3/26 (TP): Spiral, Bourbonette (G3's); Rushaway, Hansel, Queen

[Kasept]

6th (3:35) Queen S.

6 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $50,000

1 Happy Week Carmouche K 120 LA
2 Sweet Temptress Saez G 116 LA
3 Midst Castellano J J 116 LA
4 Winsockie Creed B 116 LA
5 Sweet Gladys Lopez J 116 LA
6 Snowscape Vargas J P 116 LA
7 Hyperlink Garcia Alan 122 LA



7th (4:04) Hansel S.

6 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $50,000

1 Murjan Garcia Alan 122 Blk-On LA
2 Banjammer Alvarado J 118 LA
3 Gonna Tell Mama Creed B 118 L
4 Big Albert Sanchez A M 118 L
5 Getaway Guy Saez G 118 LA
6 Devil Train Lenclud F 118 LA
7 Ghost Is Clear Lebron V 118 LA
8 Philippe Lopez J 118 LA
9 Chasing Moonlight Castellano J J 118 LA
10 Cuvee's Image McKee J 118 L
11 Inhisglory Prescott R 122 L
12 Birdie Beats Par Goncalves L R 118 L



8th (4:33) Bourbonette Oaks (G3)

1 Mile (All Weather Track) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Proud House Pompell T L 118 L
2 Suave Voir Faire Alvarado J 116 Blk-Off LA
3 Marion Ravenwood Garcia Alan 116 LA
4 Lilacs and Lace Castellano J J 122 LA
5 Summer Soiree Saez G 118 LA
6 Kitten's Dancer Lebron V 116 LA
7 Readybdancing Goncalves L R 116 L
8 Angelica Zapata Rosendo I J 116 LA
9 Jelly Cable Creed B 118 LA
10 Harlan's Ruby Ouzts P W 122 LA
11 Touch Screen McKee J 118 L



9th (5:02) Rushaway S.

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Grandpa Gibby Lopez J 116 Blk-On LA
2 Crimson China Garcia Alan 118 LA
3 St. Ivan Lebron V 118 LA
4 Disfraz Carmouche K 116 LA
5 Ocasta Lenclud F 116 LA
6 Swift Warrior Castellano J J 116 LA
7 The Ole Gen Saez G 118 LA
8 Sorgho Martin E M Jr 116 LA
9 Swagger Jack Goncalves L R 116 LA



10th (5:31) Vinery Racing Spiral S. (G3)

1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Preachintothedevil Alvarado J 121 L
2 Positive Response Couton J 121 LA
3 Thirtyfirststreet Carmouche K 121 LA
4 Animal Kingdom Garcia Alan 121 LA
5 Son of Posse Mojica R Jr 121 LA
6 Rescind the Trade Valdivia J Jr 121 LA
7 Beachcombing Goncalves L R 121 LA
8 King Congie Castellano J J 121 LA
9 Taptowne Prescott R 121 LA
10 Decisive Moment Clark K D 121 LA
11 Twinspired Lebron V 121 LA
12 Glint Saez G 121 LA

[booner]

Originally Posted by Kasept

10th (5:31) Vinery Racing Spiral S. (G3)

7 Beachcombing Goncalves L R 121 LA

Didn't realize the connections were running him here. Was wondering why he scratched from the GP turf allowance last week.

[Merlinsky]

http://www.drf.com/news/spiral-stakes-day-turfway-park

The Spiral and the undercard are available for viewing on DRF's site. Scroll down for the live feed. The Hansel, Bourbonette Oaks, Rushaway, and Spiral are yet to come as I type this. Easy to access links to PPs and entries on the page.

There's video for pre-race analysis by the good folks of DRF, should anybody want some of that. Mike Battaglia appears to be offering some quick commentary between races, seems to be doing a good job. I've had a few blips in terms of buffering. Most of the time it fixes itself quickly, other times it takes a little refreshing.

[somerfrost]

Another lightly raced horse with weak pedigree win another race with significant purse.

[hockey2315]

Look at me! Look at me!

There's a reason there are sticky-ed threads w/ the names of stakes on them. . .

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Another lightly raced horse with weak pedigree win another race with significant purse.

I wouldn't call Animal Kingdom's pedigree weak.

Maybe not ideal for 10f on dirt in North America, but certainly not without substance.

