Updated Derby Chances - Prep Recap

[GenuineRisk]

For the alot haters:

http://hyperboleandahalf.blogspot.co...verything.html

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A repeat of his race in November - over the CD tracks - will easily win the KY Derby - and his two performances this year are about as good as the last two performances of any horse in this crop pointing for the KY Derby.

you are kidding me right? then you post that i'm analytically incompetent...even though i pretty much make my living doing this. its also part of the reason i get mad at your drival. people actually buy this crap as knowledge. his last two performances have been dreadful for a horse thats supposed to be the best.....oh yeah, he ran as good as tobys corner, archarcharch, nehro....ect.....the other guy was more accurate than your crappy 19.5%...that horse is probably 19.5% chance of even running. of course i'm hoping he does. every trainer dreams of having his 1-10 shot throwing out the anchor after a dawdling pace compared to the ark derby...maybe you should increase it to 33.3%????? thats how i make my money betting horses that will pay the same to show as they do to win...when they are 1-10.....lol...gee, i better bet him to win i'll get 2.20 instead of 2.10 to show.........people are billliant and i'm always there to cash on their brilliance. i heard it on good authority that uncle mo ran faster than blame and zenyatta at churchill too.....lol....

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

you are kidding me right? then you post that i'm analytically incompetent...even though i pretty much make my living doing this. its also part of the reason i get mad at your drival. people actually buy this crap as knowledge. his last two performances have been dreadful for a horse thats supposed to be the best.....oh yeah, he ran as good as tobys corner, archarcharch, nehro....ect.....the other guy was more accurate than your crappy 19.5%...that horse is probably 19.5% chance of even running. of course i'm hoping he does. every trainer dreams of having his 1-10 shot throwing out the anchor after a dawdling pace compared to the ark derby...maybe you should increase it to 33.3%????? thats how i make my money betting horses that will pay the same to show as they do to win...when they are 1-10.....lol...gee, i better bet him to win i'll get 2.20 instead of 2.10 to show.........people are billliant and i'm always there to cash on their brilliance. at least you finally gave up on to honor and serve...oh yeah, you didn't, he got hurt and spared the embarrassment. i heard it on good authority that uncle mo ran faster than blame and zenyatta at churchill too.....lol....

I've really tried to be tolerant of your blinkers induced narrow field of vision, but man, you are a dolt.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've really tried to be tolerant of your blinkers induced narrow field of vision, but man, you are a dolt.

Perhaps, but his writing style is so aesthetically pleasing!

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I've really tried to be tolerant of your blinkers induced narrow field of vision, but man, you are a dolt.

What does the fact that you and others basically call Uncle Mo the horse to beat solely off his 2 yo form make you?

Hopefully, nothing more serious than just being a Mo-tard.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by paulo537

What does the fact that you and others basically call Uncle Mo the horse to beat solely off his 2 yo form make you?

Hopefully, nothing more serious than just being a Mo-tard.

Are people really saying that?
I guess everybody has their own definition of what "horse to beat" means but I don't see anybody in this thread saying he's the "horse to beat." You might think DrugS gave him too high of a chance to win on his list, and you might be right, but based on his percentages he is still saying he thinks there's over an 80% chance that Uncle Mo will NOT win the Derby. To me, that isn't exactly a huge endorsement of Mo or constitute "basically" calling him the horse to beat.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Perhaps, but his writing style is so aesthetically pleasing!

[paulo537]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Are people really saying that?
I guess everybody has their own definition of what "horse to beat" means but I don't see anybody in this thread saying he's the "horse to beat." You might think DrugS gave him too high of a chance to win on his list, and you might be right, but based on his percentages he is still saying he thinks there's over an 80% chance that Uncle Mo will NOT win the Derby. To me, that isn't exactly a huge endorsement of Mo or constitute "basically" calling him the horse to beat.

"Most likely winner."

"Fair Value favorite."

"Highest percentage likelihood to win."

"Horse to beat."

Is there really any difference? If there is, I don't know it. Perhaps upon his return DrugS will toss me a clue.

And really, it's nothing other than internet talk about one race. Not incredibly important but when you still think U Mo is the likeliest winner 3 weeks out with what is known AND when you categorize people who disagree with you with various cognomens, you can't be totally shocked when you are offered a small taste of what your own cooking.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by paulo537

"Most likely winner."

"Fair Value favorite."

"Highest percentage likelihood to win."

"Horse to beat."

Is there really any difference? If there is, I don't know it. Perhaps upon his return DrugS will toss me a clue.

