedigree ann post than play a slot machine.

My mistake - I should not have use quotes - but if see where the companies are putting their money, it's a good indicator that they think it is the future.

I agree 100% -- they seem to have a lot of addicts playing them.

It hits me in the gut to see a brainless game beating our game. It's an anti-merit situation.

Originally Posted by joeydb

My mistake - I should not have use quotes - but if see where the companies are putting their money, it's a good indicator that they think it is the future.

I agree 100% -- they seem to have a lot of addicts playing them.

It hits me in the gut to see a brainless game beating our game. It's an anti-merit situation.

You're not going to win that type of gambler over. You would have better luck teaching Orangutans about horse racing.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure who called slots the future of gambling - but they're like crack cocaine to these old women around here.

My mother will stop up to see for me for two minutes and play them for three hours straight.

I would rather read a long PG 1985 response to a pedigree ann post than play a slot machine.

I would rather watch Smooth Operator violate Zenyatta on a milk crate.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I would rather watch Smooth Operator violate Zenyatta on a milk crate.

It would be the other way around, provided you gave Z a strap on.

As for slots. It's mindless. It's fast. That's perfect for most people.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

As for slots. It's mindless. It's fast. That's perfect for most people.

Yep - walk right in, order a drink, light up a cigerette and start watching wheels spin.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by joeydb

It hits me in the gut to see a brainless game beating our game. It's an anti-merit situation.

I believe it all gets back to the takeout. It's my opinion that horse racing should - and possibly would - be more popular than the NFL and MLB had takeout steadily been reduced from 10% starting levels as opposed to steadily increased.

Betting on the sport would be absolutely huge beyond belief. The lead to Sports Center many nights would be a horse racing story - now, it's a rareity if an elite race gets covered on ESPN .. and if the College Vollyball game goes to overtime you could miss half of the coverage.

Horse racing is only an essential to life for a few truly crazy crazies like myself. All of the suckers, hunch players, name betters have been seduced away by lotto's and slots. And as the pair-mutual competiton has become tougher the takeout has risen well beyond oppressive levels.

What happens to countries when they oppress her people? What happened in Rome when the bread and circuses ran out? What happened in France when they were told to eat cake by a clueless aristocrat? What happened in Athens when a handful of oligarchs marched them off a cliff in the Peloponesian War? What's happening in Egypt right now?

Because horse racing is not an essential - and never will be - instead of a revolt you just see the sport has slowly slid more and more to irrelevance with the general public for all but one or two days a year.

The remarkable thing is that no one gains from raising takeout. Progress is stunted and everyone loses from it. It honestly makes no sense at all to me. The part I never understood was why it went up in the first place. That's why I found the following quote from the 1950's so interesting ...

[tector]

For most people, the ROI on slots (6% takeout) is going to be better for them than racing (20%), because most people are brainless bettors. That is not a sin, it is just what they are looking for.

If you want to use your brain just a wee bit, then solid basic strategy blackjack and stick-to-the smart-bets craps (assuming you are allowed decent odds bets) are probably best for those who want to be just slightly engaged in their wagering.

For who really want to work at it, the real competition for horse racing is sports wagering (@5% takeout) and poker (generally 5-10% rake).

Of course racing has some advantages over these, at least in my mind--a beautiful day at GP, SAR, DMR, SA or KEE beats the sh!t out of any sportsbook or card room. But if it is January at Penn National, those advantages are not so evident.

Takeout MUST come down--it is killing the game by pushing away smart money. And dumb money has too many other less expensive choices nowadays.

[joeydb]

Originally Posted by tector

Takeout MUST come down--it is killing the game by pushing away smart money. And dumb money has too many other less expensive choices nowadays.

Very succinctly and accurately stated. Excellent.

[brockguy]

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