[Kasept]

91 Beyer for Animal Kingdom

Haven't had a chance to watch a replay but I thought Decisive Moment had a good race considering the early pace.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Haven't had a chance to watch a replay but I thought Decisive Moment had a good race considering the early pace.

He ran extremely well if the fractions are right. . . 84 (+20) early pace fig while three wide.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I wouldn't call Animal Kingdom's pedigree weak.

Maybe not ideal for 10f on dirt in North America, but certainly not without substance.

Yeah this pedigree is far from weak. It's just largely European so it's not like it screams dirt. There's group and graded wins in the female family. His dam's a group 3 winner at 2000 meters. Animal Kingdom's damsire, Acatenango, was a multiple G1SW and beat Theatrical in Europe. Dancing Brave's not a nobody.

Looking forward to more talk about German bloodlines on ATR again at some point, Steve.

[Danzig]

leroidisanimeaux's dam, dissemble...half-sibling to hasili. dalicia, animal kingdoms dam, has several good races at 10-11f. interesting.

[somerfrost]

I should be more specific regarding what I mean by "weak"...I look at breeding from the standpoint of how many CDR's are in first four generations of pedigree. Many horses are excellent runners but not great sires. No horse has won the Derby with fewer than 16 points in his DP since 1950 (Middleground with 12). Animal Kingdom has 8 (DP: 2-0-6-0-0...Blushing Groom (B,C) appears in third generation, Lyphard (C) appears twice in 4th. European horses are included in CDR's so that's not a factor. Only the great Count Fleet has won the Derby with fewer than 12 points, he had but 4 in 1943....Count Fleet was, in my opinion, one of the all time greats. Not saying this alone guarantees Animal Kingdom can't win but the history is certainly against him and that's why I consider his pedigree weak, especially as it translates into Derby success.

[Dahoss]

I'd say the fact he's a turf/synth horse will prevent him from winning the Derby. Not outdated pedigree nonsense.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'd say the fact he's a turf/synth horse will prevent him from winning the Derby. Not outdated pedigree nonsense.

You might not put any faith in CDR's but that's your opinion, I have a right to mine without the scoffing...it's not nonsense to me.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Many horses are excellent runners but not great sires. No horse has won the Derby with fewer than 16 points in his DP since 1950 (Middleground with 12). Animal Kingdom has 8 (DP: 2-0-6-0-0...Blushing Groom (B,C) appears in third generation, Lyphard (C) appears twice in 4th. European horses are included in CDR's so that's not a factor. Not saying this alone guarantees Animal Kingdom can't win but the history is certainly against him and that's why I consider his pedigree weak, especially as it translates into Derby success.

Firstly, it's dubious to say that the "foreign" element in Animal Kingdom's pedigree is not a factor. While a few Euros might be included, I doubt that as much focus is paid to the happenings on racetracks there than in the States, especially where it concerns assigning Chef-De-Race status.

Acatenango is probably the most successful German sire in history. Plenty of his offspring have performed at the elite international level as well.

Secondly, a lot of CDR assignments are made retrospectively and of dubious merit. It's easy to make all the Derby winners from 1950 onwards have a certain number of profile points (I like how the CD and DI are no longer the gold standard for Derby winners by the way) when you don't actually start assigning CDR status until 1980. A lot of CDRs probably achieved their "status" on the basis of those very same Derby winners. Therefore, horses sired by relatively young sires (such as Leroidesanimaux) are automatically biased against.

Recently, they made the hardly influential sire Lost Code, a CDR. He had a run there in the last few years as the broodmare sire of a few decent sprinters (the best being Fabulous Strike) and for some reason became a CDR. As though they were trying to force Lost Code into being an important sire, they also made his own sire, Codex, a CDR, too. How convenient. Codex sired just 3 crops and died over 25 years ago. Now all of a sudden his descendants are inheriting superior genes?

Based on this laughable maneuvering, I would predict that Animal Kingdom's profile will be soon be bolstered in the near future. Soon, streaking stallion Candy Ride will be a CDR and probably his own sire Candy Stripes along with him. Candy Stripes is also the sire of Leroidesanimaux. So Animal Kingdom has a "sneaky good" profile. Just like Real Quiet and Strike The Gold...