Again, as I've already stated, I guess everybody has their own opinion of what an expression like that means. To me, "horse to beat" means a horse that is likely to win the race. Saying that you think there's an 80+% chance that the horse won't win strikes me as something quite different.
Personally I don't know what to think of Mo's chances in the race. I doubt if I bet him, but I can't really blame people who do because at least he's actually run a fast route race before in his life.....something which the overwhelming majority of this field has NEVER done.

[estreetposse]

I'm confused...is Mawhip a he or a she?

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

you are kidding me right? then you post that i'm analytically incompetent...even though i pretty much make my living doing this. its also part of the reason i get mad at your drival. people actually buy this crap as knowledge. his last two performances have been dreadful for a horse thats supposed to be the best.....oh yeah, he ran as good as tobys corner, archarcharch, nehro....ect.....the other guy was more accurate than your crappy 19.5%...that horse is probably 19.5% chance of even running. of course i'm hoping he does. every trainer dreams of having his 1-10 shot throwing out the anchor after a dawdling pace compared to the ark derby...maybe you should increase it to 33.3%????? thats how i make my money betting horses that will pay the same to show as they do to win...when they are 1-10.....lol...gee, i better bet him to win i'll get 2.20 instead of 2.10 to show.........people are billliant and i'm always there to cash on their brilliance. i heard it on good authority that uncle mo ran faster than blame and zenyatta at churchill too.....lol....

What does pretty much make my living doing this mean? The few opinions you have given before races have been dreadful. I think if you actually took a few seconds and tried to understand what DrugS is saying, it might make more sense. Or maybe someone could read it to you and explain it. He's not saying he is betting Uncle Mo, or would want to right now. He's just talking about odds.

Also, does ignoring all questions or responses that make you look foolish mean they don't exist? You're not the only one that does this, but you're one of the best.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by paulo537

And really, it's nothing other than internet talk about one race. Not incredibly important but when you still think U Mo is the likeliest winner 3 weeks out with what is known AND when you categorize people who disagree with you with various cognomens, you can't be totally shocked when you are offered a small taste of what your own cooking.

Listen up.

It's not that he disagrees. It's that he constantly harps on and on about it, and he also totally misses the point of what was trying to be said in the post in the first place. If he would take more than a quarter of a second to try to understand that post instead of responding with his usual knee jerk nonsense, maybe I and most other people would be spared his drivel.

By the way, I am dazzled by your ability to work cognomen into a sentence.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What does pretty much make my living doing this mean? The few opinions you have given before races have been dreadful. I think if you actually took a few seconds and tried to understand what DrugS is saying, it might make more sense. Or maybe someone could read it to you and explain it. He's not saying he is betting Uncle Mo, or would want to right now. He's just talking about odds.

Also, does ignoring all questions or responses that make you look foolish mean they don't exist? You're not the only one that does this, but you're one of the best.

I caught that too, but thought it better to not ask such foolish questions.

[DaTruth]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I caught that too, but thought it better to not ask such foolish questions.

Cans and copper can only pay so much.

[slotdirt]

I thought johnny pinwheel was the guy who said just a few months back that he hardly ever bets, though I could be confusing him with someone who was darted. And they probably deserved it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I thought johnny pinwheel was the guy who said just a few months back that he hardly ever bets, though I could be confusing him with someone who was darted. And they probably deserved it.

Johnny Pinwheel has a high post race handle.

Pre-race? Not so much.

[johnny pinwheel]

yup, i'm a moron and this drugs guy is great,,,,,he sucks.....19.5% to win.....anyone with half a brain saw this coming.......oh, he ran so "great" last two starts......it was like 10% this horse would even run .....but i'm an idiot......lol..hey, drugs.....you should really try doing something else. how much do you make at the track? the mo rons are crying in their beer today...i only wish they ran him ...they would of bet him anyway. archarcharch, dialed in, nehro and shackleford....theres my before the race handle morons...have a nice day at work monday morning.....lol. i never say before...theres at least 3 threads where i say this horse probably will scracth

[slotdirt]

Way to go out on a limb there with those selections.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Way to go out on a limb there with those selections.

yeah right....if ho mo does not scracth archarcharch is at least 12-1

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

yup, i'm a moron and this drugs guy is great,,,,,he sucks.....19.5% to win.....anyone with half a brain saw this coming.......oh, he ran so "great" last two starts......it was like 10% this horse would even run .....but i'm an idiot......lol..hey, drugs.....you should really try doing something else. how much do you make at the track? the mo rons are crying in their beer today...i only wish they ran him ...they would of bet him anyway. archarcharch, dialed in, nehro and shackleford....theres my before the race handle morons...have a nice day at work monday morning.....lol. i never say before...theres at least 3 threads where i say this horse probably will scracth

Bob?

Is that you?