5/14: Belmont ($25k C/O); Churchill (8th-11th)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


$25k P6 carryover at Elmont today; Looks like rain will be avoided..


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Forty Prayers 10-1 WON ($13.00)
Next Best: #4 Iguazu 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Payout 4-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Richie's Rocket 8-1 6th


6th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Always liked and rooted for #8 Lakeside Chapel even before Dee Tee Stables ended up with her 2yo sibling Toy Cannon. Fun race with nice prices on her (8-1) and #1 Nurse Dolce (6-1) with both having big shots in balanced, contentious field..

Best Value: #1 Nurse Dolce 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Makeminechocolate 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Lakeside Chapel 8-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Victory at Last 7-2 2nd


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Saratoga Steve 7-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Good to Be Me 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Con the Cat 8-1 5th
Super Add: #1a Final Ending 3-1 11th (Purse only)


8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Gimme Credit 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #7 Compliance Officer 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Sky Blue Pink 6-1 5th
Best Value: #13 Midnight Billy 15-1 7th


9th: 57th Peter Pan (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Head-scratching edition of this fine standard, long the major NY advance of the Belmont. Quirky and deep field assembled with several faces signed on that you don't see often on this circuit in Von Hemel, Whiting and Ortiz (Manny, not Paulino). Styles are fair and balanced from speed to stalkers to closers, so everyone should get a chance to their thing. Spread if you can afford it because there aren't many auto-tosses here..

Most Likely: #2 Uncle Brent 4-1 9th
Best Value: #11 Monzon 15-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Alternation 6-1 WON ($9.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Bold Deed 20-1 6th


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Best Value: #11 Factual 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Annawon 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: 2 Departures 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Happy End 6-1 11th


<$150 P5 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-8
6: 1-2-8
7: 9
8: 3-7-10-13
9: 2-11
10: 11

3x3x1x4x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-9
8: 3-7-10-13
9: 2-6-11
10: 2-3-8-11

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Lightshaft 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Family Matter 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Splendor Town 7-2 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #5 Avolo 6-1 2nd


8th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

To paraphrase Beetlejuice, "Turf sprints.. You hate 'em, I hate 'em.."

Most Likely: #10 Late SCR
Next Best: #8 Birdie Beats Par 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Five Star David 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Kajiwara 9-5 WON ($3.20)


9th: OC/N3L, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Quirky short field features the return of Sanford winner Maybesomaybenot..

Most Likely: #4 Expecting Cash 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Derivative 9-2 WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #6 Maybesomaybenot 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #3 City Cool 3-1 2nd


10th: Unbridled Sidney, 3+, 5f-OFF THE TURF (DD, Super)

Oh good! Another turf sprint, and a stake this time. Actually seems formful..

Most Likely: #2 Wild About Marie 5-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Hungry Tigress 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Little Polka Dot 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Speedacious 8-1 3rd


11th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Second Street City 4-1 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #2 Miss Woods 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Wild Tizzy 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Bond's Babe 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Oddity 12-1 6th


<$75 P5 Play:

7: 1-3-8
8: 3-6-8-10
9: 4-5
10: 2-4
11: 2-5-6

3x4x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-6-8-10
9: 4-5-6
10: 1-2-4-8
11: 2-5-6

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (2/3/7/9/10-5-1-5) 4 Correct Paid $131.00 x 2 = $262.00


Good luck!
Steve

[declansharbor]

Anyone know why Maybesomaybenot has been on the shelf for this long?


Thank you Steve and BOL at the windows today !!

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Anyone know why Maybesomaybenot has been on the shelf for this long?

Thank you Steve and BOL at the windows today !!

Thx Mike. G/L today to you and everybody! In car heading to Rochester for Tina's son Spencer's graduation from U of R...

(Can't find a word as to what sidelined Maybeso by the way...)

[Kasept]

BEL SCR'S

Race 1 #8 Ultimo Principe
Race 2 #1A Idol Image
Race 6 #9 Honey Due Tell, #10 Tapitude, #11 Moshe Diane, #12 Judicial Leader
Race 7 #7 Solutionfinders, #1 Counterspy, #2B Logical Order, #13 Reading Group
Race 8 #1 Coljak, #9 Preachintothedevil, #12 Prince Dubai, #14 Bishop of Nola, #15 Shrimp Dancer, #16 Wishful Tomcat
Race 9 #1 Isn't He Perfect
Race 10 #13 Shine Box, #14 Riverview Road, #15 Believe in You

[tanner12oz]

whats the deal with horses running for purse only? have seen it a few times and am wondering the reason

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

whats the deal with horses running for purse only? have seen it a few times and am wondering the reason

Usually happens when there's a late scratch of one of two entrymates, they give you a refund instead of sticking you with the lone entrymate. I've seen it happen with non-entries though, so I'm not sure what that's about.

[tanner12oz]

nice job today steve..payouts werent there but the winners were...gotta work with what ya got..l.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

nice job today steve..payouts werent there but the winners were...gotta work with what ya got..l.

Thx tanner! The P5 would have been a nice treat today at CD, but when they come off the turf like that, you have to be happy with whatever you come away with...

Belmont was tough, and nobody had a better day I imagine than Andy if you were following his lead. Hope the weather doesn't spoil the double C/O sequence tomorrow.

Hope everybody did well.

[the boss]

Thank you for the great radio coverage you have always done.You are always well prepared and interesting!! even back with JJ you made the show!!
Thank you for the Churchill coverage ,it was compelling radio.You are my favorite show at sirius.How do we get them to take this show "sIRIUS-ly" AND NOT GOOF AROUND WITH IT.
Great handicapping with churchill pk 4 .Hit with you and gus!! Gus is super .Never lose him!!! Safe drive and good grad day 2 u all!!