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Soon, streaking stallion Candy Ride will be a CDR and probably his own sire Candy Stripes along with him. Candy Stripes is also the sire of Leroidesanimaux. So Animal Kingdom has a "sneaky good" profile. Just like Real Quiet and Strike The Gold...

Candy Ride was sired by Ride the Rails.

[Merlinsky]

Alan Garcia said "Wherever they want to go with this horse, I want to be there.” He's also riding Soldat isn't he? I assume he meant he wanted to ride the horse long term without locking in a Derby mount commitment, but AK's got the GS earnings to go to the Derby if they want. I'm sure they'll at least consider it. Alan's not the only one with more than one Derby possible at the moment. The inevitable musical jockeys situation is going to commence in a few weeks.

Fingers crossed on Jon Court finally making the Derby. He's on Archarcharch and Supreme Ruler (going in the Sunland Derby 3/27). He's riding for his father-in-law right? Should any of Jinks Fires' horses make the Derby field, I'd say Jon's got it locked in. Even if they don't go, a spot might open up.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

You might not put any faith in CDR's but that's your opinion, I have a right to mine without the scoffing...it's not nonsense to me.

That's the thing. I have a right to scoff at your high and mighty, non betting opinion. Stick to American Idol.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

That's the thing. I have a right to scoff at your high and mighty, non betting opinion. Stick to American Idol.

Because I have different opinions than you that makes me "high and mighty"....no, that just means I have a different opinion. It really easy to attack someone personally because they have different beliefs than you but it's really meaningless to do so. Regarding my betting....I do that at the track or OTW not on an internet board!

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Firstly, it's dubious to say that the "foreign" element in Animal Kingdom's pedigree is not a factor. While a few Euros might be included, I doubt that as much focus is paid to the happenings on racetracks there than in the States, especially where it concerns assigning Chef-De-Race status.

Acatenango is probably the most successful German sire in history. Plenty of his offspring have performed at the elite international level as well.

Secondly, a lot of CDR assignments are made retrospectively and of dubious merit. It's easy to make all the Derby winners from 1950 onwards have a certain number of profile points (I like how the CD and DI are no longer the gold standard for Derby winners by the way) when you don't actually start assigning CDR status until 1980. A lot of CDRs probably achieved their "status" on the basis of those very same Derby winners. Therefore, horses sired by relatively young sires (such as Leroidesanimaux) are automatically biased against.

Recently, they made the hardly influential sire Lost Code, a CDR. He had a run there in the last few years as the broodmare sire of a few decent sprinters (the best being Fabulous Strike) and for some reason became a CDR. As though they were trying to force Lost Code into being an important sire, they also made his own sire, Codex, a CDR, too. How convenient. Codex sired just 3 crops and died over 25 years ago. Now all of a sudden his descendants are inheriting superior genes?

Based on this laughable maneuvering, I would predict that Animal Kingdom's profile will be soon be bolstered in the near future. Soon, streaking stallion Candy Ride will be a CDR and probably his own sire Candy Stripes along with him. Candy Stripes is also the sire of Leroidesanimaux. So Animal Kingdom has a "sneaky good" profile. Just like Real Quiet and Strike The Gold...

From Dr Roman's site:
Codex went to stud at Tartan Farm in Ocala but died tragically after siring just three crops. However, from only 106 foals he got 10 stakes winners (9%) including Grade 1 winners Lost Code, Badger Land (which went on to become one of South Africa's premier sires, leading the general sire list twice) and Coup de Fusil. In addition, his runners achieved an extraordinary Average-Earnings-Index (AEI) of 3.28, a figure superior to that of A.P. Indy or Storm Cat and better than any sire among the current North American leaders in 2010.

Lost Code, out of Smarter By the Day, by Smarten, was among the leading runners of his generation, winning fifteen times in 27 starts over three years with earnings in excess of two million dollars. He won the Grade 1 Arlington Classic at three and the Grade 1 Oaklawn Handicap at four, as well as seven other graded stakes. He stood first at Vinery in Kentucky and then at Legacy farm in Virginia where he died prematurely at age 17 in 2001. During his relatively short stud career he sired at least 53 stakes winners (9% from foals) including the multiple Grade 1-winning, top class sprinting mare, Kalookan Queen. His daughters have produced champion and Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Squirtle Squirt, Japanese champion miler Hat Trick, Grade 1-winning sprinter Fabulous Strike, Grade 1 sprint winner and Arkansas Derby (G2) winner Gayego, multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter Rite Moment and multiple graded stakes-winning sprinter/miler Desert Code. Lost Code ranked among the top 100 leading North American broodmare sires every year between 2001 and 2009

The AWD of North American open stakes races won by Lost Code is 8.91 furlongs while that for Codex is 9.17 furlongs. Below is a summary displaying their AWDs as a runner, a sire and as a broodmare sire of North American open stakes winners.
AWD (furlongs)
Runner Sire Broodmare Sire
Codex 9.17 8.95 8.50
Lost Code 8.91 7.06 6.37

Despite the similarity of their AWD on the track, the difference in their distance influence on succeeding generations is striking. This is an excellent illustration of a basic premise of Dosage methodology, first articulated by Varola. He noted that the characteristics transmitted by chefs-de-race at stud are not necessarily those they expressed on the track themselves. This concept is extremely important when trying to observe prepotence for aptitudinal type.

Recently, when Unbridled was named a chef-de-race, we introduced a new metric to help identify prepotence for type. The intention was to determine whether the winning distance profile of an individual sire's runners differs significantly from an opportunistic pattern that merely reflects the average distance distribution for the runners of all sires. Large deviations from the average suggest a greater predictability of aptitudinal type transmission, a key component of prepotence. The following graphics clearly show that both Codex and Lost Code have profiles greatly skewed from the average.

We can verify the discrepancy between Lost Code's notional type contribution (i.e., without invoking a prepotent influence of his own) and the real-world performance of his close up descendants through an examination of Dosage figures. The data derived from 69 North American open stakes races in which Lost Code is either the sire or broodmare sire reveal an AWD of 6.76 furlongs with an average Dosage Profile (DP) of 4.80-3.78-6.00-0.19-0.59, equivalent to an average Dosage Index (DI) of 3.28 and an average Center of Distribution (CD) of 0.74. Based on the results of over 25,000 races since 1983, the predicted average DI and CD for North American open stakes winners at 6.76 furlongs are 4.79 and 0.98, respectively. Accordingly, Lost Code's contribution to succeeding generations currently fails to capture the the additional speed he predictably transmits. His present contribution to the DP of his foals is 0-2-3-0-1 (equivalent to DI 1.40 and CD 0.00) which hardly reflects his attributes as a consistent sire and broodmare sire of high class sprinters and sprinter/milers. The objective, then, is to bring the figures for descendants of Lost Code back in line with those of the general population having similar performance characteristics.

By assigning Lost Code as a split Brilliant/Intermediate chef-de-race and Codex as a split Intermediate/Classic chef-de-race, Lost Code's revised figures are average DP 11.06-13.17-9.13-0.72-0.59, average DI 5.07 and average CD 0.96, close to the predicted figures. His revised contribution to the DP of his descendants is now 8-14-7-0-1 (equivalent to DI 5.67 and CD 0.93) as a sire and 4-7-3-0-0 (equivalent to DI 8.33 and CD 1.07) as a broodmare sire. These are more realistic and they parallel the decrease in the AWD for Lost Code between his first- and second-generation influence.

Similarly, Codex's figures change from average DP 3.64-3.32-4.36-0.50-1.89, average DI 2.25 and average CD 0.31 to average DP 3.64-10.46-11.50-0.50-1.89, average DI 2.63 and average CD 0.47. The predicted figures are average DI 2.35 and average CD 0.54, reasonably close to the new figures. Additionally, the figures for Badger Land as a sire and broodmare sire change from average DP 2.95-4.55-6.41-1.00-0.91, average DI 2.03 and average CD 0.35 to average DP 2.95-10.55-12.41-1.00-0.91, average DI 2.46 and average CD 0.47. The predicted figures at his AWD of 8.99 furlongs in North America are average DI 2.20 and average CD 0.51, confirming the new figures are a significant improvement.

Having brought the figures for Codex and his sons satisfactorily in line with those for the breed at large, we are confident in assigning Codex to the Intermediate/Classic categories and Lost Code to the Brilliant/Intermediate categories as the 212th and 213th chefs-de-race.